Saturday, September 26, 2015

When It Comes To The Middle East All Roads Now Lead to Moscow



L.A. Times: With Syria, Vladimir Putin positions himself on global security stage

Russian President Vladimir Putin is maneuvering for a comeback as a major player in global security with his brash military buildup in Syria and an ardent appeal for coordinated action with Western powers to defeat Islamist extremism.

Putin's Syria initiative, to be unveiled Monday in his first address to the U.N. General Assembly in a decade, has been unleashed in the Kremlin leader's signature fashion: move in with boots and arms on the ground, creating a reality of Russian influence in the war zone and, in this case, leaving the United States and its allies to choose between spurning Russia's strategy or capitulating in order to get its help in eradicating a common enemy.

Kremlin officials have been on a diplomatic blitz for months that analysts see as having the twin objectives of diverting attention from Russia's disastrous interference in Ukraine and of spotlighting the more ominous threat to global security posed by extremist militias such as Islamic State.

WNU Editor: When I was growing up during the Cold War the Soviet Union's influence in the Middle East was confined to Syria and Egypt .... but the relationship was distant and in the case of Egypt .... short live. Today .... Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, the Palestinians, even Israel .... everyone in the Middle East is now acknowledging that a huge geopolitical shift is occurring, and that the country that everyone needs to be close to is Russia. This shift is even more remarkable because all that Russia has done in the past month is send to Syria some planes, military equipment, and soldiers .... as well as making promises to combat the Islamic State. This is not enough to make a geopolitical shift .... what this tells me is that there is more at play right now .... and on the top of my list is the decline and loss of credibility of the United States. The disastrous and amateurish U.S. attempt to arm and motivate a Syrian rebel army coupled with an air campaign against the Islamic State that is now showing limited (if any success) .... has not helped the situation. But I think the event that future historians will point to as that pivotal moment when everything started to change was .... the capitulation of the U.S. to Iran's nuclear program.  The more that I think about it .... and the more that I talk with my friends from the region and/or are in the region .... they are all telling me the same thing .... it was after the Iranian nuclear agreement was announced, that  in a subtle way everyone started to realize that the U.S. no longer has the resources or even the will power to continue being a major influence in the region. And while it is true that the U.S. military presence in the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia is huge .... the U.S. political and diplomatic presence and focus is no longer what it once was .... and everyone is starting to notice it. This lack of focus from the U.S. contrasts to Putin/Russia .... where the perception among many in the Middle East is that Russia is engaged, and wants to make a difference. What Russia is going to do in the next few weeks in Syria will reverberate throughout the region .... and Putin knows this .... and Obama knows this. I think this is the reason why Russian President Putin wants to meet President Obama this Monday .... he wants to tell him personally that Russia is going to launch a limited military campaign against the Islamic State and selected Syrian rebel groups, and that the U.S. should either coordinate their air campaign with Russia, or stay out of the way. And then (I predict) the next big story from the Middle East will be China aligning itself with Russia on what to do in the Middle East.

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