U.S. President Barack Obama (R) meets with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington September 4, 2015. REUTERS/GARY CAMERON
John Hannah, Foreign Policy: It’s Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse
As if there weren’t already enough problems to worry about in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia might be headed for trouble. From plummeting oil prices to foreign-policy missteps to growing tensions with Iran, a confluence of recent events is mounting to pose some serious challenges for the Saudi regime. If not properly managed, these events could eventually coalesce into a perfect storm that significantly increases the risk of instability within the kingdom, with untold consequences for global oil markets and security in the Middle East.
Here are some of the percolating problems that could throw the country off kilter.
WNU Editor: This is the 800 lb. gorilla in the room that everyone is trying their best to avoid looking at. Short of having nuclear weapons deployed and used in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia in chaos is the worst case scenario imaginable. The impact on the energy markets alone would put every major economy in a recession, and in countries like China .... a dangerous situation for a government that is dependent on a growing economy to maintain stability and peace. This Foreign Policy post is behind a "free membership" wall, but if you can read it do so .... it is my must read post for today.
5 comments:
I think the better question is what happens when Saudi Arabia collapse not if it collapses. Avoiding the issues is NOT going to be helpful in the least.
Since it is going to collapse and cannot be prevented, foreign policy strategists need to work with this assumption in mind. From this, we need to develop plans and strategies accordingly.
While its unlikely, perhaps we can help control the collapse and ensure someone who represents our interests takes control. A "puppet" government if one will. Again, this is VERY unlikely to occur nor does there seem any realistic way to bring about such a turn of events. The most likely scenario is a new government in lockstep with Iran and Russia. As such, we probably should be looking on ways to better our relations with these major powers starting with Russia. Trying to avoid reality helps on one!!
I agree it's only a matter of time before a collapse happens, and since it's so important NATO had better be prepared to take and hold those oil fields, and once taken, never allow the Saudis any control over the oil again, it just to vital to the west.
The aberrant Godfather of terrorist misogynist Islamic fascism, traitor to the Arab nation, and decrepit feudal theocracy, will be with us no more.
We should have labelled their ambassador Persona Non Grata years ago and frozen all of their assets in Canada.
But that would mean getting the aberrants out of power in Canada first.
TWN,
In theory your idea is a good one however there are some problems with it. 1.)The US military is worn down and depleted from continuing operations around the world to the point that basic national defense is problematic and a mission of this magnitude would be virtually impossible. 2.)It seems unlikely that enough other NATO allies would sign off n such a mission as to make it feasible. 3.)This would require a complete adjustment in US thinking. As a non imperial power, the US is not accustomed to operating in this manner. US forces are already suffering from devastatingly low morale. None of them signed on for missions like this and to suggest such a mission would only cause morale to plummet even further. This would place the already precarious nature of US national defense in an even more precarious situation.
When Saudi Arabia collapses, the most likely scenarios are, in this order, 1.)a new government backed by the Russia/Iran/Syria side or 2.) a government backed by ISIS and/or its supporters.
With Russian involvement in Syria now scenario 2 became far less likely and even if it materialized would be very short lived before the Russians and their allies took over. As such, US policy makers and even NATO need to be preparing for this reality and determining how to act accordingly.
Again, its going to happen no matter what we do. (Okay the red sea could part or some other supernatural miracle could happen and something else could happen.) We should try and look for ways we can help the Russians here. If we can assist them, this may save them time, money, lives, or all of the above. Perhaps we could have their appreciation or even their gratitude and this may mend relations between us and them. As I've stated before numerous times, hostile relations with the world's most powerful country is a VERY BAD idea that needs to remedied IMMEDIATELY!!
Very respectfully a policy of NATO taking over Saudi Arabia is an unrealistic one even if optimal. As such, better to stay within the realm of reality as opposed to fantasy.
I'm from one of those NATO countries you mentioned and I would have absolutely no interest whatsoever in going to Saudi Arabia to sieze an oil field or any other (damn) thing.
Now, I would be more than amenable to going to Syria to help set up hospitals and vaccination programs. After all, as a NATO member, we owe it to them.
In fact, I'd have no problem at all leaving NATO if Canada working with the Government of Syria and the Russians was an issue for the other members.
Post a Comment