Thursday, June 23, 2016
My Take On Today's EU Referendum In Britain
WNU editor: I do not live in Britain ....so my prediction and analysis comes from what I read, hear, and my gut.... and what my gut is telling me is that the vote to Remain will poll around 55%. Reason why .... (1) people do not like change (unless they are hurting), (2) a massive and sustained fear campaign against Brexit (a campaign that has had an impact), (3) the murder of Jo Cox that helped to kill the momentum for the Leave movement, (4) national security leaders raising concerns that national security would be "weaker" in the event that Britain should 'Leave', (5) numerous groups that have a vested interest to remain in the EU and have mobilised to maintain the status quo, and (6) threats from European governments that retribution will be their option of choice when it comes to their dealings with a future (but separated) U.K.. Yup .... I can understand why many voters would be worried to go down this "uncharted road" with a "Leave" victory.
As to how would I vote .... my experience with countries that break-up has never been good. (Soviet Union being my personal experience). But the EU is not a country .... it is an alliance of countries under an institutional and bureaucratic umbrella that manages and regulates the financial and trade affairs of these nations. This referendum (IMHO) should be based on the question ... has the EU done a good job .... and has the U.K.'s priorities been respected and enhanced in this alliance or will it be more enhanced if they break-free. For some .... the answer to Remain is yes (billionaires like the Beckham family and JK Rowling come to my mind) .... but for others the answer is clearly in the Leave column. As to what is my take .... my read of the situation is that the EU is a failed institution. The ongoing debt financial crisis in Greece, Spain, and other "have-not countries" has caused considerable harm, and coupled with the unwillingness to enforce EU borders has now opened the door to a refugee crisis that will only get worse. So I would vote 'Leave' .... and I would do so reluctantly because decades ago I did believe that the future of Europe was in a unified EU .... I just miscalculated on the important role that culture plays, the natural incompetence of big bureaucracies, the unwillingness of large bureaucracies to listen to what the people that they serve are saying, and .... more importantly .... the unwillingness to change policies when it is clear that the will of the people is against it.