Saturday, June 25, 2016

Why Were The Brexit Polls Wrong

A polling card and voting guide for the 2016 EU referendum. PA

The Guardian: How the pollsters got it wrong on the EU referendum

It was a bad night for the opinion polls, with few predicting the 52:48 split in favour of leave.

It wasn’t just a bad night for Europhiles and David Cameron, but also for pollsters, who misread the mood of the electorate in the run-up to the vote.

Of 168 polls carried out since the EU referendum wording was decided last September, fewer than a third (55 in all) predicted a leave vote.

The actual result on the night came in at 51.9% leave, 48.1% remain. Just 16 of 168 individual polls predicted a 52:48 split in favour of leave.

Read more ....

Update: Alarmed Britons Ask Pollsters: Why Didn’t You Warn Us? (NYT).

WNU Editor: Even the bookies got it wrong .... Bookies got EU vote wrong, Ladbrokes says (The Guardian)


James said...

To all the pollsters and pundits:

James said...