Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Is Another Full-Scale War About To Break-Out In Ukraine?

Radio Free Europe: Guns Of August: Fears Of Full-Scale War Return As Casualties Mount In Ukraine

MARYINKA, Ukraine -- Framed by a tiny cutout in the fortified bunker, this particular piece of no-man's land is tinted a blood-reddish orange by the setting summer sun.

It's hot as hell, and it's about to get hotter. When the sun goes down, the guns start blazing. And all that separates the men at their triggers is a grassy patch of land the size of a soccer field that is heavily mined. If you're a Ukrainian soldier here, you don't need binoculars to observe the enemy -- you just look in his direction.

It starts with a single shot from a Kalashnikov: Ziiip. Then another: Ziiip. And three more: Ziiip. Ziiip. Ziiip. Each shot whizzes dangerously closer. In the time it takes to boil an egg, the situation escalates as the rifles are joined by .50-caliber machine guns, mortars, and rocket-propelled grenades that explode with hollow thuds against the earth or cottages where the soldiers eat and sleep, showering everything with shrapnel. Within an hour, shells from howitzers and tanks -- and eventually surface-to-surface Grad missiles, whose name is Russian for "hail" -- begin pummeling the scarred steppe.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: For the moment I do not see a full-scale war happening .... but a low intensity conflict .... definitely. But I was told something that sent a chill in me today .... a friend of mine in Kiev with good contacts in the government gave me a heads-up on what he thinks will happen next. If Donald Trump wins the Presidency, there is a perception (rightly or wrongly) that he would push Kiev to negotiate with the rebels and Russia, and to find a compromise. If Hillary Clinton wins the election ... all bets will be off, and both sides will restart the war since Kiev will feel that they will have the backing of a Clinton administration, and the rebels in the east will feel that they have nothing to lose.


B.Poster said...

I think your "chill" is spot on. If I understand you correctly from your numetous posts on this, you believe a negotiated settlement is needed here. If the Ukrainian government truly believes that they are more likely to have to begotiate should Mr. Trump win, this would be reason enough absent anything else to vote for Mr. Trump.

With all due respect neither Mr. Trump nor the US government can "push" the Ukrainan governnent to do anything. What they can do is withdraw support from the Ukrainian government which would likely lead to a change in behavior.

America has HUGE problems right now and Russian support is likely going to be needed to solve many of these problems. As suvh, prudent policy would be to work onnimproving relations with Russia and putting as much distance as possible between us and the Ukrainian government.

The Ukrainian government has two stark and basic choices right now. 1.)They can try to negotiate with the Russians for an end to the conflict and hope the Russians are willing. 2.) They can continue the fight ultimstely losing everything. If Mrs. Clinton were to encourage such a path and the Ukrainian government were foolish enough to embark on this, it would be sucidal for them, their citizens, and their nation. Furthermore anyone insane enough to support them would not be spared extreme pain.

If Mr. Trump really will push for a change in policy or at least reorient the American position and by his choice of advisors it seems likely he will, this would be reason enough by itself to vote for him. If Mrs. Clinton really is going to encourage a policy of more support for Ukraine, this is further proof of what I've long suspected. She is pathologically insane.

Jay Farquharson said...

There is already a negotiated settlement.

It's called Minsk II.

Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany all agreed to it, but as long as EU/US/IMF money continues to flow into Ukraine, along with weapons, aid and military training, Ukraine refuses to implement any of the Agreement.


fazman said...

Minks 2 was dead before the ink dried.

Miguel LM said...

"... the rebels in the East" ahahahahahahah

Its better to call it by the correct name : terrorist Russia