The Most Cynical Take On Friday's Jobs Number: "The Fed Will Not Hike In September With Trump In The Race": Citi
If traders have a feeling that there is a prevailing sense of blase disenchantment involving not only US macro data but the overall market, you are not alone. Here is arguably the best, and thus most cynical take, of Friday's impressive seasonal adjustment factor payrolls report, from Citi's Brent Donnelly:
Summer apathy and generally high frustration levels related to poor returns, extreme bearishness and existential questions around the death of price discovery due to central bank meddling.
Fed credibility is near zero so a strong number doesn’t matter much. This Fed is not going to hike two months before an election where the Republican candidate is seen by many as unfit to lead.
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WNU Editor: When I read this story 3 weeks ago .... US interest rates to stay unchanged for at least two months, says Fed (The Guardian) .... I said to a friend of mine who is heavily involved in the markets that he did not have to worry .... the U.S. Fed is going to do nothing that will disrupt this economy from now to the election. The reason for my analysis .... raising interest rates would impact the economy .... starting with the stock markets, followed by an impact on the value of the U.S. currency. And since any disruption in the economy would benefit Donald Trump .... the priority for the US Fed would be to keep a lid on things as much as possible .... and postpone the hard decisions until after November. Is this a cynical view on how the U.S. manages its economy .... yes. Is the U.S. Federal Reserve trying to influence the election .... you tell me.