Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Is Syria And Israel Moving Closer To War?

UN peacekeepers monitor the Syrian side of the Israeli-Syrian border from an army post at Mount Bental in the Golan Heights last July (photo credit: Tsafrir Abayov/Flash90)

L. Todd Wood, Washington Times: Israel and Syria move closer to war

Quneitra is the long destroyed and mostly abandoned former Syrian capital of the Golan Heights. Israel occupies two-thirds of the Golan since capturing it decades ago during the 20th-century Arab Israeli wars. However, with Russian assistance, the Syrian Army under the control of Bashar Assad has become more capable and brazen.

Over the last few days Syria fired two SA-2 surface to air missiles against Israeli aircraft that have operated freely in Syrian airspace for some time due to Assad’s weakened condition during the Syrian Civil War. Israel routinely destroys weapons shipments into Syria that it fears will be a threat to the Jewish State. The IDF also routinely retaliates against artillery rounds or rockets fired from Syria that land on Israeli soil.

However, one thing is already clear: The firing of two S-200 surface-to-air missiles in the Quneitra region was not a coincidence. The Syrian army released an official statement on the incident. This is the first known instance of Assad’s army retaliating to Israeli military activity in Syrian territory since the country’s civil war began some five-and-a-half years ago, reports the Jerusalem Post.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I do not see such a conflict happening .... especially as the Syrian civil war continues to rage (even with a ceasefire). And even if the Syrian civil war should end today .... it will take Syria decades to rebuild before they would be even remotely able to stand up to Israel.


fazman said...

Even behind putins coat tails?

B.Poster said...

"Even behind Putin's coat tails?" It seems as though they are having enough trouble defeating those opposed to Mr. Assad. As such, it seems unlikely that even though Mr. Putin controls the most powerful military in the world that even he while his nation's armed forces are heavily involved in Ukraine, Syria, and very lkkely elsewhere would want to expand military operations further to take on Israel.

Israel is one of the most powerful military forces on earth, it poses no threat to the Assad government that Russia is supposedly trying to preserve, and Israel will only move against Syria in very limited ways such as in response to artillery shells falling on Israeli territory originating from Syria. As such, supporting an Assad Syrian government on Israel would seem to make no sense from a Russuan perspective. Perhaps I'm wrong.

fazman said...

I was perhaps thinking more along the lines of supplying s400 etc tather than open conflict.
Justifiable seeing how it is still a sovereign state?

fazman said...

I was perhaps thinking more along the lines of supplying s400 etc tather than open conflict.
Justifiable seeing how it is still a sovereign state?

Jac said...

Nothing serious yet.

B.Poster said...

S 400s could be supplied, however, they'd have lomited to no utility against the groups that the Assad government is fighting and the only way is Israel gets involved is if the fight "spills over" into Israel. Otherwise Israel has no interest.

If Mexico was fighting a Civil War and there was "spill over" in terms of artillery fire, mortar shells, or anything of this type endangering Americans on the American side of tbe border, I'd expect the American government to respond appreciately by having the military intervene to try and stop such things. Any nation would be expected to act. Israel would be no exception.

Given the limited utility that S 400s would have agaibst the groups Assad is fighting, Israel's very limited and very justified involvement, and the skill of tbe IAF that would mean putting the crews opedrating the S 400s which would very likely consist of Russians in danger if/when Israel needs to act it would seem to have negative utility for Russia to deploy this system in Syria against Israel at this time.

A more sensible approach for Mr. Putin and his team would seem to be to coordinator with his Syrian allies to take care not to spill over into Israel. In which case, there's no Israeli involvement. Given Russia's already extensive involvement against multiple adversaries on multiple fronts it would seem imprudent to open up another front against Israel either for Russia or Syria.

We shall see. Prudence is not always followed.

B.Poster said...

I doubt the S400 would be particularly effective against an airforce of the caliber of Israel. Against a lesser airforce of lesser airforce like that of America I could see this system being very effective.

fazman said...

I think it would be very effective against israel as a area denial weapon

They have zero experience against this, its a different kettle of fish to the antiquated junk theyve faced in the past.

RRH said...

The Syrians just don't have the means to take on the Israelis right now. It's Hezbollah, even with its Syria commitment, that will be the force to contend with should war break out.

It's not like Iran would stand aside either.

Jay Farquharson said...

Given the IDF support for ISIS and the other jihadi's in the Golan,

A Syrian/Israeli conflict is assured, in the future.

RRH said...

No doubt scores will be settled when the "rebels" are subdued. The Israelis have definitely jumped in with the rest of the hyenas.

fazman said...

I get that the syrians are far to depleted to directly engage israel, but s400 will initally at least find its mark

RRH said...

I hear you fazman,

but that will be up to the Russians.

fazman said...


Caecus said...

The idea that the Syrians, who show no sign of defeating rebels who don't even comprise a unified and coordinated opposition, would start a war with a military that would defeat them even at full strength is comical.

Also a single SAM system is not going to deter an entire air force, no matter how good it is. The Russians would have to build an entire network of them along with other infrastructure to do so, and they I doubt they have the capacity to do so in Syria.

fazman said...

No they wouldnt start a war, but s400 is an area denial weapon that is a game changer
And it doesnt need to take on an emtire airforce. Those 2 israeli jets would have been destroyed and then they would have to reasses their entire stratedgy when dealing with stray rounds.

Anonymous said...

If the Alawite government clearly in the minority with Iran at its back
a major conflagration could ignite the whole region. With Assad's Shiite
backers and their proxy Hezbollah poised with weapons from Syria I would
not discount that something major could develop. In addition you have
Hamas firing an occasional missile from Gaza. Israel knows that Isis is
in the Sinai so Israel could face a two pronged attack. The coming months
will be a very tumultuous time for Israel and all folks in the region. But
remember always pray for the peace of Jerusalem

RRH said...

And the Russians do have a network of sorts which includes surface combatants armed with upgraded s300s. Which could be quickly expanded if necessary.