Monday, November 21, 2016

Are America’s Military Alliances Under A President Trump In Jeopardy?

U.S. President Barack Obama meets with President-elect Donald Trump (L) to discuss transition plans in the White House Oval Office in Washington, U.S., November 10, 2016. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Benjamin Schreer, Real Clear Defense/The Strategist: The Coming Crisis of America’s Military Alliances

As Philippe Legrain pointed out in The Strategist last week, the election of Donald Trump as the next US president threatens to further undermine the liberal international order. Thus far, US military alliances in Asia and Europe have been a cornerstone of this structure. There’s a good chance that many of these alliances could soon be faced with a major crisis.

The success story of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Europe and America’s system of bilateral alliances in Asia–Pacific has been based on three major components: a commonality of values, US leadership and credible military capabilities to deter a potential adversary. As Stephen Walt has pointed out, modern Western alliances are more likely to endure if they share similar values and when there is a large asymmetry of power within them, i.e. US leadership backed by its overwhelming military force. The commonality of values cannot be overstated. Indeed, it’s hoped that Trump’s security advisors read Geir Lundestad’s seminal article on the United States’ preeminent position during the Cold War as the reflection of an ‘empire by invitation’. Yet, it’s more likely that the Trump presidency will erode the critical ‘glue’ that holds these alliances together.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The "freak-out" from pundits and commentators over Donald Trump continues .... the above post included. I do not expect these military alliances to change .... nor do I expect any seismic changes in the short and medium future. What I do see is a long term shift on the need for member states in these many alliances to "pony-up" more money .... and that is eventually going to be the big issue in these many military alliances because many many of these governments have made it very clear that when it comes to budgeting the big money .... they have zero interest to do so.


B.Poster said...

I must confess I am getting a certain degree of enjoyment in watching these "pundits" freak out. This didn't need to happen. Had they been paying attention and not remained stuck in their own self created bubbles, they'd have seen the very real possibility of a Trump victory.

They along with various foreign leaders could have prepared accordingly and had plans in place for a Trump victory. These foreign leaders seem to have placed all of their "eggs" in the Hillary Clinton basket and there seems to be no "plan B" for many of them. It is NOT America's job to prepare for these people. If they are caught with their pants down so to speak, this is their problem NOT ours. America needs to act according to its interests and needs not to service the interests and needs of others especially not at its own expense as has been typical for the last few decades.

Now are these military "alliance" in jeopardy? I would certainly hope so. The current state of these "alliances" are not really alliances at all. What they are more like is one party the United States in this situation) supplying goods and services to another group (in this case NATO countries) and receiving little to nothing in return. Essentially the nature of this "alliance" is where one party abuses the other whereby NATO countries use and abuse the United States.

These nations have abused the United States for a number of decades. Generally an abuser does not release the abused party without a fight and often times the abused has difficulty breaking away.

A true alliance would be equal parties working together toward common interests and goals. The current nature of the "alliance" will need to change. It may not change overnight because as stated the abuser generally does not release the abused without a fight and the abused often lacks the self confidence to break away.

At a minimum, progress towards a change in the current situation will need to be demonstrated. Were I an appropriate member of team Trump I would calmly explain to the Germans and other nations to get working on time tables whereby American forces can be completely withdrawn and I want those time tables on the desks of the appropriate personnel by Inaguration Day. Failure to do so or to take the situation seriously will result in the complete end to this "alliance" effective immediately and without preconditions.

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