Thursday, April 13, 2017

China Warns That Military Force Cannot Resolve Tensions On The Korean Peninsula

This undated picture released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) via KNS on March 7, 2017 shows the launch of four ballistic missiles by the Korean People's Army (KPA)

Reuters: China warns against force as North Korea prepares celebration

Military force cannot resolve tension over North Korea, China said on Thursday, while an influential Chinese newspaper urged the North to halt its nuclear programme in exchange for Chinese protection.

With a U.S. aircraft carrier group steaming to the area and tension rising, South Korea said it believed the United States would consult it before any pre-emptive strike against the North.

Fears have been growing that the reclusive North could soon conduct its sixth nuclear test or more missile launches in defiance of U.N. sanctions and stark warnings from the United States that a policy of patience was over.

China, North Korea's sole major ally and benefactor, which nevertheless opposes its weapons programme, has called for talks leading to a peaceful resolution and the denuclearisation of the peninsula.

"Military force cannot resolve the issue," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters in Beijing.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: China is offering "protection" to North Korea in exchange that they halt their nuclear program .... State Paper Says China Would Protect a Denuclearized North Korea (US News and World Report/Reuters). But reports like this one makes me wonder if China is really serious .... China Says Its Trade With North Korea Has Increased (New York Times). And then I am reading stories like this one .... Kim Jong Un’s rockets are getting an important boost — from China (Washington Post).

Update #1: Here are two analysis on why we should not expect much from China when it comes to  North Korea ....

Why China Remains North Korea's Biggest Ally (Newsweek)
Trump thought China could get North Korea to comply. It’s not that easy. (Amanda Erickson, Washington Post)

Update #2: At least he is aware of it .... Trump on North Korea-China relations: 'I realized it's not so easy' (The Hill).


Jay Farquharson said...

minutes, I realized it’s not so easy,” Mr. Trump recounted. “I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power” over North Korea,” he said. “But it’s not what you would think.”

Jay Farquharson said...

"several high placed Trump admin. Officials state that the US is prepared to conduct a preemptive strike if N. Korea does a nuke test this weekend."

RussInSoCal said...

FYI the whole "Nork artillery will destroy Seoul" is BS.

RussInSoCal said...

Their rockets are a different matter, but there's far fewer systems / missiles.

Anonymous said...

@ FYI the whole "Nork artillery will destroy Seoul" is BS.

What are you talking about? Have you ever been to the DMZ? Do you know how close it is to Seoul?

fazman said...

I agree many analysts also agree. Much of NK artillery csn not reach Seoul, Seoul has an excellent civil Defence and public bomb shelter system.
The u.s and South Korea will enjoy 100% air superiority from the get go and cluster bomb tomshawkes will do their job on the many known positions.
NK well may fire much if their dumb rounds into the dmz causing havoc and destroying minefields in their rapid push to the border.
The option (which l think trump is counting on) that kim will do nothing aside from a limited retalitory strike for public consumption as his hand has been called, and heis nuke programme has been set back a decade.

AZuLike said...

My question is to you guys. We know they have tons of arty, but that being said. How well can they defend in a blitzkreeg style of attac

B.Poster said...

I do hope the most optimistic scenarios/analysis are correct as put forth by Fazman and Russ as opposed to the more pessimistic ones put forth anonymous. A broad range of analysis such as this exist. We cannot "know" who is correct until an actual war happens which we should hope does not!!

As everyone who reads this blog regularly know, I do not have an optimistic view point on this. In fact, I'm probably more pessimistic on this than even anon is here. There are professional "analysis" to back up any opinion on this all the way from the most rosy to the most dire. We read multiple sources, read them again, find still additional sources, read them, and read them again to be sure we don't miss something.

Even after all of this we must render our best judgments on any given situation. Sometimes we will be wrong.

Now if I'm right about the relative nature of the military capabilities of each participant here and US military advisors and POTUS are operating under the most optimistic viewpoints, we have a VERY SERIOUS problem.

The US might well "win" such a conflict but it would be VERY costly. Expect all 28,000 US forces currently in South Korea to be dead within the first 24 to 48 hours, expect North Korean operatives already in the US to attack the US mainland, and the reprisal from Russia/Syria/Iran is still coming for the actions in Syria. They may choose this time to carry out the reprisal while the US is busy with North Korea. Top Russian officials have already stated we are close to a state of war. They may use this time to launch an attack on America or its interests.

We may well need to go to war with North Korea. We better be certain of it before doing anything reckless.

Some analysis have suggested that the attack on Syria was done as a "message" to North Korea. Very respectfully anyone wishing to use the military to send "messages" might think about sticking to playing war games on their computers or mobile devices. The only time to use the US military is in defense of America, advancement of America's national interests, and it all should be done with the advice and consent of Congress who has the power to declare war. Furthermore we DON'T EVEN KNOW WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHEMCIAL ATTACK IN SYRIA!!

It's an absolute mystery to me how anyone could get 10 nations to sign off on a resolution condemning the Syrian government for this without even so much as an investigation of any reasonable type.

James said...

Regardless of experience, intel, or a host of informed opinions, to embark on such an enterprise is still a leap of faith. Certainty in outcome is something the gods forgot to give us, but we must balance that with the possibilities of inaction , which by nature are also uncertain.
Everyone has heard that Caesar said "Alea iacta est" before the Rubicon. Traditionally that has been translated as the "The die is cast", but another translation exists which I believe describes Caesar's thoughts and the situation much better "The dice are cast very high". Uncertainty.