Thursday, June 8, 2017

The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election

Nate Silver and Harry Enten, FiveThiryEight: The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election

On the morning of the U.S. presidential election, we pointed out that there were three scenarios for what might transpire that night, each of which were about equally likely. In Scenario No. 1, the polls would be spot-on; Hillary Clinton would win narrowly, with a 3-to-4 percentage point popular victory and somewhere on the order of 300 electoral votes. In Scenario No. 2, Clinton would outperform her polls, leading to a near-landslide victory and possible wins in states such as Arizona and Georgia which had traditionally favored Republicans. And in Scenario No. 3, Donald Trump would beat his polls; because the Electoral College favored Trump, even a small polling error in his favor would probably be enough to make him president. Scenario No. 3 is the one that transpired, but it wasn’t any more or less likely than the other two.

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WNU Editor: I am not in England .... so I have no direct "feed" on what is the sentiment in England right now on how the vote will turn out. What I do know is that this election should have been a "slum-dunk" for May .... and it appears to not be the case. Anyway .... we shall a good idea on what will be the results in the next 12 hours.

3 comments:

Mac Lynch said...

Hey from UK, I agree what should of been a landslide has turned into a very tight race. Many of my right leaning friends have (surprisingly) voted labour and lib dem, mostly because of may's abhorrent leadership and shock annoucments in these past few weeks.

Unknown said...

May's leadership regarding terrorism has annoyed many people big time! Trouble is Corbyn would be much worse.

Anonymous said...

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8519488391496270073&postID=910267365044301582&isPopup=true

WNU Editor: at least get the name of the country right. "England" is not having a gerenal election. There is no English parliament, government, or seat at the United Nations. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is having a general election. Calling the UK "England" is about as accurate as calling the CIS "the Ukraine" or calling the USA "the Confederate States of America".