Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Is North Korea No Longer A Nuclear Threat?

North Koreans watch the displayed local newspapers reporting the summit between the U.S. and North Korea at a subway station in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this photo taken by Kyodo June 13, 2018. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERS

Reuters: Trump says North Korea no longer a nuclear threat; North highlights concessions

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat, nor is it the “biggest and most dangerous problem” for the United States, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday on his return from a summit in Singapore with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The summit was the first between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader and followed a flurry of North Korean nuclear and missile tests and angry exchanges between Trump and Kim last year that fueled fears of war.

“Everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office,” Trump said on Twitter.

“There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!”

On Tuesday, Trump told a news conference after the summit that he would like to lift sanctions against the North but that this would not happen immediately.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Too early to make the claim that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat. But at this moment in time it is safe to say that North Korea will not be testing any nuclear weapons or missiles in the near future .... and in my book getting that concession from North Korea is a huge win for President Trump. A concession that I have also noticed has been completely ignored by the Western press, our foreign policy experts, pundits, and politicians (but not in Asia where the focus is more on what North Korea gave up for these talks to happen, not what the U.S. has given up).

16 comments:

Bob Huntley said...

On the other hand they may be satisfied with what they have at this point and are using the break in testing as a ploy to gain whatever, perhaps world acknowledgement they actually exist officially, while they dig out a new test site.

Anonymous said...

A brilliant and trenchant statement from our glorious President. He's on another level playing 8th dimensional chess while the rest of us can only guess at his genius.

That, or he's gone full blown dementia. Or he's just this stupid.

To claim that "it is safe to say that North Korea will not be testing any nuclear weapons or missiles in the near future ...." is ludicrous. NK conceded nothing. America made all the concessions. If Kim wakes up on the wrong side of the bed, he can launch anything he wants.

Trump conceded American prestige, he dissed our allies SK and Japan, says the dumbest things possible and you clowns defend him. He actually tweeted: "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea". That is mindbogglingly stupid. How can defend this nonsense?

B.Poster said...

Bob,

If this is the situation, all they had to do was simply to lessen tensions. A Summit wouldn't be necessary.

By simply lessening tensions pressure builds on America to lift its sanctions and domestic pressure grows on China and Russia not to enforce. By agreeing to the Summit format North Korea actually legitimizes the US position. Being seen shaking hands and seeing the nation's flags side by side America's position is legitimized and POTUS gets increased prestige.

If they want world acknowledgement, to dig out a new test site, or pretty much what ever all they had to do was lessen tensions. Agreeing to a Summit was unnecessary.

There are other factors at work. On the American side, after decades of perpetual war especially for the first two decades of the 21st century we MUST have peace. I'm sure DJT and his team understand this. As such, POTUS and his team are going to be very well versed on all the issues and HIGHLY motivated to negotiate in good faith.

As to what's going on with the NK side, I wish I knew. What is clear is there's more going on than you suggest as all of it is easily achievable without the Simummit format. By agreeing to it and having the public display hands America a HUGE victory.

B.Poster said...

Anon,

Getting China and Russia to agree to sanctions and getting NK to the summit was in fact brilliant. Furthermore American prestige has not been conceded. In fact, quite the opposite. The public displays, flag displays, handshakes, etc actually legitimize America's position and enhance American prestige.

I don't see how SK or Japan could feel "dissed." Our forces are still there in full force serving their interests with NO plans to get them out.

I think we can agree with the editor that it's to early to make the claim that NK is no longer a threat. Also, NK has likely learned all it can and achieved what it needed from tests. As such, I don't see this as a concession.

Additionally, in the current situation, the suspension of military drills is experiential common sense and is hardly a concession. In other words its a no brainer. Were this not such a serious situation to label it a concession would be comical.

The US concessions of most concern right now are the potential security guarantees to NK and the implied promises of financial aid. With our worn out military how do we do this? With our massive debt and worn out infrastructure how do we provide this financial aid to NK? Who provided security guarantees to America? Who provides a massive financial aid package to America so we can bring prosperity to our people? Such details will need to be worked out.

While things, at present, seem to be going nicely there's still much that can go wrong. As part of the analysis, understand America MUST have peace. I'm pretty POTUS is operating from this framework. Once this is understood, I think the actions taken by POTUS and his team are much easier to understand. If someone is in denial and thinks the pre Trump status quo was workable or could be successfully continued, such a person likely will be unable grasp any of this.

Anonymous said...

North Korea had nukes two weeks ago. Do they have them now? Yes? No? If no, where did they go? If yes, then what?

B.Poster said...

Skin,

Of course North Korea still has nuclear weapons. I'm not sure what kind of questions those are. The "threat" is in how likely they are to use them against us. Given the lessening of tensions, it seems they are less likely to use them against us than they would have a few months ago.

This is going to take some time to resolve and I do have some issues with the process. For example, there's no timetable that I'm aware to get US military personnel out. How do we provide security guarantees? How do we pay for NK infrastructure development? When counties like Japan and South Korea can nuclear arm very quickly should they choose to do so why would North Korea agree to irreversible nuclear disarment? While we seem headed in the right direction.

America MUST have peace. If the current path fails, there are other options.

Anonymous said...

The point is the fundamental order on the peninsula hasn't changed. NK is still very much a nuclear threat for now and years to come.

Why not make a more nuanced statement that acknowledges this? Why claim there is no longer a threat when there clearly is? What if Trump sees something on Fox and friends tomorrow morning that riles him up, he sends out some dumb tweet, that causes Kim to test again?

We're at the whim of an impetuous, glib fool and there is no mechanism in place to prevent him from doing something really stupid. It'd be great if the rest of were graded on the curve he is. "Well, if Trump didn't start mouthing or tweeting off in the first place, we wouldn't have gotten to this wonderful point. At least WW3 hasn't started. Here's your Nobel, sir!"

I'm sure Xi called Kim on the plane ride home and congratulated him. China is the real winner so far. What did NK concede? Anything?

B.Poster said...

Anon,

First paragraph, not much has changed. I don't think anyone expected it to over one meeting. Very importantly however due to the summit the US position is now legitimized. Also, tensions appear to have been further cooled. There is still much that can go wrong. As stated, things appear headed in the right direction.

Paragraph 2, I probably would have used a more nuanced statement such as "good progress has been made." Not being privy to the inner workings of this I don't know. Perhaps good enough relations have been forged that the statement is warranted, however, will the "deep state" act to undercut the process? They've already undercut careful diplomatic efforts with Russia. Also, remember tbe Canadian PM tried to humiliate Trump on the eve of these negotiations in what appears to be a calculated attempt to undermine our position. What other dirty tricks do they have?


3rd paragraph, to date POTUS has advanced the peace process further than has been in decades. Just a few months ago we were on the brink of war. The methods can be questioned but to date the results are positive. Again, much can still go wrong. Now as for stupid, it would've been downright dumb to not suspend war drills right now. Some people think this was a concession!!

As for the Nobel, POTUS isn't focused on that. That's for his critics to think about and for former never Trumpers who switched sides to fret over. Such people are generally either unserious, are ideologically blind, and are of questionable trustworthiness.

Last paragraph, remember for the current format to work Chinese and Russian assistance will be needed. So far the US hasn't conceeded anything. Again, suspension of military drills are not a concession but are common sense. Furthermore they can be resumed if needed.

NK has made a major concession. In holding the summit and the public displays legitimacy has been brought to America's position. It's going to make that much harder to change course. As stated, if the current track fails, there are other options we can pursue.

Anonymous said...

Ask a South Korean or Japanese if they think there is no more nuclear threat.
That's definitely disrespecting them.

B.Poster said...

As I stated, I probably would have used more nuanced language such as to say "we are moving in the right direction," or "positive progress has been made and is continuing to be made." Again, as stated perhaps relations between the NK leadership has grown to the point that such a statement might be warranted. With that said Trump will not always be in power.

Is this disrespecting South Korea or Japan? I would say no. After all it isn't like the US is anywhere near the point of abandoning them. In fact, US support for them seems stronger than ever whether it is advised or not. Also, we have to understand that diplomacy is in order as well. Remember Kim was treated like a rock star at the summit. That kind of turns my stomach actually.

If this is disrespectful to them, I would say it is only minor to how they have used and abused the United States and its military over many decades as the arm of their foreign policies as pawns on their chess boards. If they are so concerned about NK, perhaps they can develop their own nuclear deterrents. That is but part of one strategy that could be pursued if the current approach does not work.

As I state elsewhere, I estimate the current approach yields about an 85% chance of success. Going back to the pre Trump strategy has zero percent chance of success combined with a 95++% chance of war. War with North Korea means millions if not 10s of millions of American lives are in grave peril.

America MUST have peace. I think team Trump understands this. Once you do understand, I think Trump's policies, while they may be flawed in certain areas, will begin to make more sense as to why they are being pursued and the methods behind them.

Anonymous said...

2019 February danger

fred lapides said...

Dmitri
Put in lots of work on this one
Hope they give you another bottle of vodks

B.Poster said...

Fred;

I've explained this to Aizino. I shall explain to you as well. My real name is Robert Foshee. My website is www.fosheecpa.com. I am originally from Louisana. I was born there. I currently reside in Conroe, TX. I have never lived outside of the United States.

With you there is a discernable pattern. When your positions lack merit and cannot be supported based upon the facts and it is pointed out to you, you then turn to insults. Fully realizing your position simply isn't supportable on its merits you then try and impugn my character hoping to somehow discredit me that way.

If you have something to contribute here, please do so. If there's a flaw in what I posted, kindly point it out. Honest discussion is appreciated.

Otherwise don't waste my time. Questioning my integrity is not only uncalled for it is NOT appreciated.

B.Poster said...

With the "Dmitri" line you always use initially I didn't read the rest concluding it wasn't worth it. You are to predictable. When your position lacks merit and it is pointed out to you, then you resort to attack and try to discredit.

I was correct it wasn't worth reading, however, for the information of others who post here and read these comments no one pays me or gives me anything for this. I do not even know anyone from Russia. This is but one of many things I do. I do this to try and learn. During the back and forth much can be learned.

Constructive critique is appreciated. Meritless character assainations are not.

Anonymous said...

Yet your stubborn as a mule without change, you annoy the crap out of everyone but do not change. Either 1- paid troll or 2- dumb. So cut the crap imposter

B.Poster said...

Thank you. Perfect description of Fred. While I think you directed this at me, you described Fred perfectly.

I don't think he is stupid. Stubborn as a mule would be accurate though. :-) I "annoy the crap" out of you because I systematically challenge and disprove your sacred ideologies.

As I see it, you have 3 options. 1.) Read the editor's links, read his analysis, read the comments, and analyze them. Try and learn. Refrain from commenting for awhile until you learn more. 2.) Withdraw from this site all together. In other words remain unchallenged in your ideological echo chamber. 3.) Read the links supplied by the editor, dead his analysis, but refrain from commenting. Your skin appears to be very thin. Perhaps this is your best option.

Personally I'd suggest option 1 but don't think you will take it. This would require humility which judging from the tone of your post you lack. Frankly I don't think you are,reachable.

"Imposter", to cute!! I utterly demolished the talking points of the other "anonymous" on this thread. All you and Fred have left is insults and character assainations.

You can see from my comment to Fred my real name and my website. As stated, questioning my integrity is NOT appreciated. If you have something constructive to add, please do so. Otherwise don't waste time.