* Democrat Joe Biden came into the first debate ahead of President Trump in the national polls.
* The first scientific polls to ask who won the debate Tuesday night show Biden coming out on top.
* A CNBC/Change Research poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday found 53% of likely voters nationwide said Biden did a better job in the debate, compared with 29% for Trump.
Democrat Joe Biden came into the first debate ahead of President Donald Trump in the national polls. If voter reactions to the first debate are any indication, Biden is likely to keep a hold on the lead after the face-off, too.
Here’s what some of the national polling trackers said Thursday morning:
* The NBC News national polling average had Biden up 7.9 points over Trump. That figure is based on an unweighted average of the 10 most recent reliable public opinion polls.
* The RealClearPolitics general election polling average showed Biden with a 6.6-point lead over Trump.
* FiveThirtyEight’s national polling tracker gave Biden a 7.6-point advantage.
Three polls asking who won Tuesday night’s debate show Biden coming out on top – though respondents, along with most commentators and even the moderator himself, gave dismal reviews to the contest itself, which appears to have changed few minds.
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WNU Editor: The pollsters who said that President Trump was going to lose in a landslide in 2016 are the same pollsters who are predicting the same thing this year, only that he will lose in an even bigger landslide than what they were predicting in 2016. And when I look at the polls that were accurate in 2016, like Rasmussen, they are giving a different picture. They are saying that President Trump's approval numbers are the same as President Obama's were in 2016 if not better ... Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen). People are not going to vote out a President that they approve. But most polls are predicting a landslide defeat for President Trump. So who is right?
I know that almost half the country hates President Trump. Their focus is always on President Trump, and who the Democrat candidate is and his policies are for many of these Democrat voters and never-Trumpers not important. What is important for them is to see President Trump gone. That is why I expect most of these voters will to go to the polls on election day. Their hatred towards President Trump is personal for them, and as I have learned recently from reading their Tweets and social media accounts, their contempt for the President is off the scale. On the flip side less than half of the country strongly support President Trump. Maybe their numbers are less than those who hate the President, but their support of the President is very real, and nothing will change their mind. Bottom line. They are going to vote in numbers we have never seen before for a Republican candidate. As for the remaining electorate .... many who view themselves as independent. I see these people staying home. None of the candidates appeal to them, and they have zero enthusiasm to go and vote.
Another group that I always look at during a US election cycle is the voting behavior among non-white voters. President Trump polled poorly among Blacks and Hispanics in 2016. But in this election cycle my American Black and Hispanic readers are telling me that President Trump is going to do well. His outreach to the Black and Hispanic community has resonated and they predict that President will get about 20% of the Black vote, and about 45% of the Hispanic vote. I am skeptical of these opinions. Blacks always vote enmasse for Democrats. And Hispanics are leery of President Trump's border pronouncements. But I was surprised by this poll .... Spanish Speaking Viewers Of Telemundo By A Margin Of 2 To 1 Say President Trump Won Tonight's Presidential Debate. And then I was surprised by this .... BET founder suggests he's voting against Biden: 'I will take the devil I know over the devil I don't know' (FOX News). We shall know for sure in 5 weeks, but making promises like this one do have an impact .... President Trump Unveils $500 Billion Economic Plan For Black Americans And Will Designate The KKK And Antifa As "Terrorist Organizations". Also Promised To Make Juneteenth A Federal Holiday (September 25, 2020).
The last factor that I look at is enthusiasm. On this metric President Trump beats everyone hands down. Wherever he goes tens of thousands attend his allies, and a good number of them are not even Republican. The energy and excitement is there. I have never seen anything like this. This is in complete contrast to what is happening on the other side. The rallies for former Vice-President Biden are non-existent. There is no base of support. The passion is not there. That tells me that his supporters are not enthusiastic of the former Vice-President and his policies. They will vote for him, but the reason why is because of President Trump, not because of the former Vice-President. So what I think will finally decide this election will come down to how many of Biden's voters will stay home, and how many will go out and vote for him. That is an answer that I do not know. But if 5% of those who say to the pollsters that they will vote for Biden but actually stay home .... President Trump will be re-elected. I think the Democrats know this. That is why the media went crazy over labelling President Trump a white supremist and worse today. They need to motivate that part of their base that may not like the President, but are not visceral about it. But to keep that level of hate at such an intensity for any period of time is hard. I do not know if the Democrats can pull it off. All that I can say is that for a political party that is suppose to be way ahead of the polls, they are certainly not acting the part.
Update: I forgot to mention this .... Biden Breaks Fundraising Record Again, Buoyed By Debate (Bloomberg). Hillary Clinton outspent Trump two to one in 2016. It looks like Biden is going to out-spend Trump four to one in this cycle. But I do not think the regular rules of politics and running a campaign work here. Everyone I know in the US has already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for President. They are not going to change their minds because of 24/7 ads. It may actually turn them off. But Republicans do have to worry. This spending may have a very real impact on close Congressional, Senate, and Governor races.
14 comments:
Comrade Xi couldn't care less. The heroic members of CPC sit back and laugh at how easy this is. Why wait til' 2050 for the Chinese Dream. By then America will be a third world dumping ground for China's surplus manufactures.
"who the Democrat candidate is and his policies are for many of these Democrat voters and never-Trumpers not important. What is important for them is to see President Trump gone."
That is cutting off your nose to spite your face. It is a seemingly ludicrous saying, but now I see a concrete example. The light bulb moment does not make up for the feeling of dread.
I for one will never forgive any Never Trumper, if Trump loses.
People who complain about Trump having sharp edges (1) do not complain about the sharp edges of Democrats and (2) if Trump wasn't a bull in a China shop he would not have won in 2016 and gotten stuff done. Those people with decorum, what did they give us except excuse, decorum and their bill? Plus all that insider networking that made them rich.
An example of (1) Look at the Biden Paul Ryan debate. Biden interrupted Ryan 82 times. No one complained. So a pox an you hypocrites. May God strike you houses down.
(2) Jeb Bush has decorum. Do you really think Jeb Bush was going to build the wall? Do you think Jeb would have got the Abraham accords?
You think the Accords are nothing. A big complaint of mine and a lot of people is that Muslim countries will sat one thing in private as allies, but say the opposite to their citizens in public. Well maybe not any more.
(2) Do you think any Democrat or Republican would have engaged in a trade war to redress the trade deficit? I don't.
On the debates and Trumps Tax returns. We are still looking into the tax returns and we are madder than Hell ... at the NYT and Democrat Partisans.
New York Times caught naked in bed with Trump's tax strategy, and the New York Sun exposes them
If what Trump is doing is so bad, why is the owners of the NYT, the Ochs-Sulzberger family. doing the same thing?
If Biden is elected, Democrats will close this or that loophole, but it will be temporary or they will open up another loophole.
Why do the readers of Ochs-Sulzberger newspapers not complain about NYT tax avoidance? Are they that low IQ or that big of hypocrites? I think it is 50/50. The dumb ones like to be seen holding the NYT in front of them to look smart.
Also, why did Chris bin Mike al CBS ask Trump to condemn racism in 20020, when he asked Trump to do in 2016 and he did?
We will not forget and we will not forgive.
But Republicans do have to worry. This spending may have a very real impact on close Congressional, Senate, and Governor races.
Senator McSally, former military pilot, is being outspent by Mark Kelly, former military pilot, and Traitor and sellout to China.
For Mark Kelly, Attending Forum Hosted by CCP Was the Beginning of Lucrative Relationship with China
Mark Kelly went on a junket in 2003.
Year later he was divorced and had a new girlfriend, who he met on the junket.
That girlfriend, who switched from Republican to Democrat.
Money & the power!
Why should Hispanics by leery of border pronouncements? They can marry someone south of the border any time they please so long that person does not have a record.
Trump can't change that and he does not want to change that. At some point the Democrats might change that by force. They have peculiar notions like forcing people to marry people of another race. Democrats are like that.
"President Trump Unveils $500 Billion Economic Plan For Black Americans"
It is a new fiscal year. Trump needs to send it to Congress now. Democrats will say it is theatre. Let them. It is a new fiscal year and that is when you put together the next budget.
You might say that targeting the zones is discriminatory. Blacks are twice as likely to be below the poverty line. Democrats have not helped them and have this stat is not helping the nation at all. So let Trump have a crack at it and see if he can fix things.
Trump will be much better the LBJ and other Democrats.
Let Democrats vote against it.
Where are the democrats getting their money? I can't imagine it's grassroots. Probably heavy union, corporate, and wealthy donating. Can someone say buying an election?
SOME OF THE MONEY IS CHINESE. The Democrats think they can ride that dragon and tame it.
“On behalf of Kyle Rittenhouse, I shall sue [Joe Biden] & Biden/Harris Campaign for libel,” Wood tweeted on Wednesday. “Put in your hearing aid, Joe. You will hear footsteps.”
Joe Biden's 1st act as president will be to pardon himself.
Trump's fat old ass is about to get the virus. I can't wait to see him drinking Windex or bleach to kill it.
Come on virus, kick his ass. Karma is a bitch.
Trump is more genuis and with all who are worried about his candidacy he is not worried at all. It will be not that easy to dig even with the help of chinese money What runs with Trump is american brain. which demecrats and its supporters just have half of it functioning, due to the influence they got from pee brain chinks. if i were democrats let their brain heal first to normal as real americans and that way we will not see a divided america anymore.
This debate was a unique opportunity for Trump to be heard by many Dems who would not listen nirmally to him. They also got to see they want to be Trump who is just Biden.
No GOPers abandoned Trump after the debate.
Trump did create cracks in Biden's wobbly far left, moderate and Reagan Dems (yes there are some) who found out Joe is not so committed on some fundamental issues important to each group. This will chip away at their commitment to vote. I also think somd minorities who watched as traditional dems may leave. It may add up to a weak turn out.
Some of that from Dan Bongino's podcast analysis of the debate whivh is quite good.
Joe cant accept who’s in front of him. He was out smarted at the back! Trump knows it as I said Trump is genius. And may I add up with the policies going around america no body can afford to have Biden as a president of US come to think of it. Everybody, “EVERYBODY” needs a US president that has qualities that is not of Biden. Biden has been around decades ago not expecting Trump will be in the picture. After Reagan democrats are lined up. And its ruining America part by parts. Wake up!
I for one hope that Biden wins. I just want to learn more gender pronouns and critical theory at work...I feel that's mighty productive in our conflict with China. Biden clearly knows what he's doing and has no conflicts of interests in all of this
I dont think so if America needs to get rid of china dont vote for Biden
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