A map shared with Military Times and replicated above shows how Ukrainian intelligence is bracing for a bloody and ferocious invasion that could see swathes of Ukraine captured in an assault which would dwarf the annexation of the Crimea in 2014
* Vladimir Putin has sent more than 92,000 troops to the border with Ukraine
* Ukrainian intelligence warns of three-pronged attack from north, east and south
* Assault threatens amphibious landings, airstrikes and artillery bombardments
* Kiev warns of bloody assault that would dwarf the 2014 annexation of Crimea
Russia is planning to invade Ukraine by the end of January after sending more than 92,000 troops to the border, according to a top general in Kiev.
Vladimir Putin's forces, including tanks, missile batteries and warships, have fanned out across the frontier: from Belarus to the north; the separatist-backed territory in the east; and on the banks of the Black Sea in the Crimean Peninsula.
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Military And Intelligence News Briefs -- November 22, 2021
Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January: Ukraine defense intelligence agency chief -- Defense News
US intelligence shows preparations for rapid Russian push into Ukraine: report -- The Hill
Reports on concentration of Russian troops at border with Ukraine are false — intelligence -- TASS (Russia)
Ukrainian defense minister says he's asked Pentagon for military assistance -- The Hill
If the Russian military crashes through a forest, will NATO hear a sound? -- John R. Deni, Defense News
US defense chief vows to counter Iran in visit to Bahrain -- AP
US, Japanese navies conduct anti-submarine warfare exercise in South China Sea -- Navy Times
Marines on track to have military's lowest vaccine compliance -- The Hill
The Pentagon must deal with the Oklahoma National Guard vaccine revolt -- Task & Purpose
No Pentagon Wrong-Doing in Jan. 6 Reaction, Inspector General Finds -- Defense One
Senators: US allies concerned Senate won't pass annual defense bill -- The Hill
Will the annual defense authorization bill get passed this year? -- Defense News
FBI Agents Became CIA Operatives in Secret Overseas Prisons -- New York Times
Air Force pilot killed, others hurt in accident on runway at Texas base -- The Hill
Pentagon sends nearly 400,000 pounds of Thanksgiving dinner to U.S. troops around the world -- CNBC
Don’t Assume the US Will Fight China and Russia One at a Time -- Defense One
Russian radars track over 50 foreign spy planes and drones near state borders over week -- TASS
North Korean Hackers Caught Snooping on China's Cyber Squad -- Daily Beast
PLA Eastern Theater Command commissions more J-10C fighters -- Global Times
Chinese hypersonic missile test revealed unprecedented military capability: report -- The Hill
China's new wind tunnel ready to shape development of hypersonic weapons, equipment -- Global Times
China’s march toward a ‘world-class’ military, and how it threatens Taiwan -- Defense News
EU nations add air, space and drone tech to their defense cooperation roster -- Defense News
Saab Eyes 'Sweden's Largest Export Order Ever' Amid Fierce Competition, Analysts' Scepticism -- Sputnik
Explainer: Will Germany's Next Government Ditch U.S. Nuclear Bombs? -- Reuters
France accused of aiding Egyptian military in killing suspected smugglers -- Middle East Eye
Iranian Navy to Receive Newly Developed Warships -- Sputnik
Saudi Arabia has no interest in the S-400, says Russian industry official -- Defense News
India's Induction of S-400 Systems Tilts 'Balance of Power' Against Pakistan, Says Army Veteran -- Sputnik
4 comments:
according to the Daily Mail, Russians are going to launch a pincer attack on Kiev with ~3 000 men :D
A pincer movement with ~3,000 men could work depending, where the Ukraine army was engaged, otherwise positioned, or tied down. It would also depend on how panicked the Ukrainians were and if a effective militia could self mobilize.
If the Russian get Kiev or do not get it, If the Russians take the whole Donbas and Kharkiv, Ukraine become a moribund rump state.
Threatening Kiev with 3,000 men ties down 3,000 to 9,000 Ukrainians in the north away from from the Donbas, Maybe the journalism majors at the DM do not understand the purpose of an army in being (in this case battalions in being). They also suck at spelling, writing composition, and logic.
"In naval warfare, a "fleet in being" is a naval force that extends a controlling influence without ever leaving port. Were the fleet to leave port and face the enemy, it might lose in battle and no longer influence the enemy's actions, but while it remains safely in port, the enemy is forced to continually deploy forces to guard against it. A "fleet in being" can be part of a sea denial doctrine, but not one of sea control." -Wiki
3,000 Russians can be followed by 15,000 Belarussians. Putin is letting Lukashenklo to stand somewhat on the sidelines. If Putin is succeeding, Lukashenko jumps in like a jackal. If the Russians are losing, he kicks the Russians out, declares neutrality and said he was threatened and had to let the Russians use his country as a launch pad.
Not the Caecus I remember.
This is a really interesting perspective that I never thought of.
"If the Russian get Kiev or do not get it, If the Russians take the whole Donbas and Kharkiv, Ukraine become a moribund rump state."
Sorry, but the above was a mangled sentence.
What I meant to convey is that it does not matter if the Russians get the the capital city in the 1st, second or third rounds. The main objective is Kharkiv. Getting the western half of Donbas is almost as important.
"Industry plays a significant role in Kharkiv's economy, specialized primarily in machinery and electronics. There are hundreds of industrial facilities throughout the city, including the Morozov Design Bureau and the Malyshev Tank Factory (leaders in world tank production from the 1930s to the 1980s); Khartron (aerospace, nuclear power plants and automation electronics); Turboatom (turbines for hydro-, thermal- and nuclear-power plants); and Antonov (the multipurpose aircraft manufacturing plant)." - Wiki
Without and industrial base Kiev withers. Political types are so above industry unless they are sitting on a corporate board sucking up more money for a days work than the average person makes in a year. Kharkiv is the prize. Donbas is gutted. Without an empire Rome shrank precipitously. Without Kharkiv and the loss of other territory, Kiev will shrink.
The 4 battalions north of Kiev are a holding force threatening the flank and of course the political capital. They are meant to tie down Ukrainian reinforcements. They will naturally strike, if given an opportunity. The four battalions will not enter Kiev. They will surround it like at Grozny. Belarus will send troops, if things look good.
I expect the Ukrainians to give a good accounting of themselves in Donbas right until they panic, if or when Kharkiv falls and they are threatened with encirclement.
If the Russian land between Odessa and the isthmus, I expect them to get mauled.
If the Russian take Kharkiv or it is a cauldron and NATO starts pouring/dribbling in penny packets, I expect China to move.
We'll be at full cold war, but we will let Xi and Putin to have their gains. We'll draw red lines and maybe get serious. Joe will be invited to play bingo. Kamala will be given a daily dance card and if it doesn't work she will be asked to play bingo too. Hunter will be swept under the rug or nailed to wall, if the beltway need a scalp.
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