Alexander Clackson, Modern Diplomacy: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Russia has recently increased its military presence on the border with Ukraine, sparking alarmist suggestions by Western officials and think tanks that Russia is about to invade its neighbour.
Last week US officials suggested a high probability of Russian military intervention and briefed their European colleagues about a potential military assault.
While such claims make for sensationalist headlines, a deeper examination of the situation leads to the conclusion that Russia will not invade Ukraine.
From military, economic and diplomatic standpoints, Russia has nothing to gain and much to lose from attacking its neighbour.
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WNU Editor: The above author repeats the same thing that I have been saying for the past years, but does a better job at explaining why.
Bottom line.
There is no benefit for Russia to use its military to invade Ukraine. There is no public support for it in Russia, and the economic and political cost for such a military adventure would be enormous. Ukraine is a mess, and this is something that eventually they must sort out themselves.
3 comments:
"From military, economic and diplomatic standpoints, Russia has nothing to gain and much to lose from attacking its neighbor".
Could be right, but there is one point missing: the political one. Putin has a lot of problems at home and a war "well advertised" could bring more people behind him than the one's who are against.
Uhh no jac.
You could say the same for Biden. Provoking Russia to attack and then intervening to save the day once again could provide the much needed boost to his disastrous approval rating. Of course neither will happen, it's a fantasy that lives on in Western liberal press
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