New York Times
The Guardian: What would be Russia’s military options in Ukraine?
Analysis: Military advantage is overwhelming but full invasion and occupation are different matter
A full invasion of Ukraine, with the aim of pacifying the capital, Kyiv, would result in Vladimir Putin starting a war on a scale not seen since Iraq in 2003 – prompting western experts to question whether a lasting Russian victory could be achieved.
Estimates suggest about 100,000 Russian troops are massing near Ukraine’s borders. Yet, experts following the crisis closely say that for an invasion of the whole country that number would need to nearly double again, and would almost certainly involve forces passing through Belarus.
Dr Fred Kagan, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said: “This will likely require an invasion on a scale not dissimilar to 2003, somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 troops.”
He predicted that a force that size could be in position by the end of January. About 175,000 US and other allied troops were involved in the invasion of Iraq.
Read more ....
Update: Can the West Stop Russia From Invading Ukraine? Here’s What You Need to Know. (New York Times)
WNU Editor: Any Russian invasion on Ukraine will be focused on regions that have sizeable Ukrainian-Russian populations. This is also where Russian forces are primarily deployed should they decide to strike (see above map). In the north they are near the city of Kharkiv (I have family living in this city). The east (where the war has been ongoing now for 8 years). And in the south where any invasion will occur along the coastline from Odessa to Crimea. They are not going to occupy Kiev nor the western part of the country.
In such an invasion I not believe the Ukraine military will be effective. I do not see Russian-Ukrainian soldiers being enthusiastic to fight their Russian cousins, and the rest of the Ukrainian army will be fighting in regions where the population is primarily Ukrainian-Russian.
Occupation and rebuilding the country that is under Russian control will be the Kremlin's biggest headache. after an invasion a large military presence will also need to be stationed to enforce the "new border". There will also be the political/economic costs with Europe .... which will probably last for a decade or more. It is for all of these reasons why I do not see a Russian invasion happening anytime soon.
I also do not expect Europe or the US to intervene in such a war. To do so will quickly escalate into a nuclear conflict.
4 comments:
No war will happen. What will happen is eventually the western Ukrainians will tire of being held in diplomatic limbo by radical paramilitaries who do the country no favors by way of the court of public opinion, and they'll elect a leader who is willing to go tit-for-tat with Kiev's remaining armed forces against the death threats of the various "western-aligned" militias whenever they don't get their way.
It is always someone else. It is never the Kremlin. They never poisoned no one.
Din'donuffin!
Nuh uh!
Come Vlad, come and show little NATO what you can do and what they can't do.
Vlad is Ron Jeremy flexible. Joe can't compete.
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