Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. © Mikhail Metzel/POOL/TASS
Bloomberg: Putin Could Burst Xi’s Olympic Dream With a War in Ukraine
(Bloomberg) -- As the U.S. and Europe mount increasingly frantic efforts to deter Russia from any invasion of Ukraine, it’s Chinese President Xi Jinping who may have the biggest influence on Vladimir Putin’s timetable.
The Russian president has said he will join Xi at the opening ceremony Feb. 4 of the Beijing Winter Olympics, where the Chinese leader has lavished billions of dollars to showcase his nation’s superpower status to the world.
The last thing Xi would need is for Putin to overshadow China’s big moment by triggering a global security crisis with the U.S. and Europe, analysts say.
That’s especially the case given Xi is looking to bolster his prestige at home as he seeks endorsement for an unprecedented third term later this year.
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WNU Editor: Both China and Russia are denying reports that Xi asked Putin to ‘not invade Ukraine’ during the Olympics in China Next week .... Xi did not ask Putin ‘not to invade Ukraine’ during Olympics – Chinese officials (RT). More here .... Chinese Embassy in Russia debunks US media claim Xi requested ‘Putin not invade Ukraine’ (TASS), and here .... China rejects US media report about Xi's alleged 'request' to Putin over Ukraine (Mint).
As for Russia invading Ukraine during the Olympics? IMHO it is not going to happen.
Update: Russian President Putin will be meeting Chinese President Xi at a summit in Beijing at the start of the Olympics .... Putin to inform Xi about security guarantee talks when in Beijing — Kremlin spokesman (TASS). More here .... Putin to hold summit with Xi at start of Olympics in Beijing (FOX News).
3 comments:
It might be that in his mind Xi has already sacrificed whatever "glory" China might receive for hosting the games. Hypothetically, what would be the point of hosting them if they've already planned to invade Taiwan during or shortly after the games? At that point they'd immediately lose any goodwill they managed to create among other nations anyway. So, maybe the games could simply serve as a (very) short-lived smoke screen in exchange for a small element of surprise if they do invade during the games or shortly thereafter. If they actually invaded Taiwan during the games (which I doubt they'd do) they'd also have a large collection of international hostages already within their borders that they could use afterwards to negotiate with. So, if such a plan were in the works, why not also agree to allow Russia to invade Ukraine? What would they have to lose by doing so? Again, I doubt very much such a scenario would happen, just trying to figure out the different upsides/downsides of doing it.
IMO, IF Russia plans to invade, it would be to their advantage to do so while the weather is still cold and miserable. This gives them maximum leverage against Germany etc., since I assume Germany would more open to pre-negotiations at a time of year when their citizens would suffer most from a pipeline "crisis" than if Russia waited for warmer/drier weather to invade.
I was a believer in the Cold Weather Gambit. It did not happen. Germany seems sufficiently cowed and Russian-whipped that the time of year doesn't matter. With gas price high businesses in Britain and Germany shut down for a few days or a week. A complete shutdown of the gas pipeline would be body blow against German industry. So I do not think the time of year matters.
you can shut down Germany winter or summer. If you do it in winter and people freeze to death, you lose the propaganda war and that counts. So maybe March or April is as likely or more likely than January.
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