Washington Post: The Ukraine conflict has Persian Gulf monarchies hedging their bets
When the United Arab Emirates abstained from the Feb. 25 U.N. Security Council vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was much consternation, as many observers expected the United States’ partners in the Middle East to unequivocally side with Washington and Europe.
Why did one of the United States’ closest partners in the Middle East decline to vote against Russia? The UAE was probably hedging its bets, a path that seems popular elsewhere in the region, too.
Hedging to the extreme
Russia is not a strategic partner for the Persian Gulf monarchies. Given its production capabilities, Russia has become an important interlocutor for Saudi Arabia in the OPEC-plus oil bloc that controls close to 40 percent of global production, but Moscow also competes with gulf countries as an energy producer.
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WNU Editor: There are two reasons why countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and even Israel are being careful on how they approach the Russia - Ukraine war, and more specifically, to not alienate Russia.
One .... they do not trust the Biden administration. Israel because of the U.S. push for an Iran nuclear deal, and Saudi Arabia/UAE because of the Yemen war and the Iran nuclear deal. Relations between the Gulf monarchies and the U.S. are at the lowest that I have ever seen, and Israel is definitely not happy with the concessions that the White House is making with Iran.
Two .... I believe these countries have made the calculation that Russia will win the war and/or achieve most if not all of their objectives in this conflict. If that does happen, you do not want to be seen as a foe of the Kremlin, and what better way to have leverage with Moscow than telling them that they did not actively oppose their invasion when forced to do so by the U.S. and others.
5 comments:
Agree
Good analysis. Concur.
They may also be waiting to see what the final economic outcome of this "New Reality"
We would not want to be on the loosing side once the economic bottom falls out and the smoke clears.
Better to hedge our bets.
Russia going into an economic collapse that has not been as bad as it will get since the Russian Rev.
Debts coming due and they say they will pay with rubles. That will not be acceptable. Middle class that Putin created is vanishing.
"Two...I believe these countries have made the calculation that Russia will win the war and/or achieve most if not all of their objectives in this conflict. If that does happen, you do not want to be seen as a foe of the Kremlin...." To be seen as "a foe of the Kremlin" would be an unmitigated disaster for those seen as foes of the Kremlin and the Russian leadership especially if they don't have a way to reverse course. If this happens, the Europeans will quickly switch sides and the "neutrals" will as well. I suspect the Russian leadership will demand a "certain pound of flesh" but I suspect they would go along with it and accept their contrition. As for America, we will not be afforded such grace as, rightly or wrongly, we are blamed as the driving force behind the sanctions. We would essentially be left to face the brunt of the Russian reprisal all alone. It would mean the end of America as a major power if not its very existence.
If I were advising our leadership class at the start, I would have advised them to take a wait and see approach much like the "neutrals" and the Middle Eastern nations are doing. Unfortunately we didn't do that. We jumped head long, to use a poker term "all in" based upon questionable assumptions at best. I hope and pray my analysis is wrong and Russia does prevail.
Based upon observations and my "gut" I believe the war is going much better for Russia and much worse for Ukraine than is generally known. Also, Zelenski has an acting background meaning he is trained in deception and pretending things are different than reality and convincing others of the false narrative. Again, I hope and pray I am wrong.
I meant "I hope and pray my analysis is wrong and Russia does not prevail." I apologize for the typo.
Wrath of the Kremlin? Assume does make an ass out of you and me. If these boys don’t get sober soon putsy will have nothing left but nukes and skeletons. Rebuilding armor doesn’t happen overnight. MAD may well come into play leaving xi and his followers to peck away at the grass shoots grinning with victory. Not like they aren’t prepared being locked in an apartment is childs play. Let’s play catch the cockroach son
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