Peter Dickinson, Atlantic Council: Not just Putin: Most Russians support the war in Ukraine
Amid the shock and horror of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, many have sought to blame everything solely on Vladimir Putin. As international audiences try to make sense of the unthinkable scenes currently unfolding in the heart of Europe, it is convenient to believe that Putin has simply lost his mind.
There is something reassuring about the idea that the carnage in Ukraine is all down to the criminal insanity of one man. However, talk of “Mad Vlad” is a comforting myth that disguises a far darker reality.
While the Russian ruler’s well-documented Ukraine obsession has been instrumental in sparking the largest European conflict since World War II, his decision to invade Ukraine was entirely consistent with longstanding public statements and foreign policy goals that are enthusiastically embraced by a clear majority of Russians. This is their war just as much as it is Putin’s.
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WNU Editor: There was surprise and shock in the first days of the invasion. At least that was the impression that I got from my family and friends in Russia.
No more now. Many are now quiet. Translation. They are not opposed to the invasion. And those who are voicing their opinions say they support it since it is now underway.
Is this support deep? Will Russians continue to support the government even if everyday life becomes more difficult? And yes, life is going to get more difficult .... Russia sanctions: How the measures have changed daily life (BBC).
My answer is a sad (and heavy sigh) yes.
Most Russians now see this conflict as an existential national security issue, and will adjust accordingly. They have also accepted that this going to be a long conflict, and that it is going to be very costly both in lives and resources.
To say that I am disappointed and worried is an understatement. Even if the war ends tomorrow it is going to take Russia a decade (or more) to recover from the economic aftershocks of this invasion, and on the international stage even longer since it is now a pariah nation equal to North Korea.
But as much as I worry about Russia, the real loser will be Ukraine. It is going to take generations to recover from this conflict, and I can easily see it being fractured into pieces .... something that even Zelensky warned against in his speech last night, and what observers are seeing on the ground right now in the captured/occupied areas .... Russia Deploying Members Of Notorious Ukrainian Police Unit In Occupied Regions, Official Says (RFE).
7 comments:
For the average person here Ukraine is too far off to be willing to personally suffer and sacrifice for once the jingoism and emotion wears out. A significant rise in fuel and commodity prices won't be seen as something the working class can endure indefinitely.
I'm fairly confident that we would be willing to put up with economic devastation if Russia or China was trying to place missiles in Mexico, too close for MAD doctrine to apply. As pussified and comfortable as we've become we wouldn't just hand the keys to our destruction to our enemy without a fight.
Luckily we have the luxury of enemies who aren't wreckless enough to attempt such a scenario.
" too close for MAD doctrine to apply. "
You pulling stuff out your ass? It is why there is a triad. How would placing missiles in Mexico affect subs at sea?
Also the Russians are not in Mexico except rear echelon support. They are in the US already.
Those roving radiation detectors in American cities and ports are not going to detect a suit case nuke if they store it in the boonies miles from an America metro.
DHS secretary MayJerkUs may not realize if but if suitcase nuke were used on American cities, but Black would be hardest hit.
But all MayJerkUs, Biden Klain, Obama and others can think of is purported new voters, when there are illegals crossing.
You and I don't get to define where Russia draws their red line. Ours was Cuba in 63. For them it's the Dnieper.
Pretty much
You and I don't get to define where Russia draws their red line. Ours was Cuba in 63. For them it's the Dnieper.
Ethnic Russians make up 17% of the population but with your Dnieper comment you want to give them 40% to 60% of the land area. You are a real fucking tool.
I estimated there were 4 to 8 troll commenters on this site. As of this year I believe it is more in the 8 range. You have to be one of them. Now go fluff putin. He needs a little pick me up.
Overanalyzing a broad statement big fella. The borders will be negotiated along the Donbas with assurances of no NATO membership. Nobody serious believes Putin will demand 40% of Ukrainian territory, I simply said the Dnieper because that's where this showdown is going to take place.
I can't fluff Putin right now, his pipeline was sanctioned :'(
"I simply said the Dnieper, because that's where this showdown is going to take place."
The Russians are already west if (on the far side of) the Dniepr around Kyev and Crimea in a big way.
Russia needs to be boxed in. The 4th side must be left open.
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