Monday, March 14, 2022

Is The Kremlin In Chaos?

President Vladimir Putin, right, speaks to his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, second left, and head of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, left, in the Kremlin last month. Photograph: Alexei Nikolsky/AP 

Mirror: Inside Kremlin chaos amid 'cracks in Putin regime' and faltering Ukraine invasion  

Russia has so far lost a number of Russian generals, with General Andrei Kolesnikov, of the 29th Combined Arms Army, killed in fighting on Friday - a top Putin's ally has admitted the war is progressing slower than expected 

The Kremlin is said to have been thrown into chaos following a number of blows to Vladimir Putin's regime, as the planned invasion of Ukraine slows. 

Putin is reported to be furious at the Russian failures so far but the Kremlin has denied asking China for weapons to help. 

The invading forces have scarcely moved in recent days and the Russian attack is now mostly focused on intense shelling and airstrikes. 

Efforts to assassinate Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky have failed with a 'hit squad' sent into Kyiv reported to have been thwarted by double agents. 

Russia has so far lost a number of Russian generals, with General Andrei Kolesnikov, of the 29th Combined Arms Army, killed in fighting on Friday.  

Read more .... 

Update: Kremlin insiders call war in Ukraine a ‘clusterf–k’ as top officers die: report (NYPost)  

WNU Editor: I have been a Kremlin watcher all my life, and I certainly do not know what is happening within Putin's inner circle. So I look for the little signs, and from that try to ascertain what is really happening on the inside. 

And what do I see. 

I certainly do not see the chaos and dissension that the above post from the Mirror believes there is. And I certainly doubt that officials within the Kremlin are going to rush to the Mirror and do a tell-all on what is happening.

And while many Western pundits want to know who will stand up to Putin .... Dysfunction and self-deception stalk Kremlin but who will stand up to Putin? (The Guardian), the fact is that regardless of what everyone in the Kremlin felt and thought in the beginning, I am willing to bet that they are all focused on making sure this conflict ends on favorable terms for Russia. Their future depends on it.

That is why I am focused on tracking the Russian military advance by the maps that are published by news agencies like the BBC, AFP, and Financial Times. The Russian military advances 40 - 60km in a day or two, and then stays put waiting for supply lines to catch up. If that momentum is broken, that will be my red flag that something is wrong and cracks in the Kremlin may start to show-up.

One more point that I must comment on the above Mirror post. Russian Generals are usually near the front lines. I lost count during the Afghan war on how many senior Soviet commanders were killed. I expect the same in this war.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

In the modern era do you think there is anything to actually be gained, tactically speaking, from high ranking officers being near the front? Or is it more of a performative/morale thing? One would think with advancements in intel gathering the command structure should be fairly well informed, even hundreds of miles from the front.

Anonymous said...

" lost count during the Afghan war on how many senior Soviet commanders were killed. "

There probably is a fully trained junior general or colonel who is fully trained and waiting in line for the job. The transition is all but seamless. The biggest problem is, when the general goes, the command post goes too.


"In the modern era do you think there is anything to actually be gained, tactically speaking, from high ranking officers being near the front?"

It keeps it real. There is more of a pucker factor. If they do their job right, they can die. But there is more incentive to do the job right if you are there.


Obama is kept up to date on Ukraine. You think he cares esconced as he is in a mansion which does not need heat or cooling situated as it is on the coast of a semi tropical isle? He is quite comfortable and unconcerned with losses as he comfortably reclines in his triclinium sipping his chardonnay?

Anonymous said...

If you don't see the cracks, it's probably because you are not looking hard enough.

War News Updates Editor said...

Anon 2:01
If you see these cracks. Do point it out. I for one would appreciate seeing and reading about it, and I am sure most readers of this blog would join in.

jimbrown said...


https://youtu.be/liKtIsMoPoA

At the 1.40 mark, he uses a battle map which is impressive. Has units.

A Navy pilot's good take on the situation.

Nobody said...

This is why I come here. Your analysis is insightful and to the point. Your not afraid to say what needs to be said...even if what needs to be said is "I do not know."

Your comments are appreciated.

Adam said...

I hear ya editor. Always consider the source.

Jon said...

I see history repeating itself. I see two small men in the corner of a room who have never had life or dreams just dictatorship. I see a man desperately controlling them similar to patients I have known with brain cancer. I see also a west so consumed with it’s own fallacy that is forgetting to maintain a knives edge. Together we all fall once again