Axios: Researchers: War hits stalemate
"The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate after more than three weeks of fighting, with Russia making only marginal gains and increasingly targeting civilians," the N.Y. Times writes (subscription). That was the assessment yesterday from the Institute for the Study of War, a widely respected D.C. research group:
* "Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war," the note says. "That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine." That failed.
* "Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way."
Read more ....
WNU Editor: The Institute for the Study of War has been one of my go-to places since the start of the invasion.
I think it is too early to say if this war is now a stalemate. A lot can happen in the coming weeks. The weather is also making it difficult for Russian armor columns to advance. It is the muddy season right now, something that the ISW report did not consider in their analysis.
While the Kyiv and northern offensive seems to now be in a holding pattern, the Russian offensive in the south and eastern parts of the country have not been stopped.
I do concur with the report that Ukraine's cities will be difficult to take. It is why I have been worried since the start of the invasion that a scorch-earth order may be given, making the destruction of Mariupol as the template for all the other cities. My gut tells me that Putin has already made that decision.
The ISW report is here, and it is a must read .... Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19 (ISW).
21 comments:
@WNU: Do you think Belarus will enter the fight to give Putin a way out @ stalemate (and so that he doesn't have to e.g. use tactical nukes)???
The sad thing is the former Soviet Union originated in Kyiv.. so they would destroy their original home. What stupidity!
Stalemate or not the US will use nukes to break the Stalemate. Will Russia? I don't know but I think Putin has dne advisors who will advise against such an approach.
Knowing this I thought Russia wouldn't actually invade!! Is Russia willing to go nuclear? I don't know. I am pretty near 100% certain our side will. To protect Hunter and other members of the leadership class they'll fight to the death of us all if we let them!!
You can tell that the Russian forces are still advancing from the number of videos coming out from the Russian social accounts where the Ukrainian forces don't have time to collect their dead before falling back. Making progress through a landscape of rural villages and countless farmhouses/utility structures is slow and grinding. Just like it was in Syria. You have to observe the area ahead intensely with drones/satellite, possibly for days. Then wait for indirect fire support to get into position and, in some cases, spend days pounding the area before it's "safe" to advance.
This is the real pace of war. Iraq and Afghanistan were an anomaly. A shock & awe air campaign spending 2 days "bouncing rubble", as Colin Powell put it, followed by a leisurely stroll into the capital to declare victory is just a special little trick that the Pentagon can do in marginal countries.
Those expecting Putin to start wavering on his demands so soon are probably mistaken. The Russian MOD is well aware of how long it takes to capture cities and advance through terrain covered with deadly effective guerrilla fighters. They just spent 4 years doing it in Syria.
" I am pretty near 100% certain our side will. "
Such pro-Russian propaganda
"They just spent 4 years doing it in Syria."
That is am lie. They took Palmyra. That is about it.
Idlib still stands.
From Aleppo to Damascus was taken by the SA, Hezbollah and Iran. The Russians helped out with some air power, but that is it.
Yes Russian command rooms coordinated it all is what I was inferring. It was their indirect fire and air support that captured Aleppo. Lie is an accusatory word to use when both of us probably agree on this point.
Poster asks: can he collect unemployment if Putin dethroned?
Actually I don't think the Russian leadership understands this. They think team Biden is weak.
Nuclear war is something we should want to avoid. Linking ourselves to hopeless causes helps no one.
https://youtu.be/c7nhKqWCF88
I'm American. AS a US income tax accountant, mright now my position looks relatively good at this point, while I want Putin to be replaced by someone more supportive of our interests, realistically I understand this won't happen.
"The Syrian government, aided by Russian army, used war planes to systematically bombard hospitals in the rebel-held areas of the city"
The joys of Russian help in taking Aleppo.
Russia's role in the bombing of Aleppo, which has seen nurseries, hospitals and civilian areas flattened, has been widely condemned by the international community.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2203693/russia-bombing-aleppo-syria-mevlut-mert-altintas-andrei-karlov/
Not sure how this is "pro Russian." I'm stating the facts as my analysis sees it. Astute friends of Ukraine such as Israeli PM Benet and US Rep Marjorie Taylor-Geeen have rendered good analysis.
It's a multi polar world with Russia being one of the most important poles. In the foreseeable future this cannot ne changed. American 'exceptionalism" or "primacy" is an ideological fiction that has no place in reality and needs to be abandoned forthwith as a policy objective.
'exceptionalism" or "primacy" do not mean the same thing. As a non-native speaker I do not expect you to know the difference but please not they are two different words with different roots. That would be your first clue. But I think a person in your shoes needs at least a million.
You are technically correct. To our leadership class they're essentially interchangeable.
Former president Trunp rightly fired people who advocated such nonsense. It's sad beyond measure that Ttump diplomacy was undermined!!
Assertion without proof unless you are Vulcan. You as much of a shit as parrot.
Be careful with ISW. It is a Neocon organization. Never met a war they did not like and ideologically anti Russian in all aspects. What is the group truth... Depends on who you listen to to want to believe. I am an American...but I tell you what, if the Russians or Chinese had done the things we did in the Ukrainian with Mexico, I would have attacked too. Sorry... the Maiden protests , replacement of the President (constitutionally illegal) and the failure to follow the Minsk agreements...well a bully can push you only so many times then you give him a bloody nose. Oh of Course I am a puppet or troll...nope...the narrative stinks...just like Iraq had weapons of mass destruction stinks...Believe me it galls me that Cindy Sheehan was right all along. But you have to give the devil his due.
The Russians will win this. Washington and its degenerate leadership need a major comeuppance. It may help preserve the Republic by discrediting the neocons and the idiots in power right now. But here is what will probably happen....The economy will go bust because of the sanctions the US will boomerang back on us. Then the crass bastards will blame Putin for all the problems when Wall Street crashes and we go into a depression. The elites of this country take no responsibility for anything. The left progressive is especially guilty of this. They are soviet in nature. Blaming everything from racism to climate change for their own created problems. They suck and are Soviet in Nature.
The party is always right! The State is infallible! We are the indispensable nation. Blah blah blah.. What these idiots need is a hard dose of reality. Sadly it will come at the expense of the common man.
Using an interjection in a phone call is not proof of anything.
Anyone, who throws around the term neocon, is an idiot.
Cindy Sheehan was a waste case. She can get a picture outside Bush's home but not Obama's home? Might as well call her a neo-lib. Her policy positions are so pie in the sky that she never can be accused of hypocrisy. Sheehan was against the war in Afghanistan. That tells you everything you need to know.
Rumsfeld was for knocking the Taliban out of power and leaving. He was not for staying in Afghanistan. He lost the policy debate.
The Russians shipped the Russian WMDs to Syria. During the Syrian War the Syrians shipped them back. When they shipped them back they did not have a cover story for their caravan.
Yes, you are a troll.
Wnu scoffing not so long ago the mud will never be a problem they know what they doing. Anyone who has had a callus knows heavy equipment + mud is a real bitch. Old hands are the key. Young people pushed into war they don’t want equals current clusterfuck. Bidens are the real target anyway
Tanks do float in mud. You go nowhere fast, but you do float. Not recommended when petro resupply is at a premium and there are drones and people with javelins hunting you.
The T 34 was an excellent tank for muddier conditions. apparently other design considerations have made tanks heavier and with narrower tracks. It is a deign trade off.
Post a Comment