* Russia has seen at least 7,000 soldiers killed and up to 21,000 wounded, according to new Pentagon estimate
* Fifth of the force Putin amassed before war could now be out of action, as units become 'combat ineffective'
* British intelligence says Russian advance has now stalled 'on all fronts' with 'heavy casualties' being suffered
* Shelling of major cities continued today, with Kyiv struck in the early hours and Kharkiv bombed overnight
Russia has lost up to 28,000 soldiers killed and wounded during three weeks of fighting in Ukraine, the US believes, as Vladimir Putin's invasion stalls 'on all fronts' but shelling of cities including Kyiv continues.
The Pentagon estimates at least 7,000 Russian troops have now died in the fighting while another 14,000 to 21,000 have been wounded - accounting for nearly a fifth of the estimated 150,000 men that Putin amassed on the border before giving the order to attack 21 days ago.
The staggering toll is roughly double NATO losses in Afghanistan over two decades of fighting, and roughly equal to US casualties in the 36-day battle of Iwo Jima - one of the bloodiest clashes in the Pacific during the Second World War.
Losses are now so severe, US intelligence believes some Russian units cannot keep fighting.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: Western intelligence agencies first said Kiev will fall in a few days at the start of the invasion, to a new narrative that has been ongoing for the past 10 days that the Russian military is stalled.
Are they correct? I do not know.
What I do know is that the war is continuing, the Russian military continues to advance in the south and eastern parts of the country even after a Ukrainian counter-attack at the Kherson airport (see war maps here), and the outskirts of Odessa was bombed by the Russian navy this morning.
That does not look like a stalled military to me.
Update: A regular reader of this blog who served for the US military in the second Iraq war just told me that he thinks the Russian military are taking an operational pause outside of Kyiv. He told me the US military did the same thing when they reached Baghdad after three weeks of fighting to rest, resupply, assess, and get ready for the next phase of the offensive.
I hope he is wrong and the Russian military has reached its limits.
If they are getting ready to resume major offensive operations, the destruction that they will unleash on Kyiv will be a disaster of epic proportions.
Is The Russian Military Offensive Stalled In Ukraine
Russia getting bogged down in Ukraine, Western nations say -- Reuters
Uneasy wait in Kyiv continues as Russian advance appears to have stalled -- The Guardian
Russian Troops Bogged Down in Face of Stiff Ukraine Resistance, Says DOD Official -- US Department of Defense
Varney: Now we know why the Russians are bogged down -- FOX News
Hope that many survived Ukraine theater attack as intel suggests Russia's ground war is stalled -- CBS
Russia bogged down, blasting Ukrainian cities as war enters fourth week -- Reuters
11 comments:
An operational pause makes sense. But the Russian have been pushing 10 or 20 miles and waiting for fuel and ammo to catch up since the start. The distance form Kuwait City to Baghdad is about 346 miles. Mazyr, Belarus to Kiev is 245 km or 152 miles. Starting on the border the Russians only have to go 100 miles. The opposition is tougher than what the Americans faced?
With the distances and pregnant tactical pauses, why do they need an operational pause too?
Maybe the US has to restart the Lend Lease program and send trucks and jeeps over to Russia, so the can have those deep thrusts they had in 1943 thru 1945? Like Operation Bagration.
The regular reader is probably right. But as the Russians rearm and resupply the Ukrainians will too. Considering the Russians have take 30% (28,000) casualties,
if the US intel is right, the Russians could take another 5 to 10 thousand.
Personally, I do not trust American intel. Radio hosts played clips of CIA Chief claiming that the Hunter laptop was Russian disinformation. Now 16 to 18 months later the NYT admits that the laptop is real. I would expect Brennan to lie to adversaries, but not to the American people. But he did. So I know Brennan is competent enough to spy on the American people and spread disinformation. That I know. What I do not know is if American intel is competent vis-à-vis American adversaries.
The Task & Purpose view WNU Editor linked to yesterday also described a likely operational pause to bring up logistical support. But let's be honest, essentially the Russians have been on an "operational pause" around Kyiv for the past two weeks. In that video, it was speculated that it would take the Russians two more weeks to surround the city and another four before Kyiv falls around the end of April. Assuming current Russian casualty rate remains, by the time Kyiv falls it would mean the Russian casualties would be over 100,000 with the dead over 20,000 (perhaps more).
And the fall of Kyiv is unlikely to mean the end of Ukrainian resistance. The time of uncertainty, panic, and fear is over. People have recovered from the shock. Ukraine will keep fighting. This is not Case White or the Battle of France. This is more like the Spanish Civil War or the Sino-Japanese War.
I find it ironic that WNU Editor should bring up initial Western intelligence failures given his own predictions back on February 24. At that time, he made the following predictions:
*Russian intelligence, thanks to Ukraine collaborators, will enable the Russians to wipe out key Ukrainian positions.
*Russia will own the skies and make mince-meat out of Ukrainian ground forces.
*Kharkhiv will fall with very little fighting.
*There will be no widespread or street to street fighting in Kyiv.
*Zelensky will quickly flee to Lviv and then to the West. He has only a few weeks at most.
*By that time Russia will occupy western Ukraine, possibly leading to guerilla warfare.
This was clearly wrong on each point.
He did get the refugee numbers about right (2-3 million).
He also predicted tens of thousands of casualties which is right so far, but that was inclusive of Russian and Ukrainian casualties and with the understanding the war would be over except for ongoing guerilla resistance. Before the war concludes, casualties will probably be in the hundreds of thousands on both sides.
Although he has refrained from making further predictions now, he clearly overestimated Russia and underestimated Ukraine at the beginning.
Putin's paranoid ramblings on internal traitors today, the request for help from China, moving military forces from the east to go west, Putin putting blame on his military and intelligence services for certain failures, mass censorship, and Putin reducing his demands on Ukraine in peace negotiations clearly show the war is not going according to his expectations and that the strain on the Russian military and Putin's internal support is substantial.
Now Ukraine is obviously getting the worse of this, but they are fighting for their nation's survival. What is Putin fighting for now? Official recognition of Crimea and the Donbas Republics and some face saving language on Ukraine's future alliances? The likelihood is that Putin will not be able to tolerate the number of casualties the Ukrainians will.
I am not triumphalist about Ukraine's chances and don't think Russia is "losing". But it is clearing paying a much higher price than it was prepared to pay, and advancing painfully slowly. And I've been waiting for the hammer to fall on Kyiv for the past three weeks, and it still hasn't happened yet. Maybe it will in the next week. If it doesn't, there's a good chance that Russia is spent and a stalemate will ensure for an indeterminate time.
Chris
"it would mean the Russian casualties would be over 100,000 with the dead over 20,000 (perhaps more)."
What does that mean?
It is catastrophe for Putin and Putin's Russia.
It would be totally awesome for the West militarily, unless that nuke thing happens.
Long term it would detrimental to the Western civilization. The void would be filled.
It is a real life game of "Would your Rather".
http://johnhelmer.net/the-zelensky-summit-meeting-in-kiev-on-march-15-with-polish-czech-and-slovenian-prime-ministers-was-a-fake-devised-in-warsaw-the-meeting-was-at-przemysl-poland-zelensky-also/
The meeting with the Polish, Czech, and Slovenian PMs looks to have been pretty definitively faked. Or rather the meeting happened, but it happened in Przymysl Poland. Kiev appears to have been encircled in any effective sense since at least yesterday.
More psy ops by 8:04
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Helmer_(journalist)
"In December 2020 he claimed the German doctors treating Alexei Navalny had found no evidence of a poison attack in the Omsk hospital."
Is that true? Maybe you should look it up and find out.
I don not have t put out effort to find out currently. In the future I will find out. It will just fall into my lap.
I do note however that John Helmer has a bad track record.
"I hope he is wrong and the Russian military has reached its limits." I hope he is wrong as well. I want Ukraine to win. Ukraine is the relative "good guys" in this conflict and they are on our side in this front of Cold War 2.
Unfortunately I don't think he is wrong. I think Kyiv will likeky fall much quicker than even the Task and Purpose analysis projects. Of course I do not know. Without inside information which I do not have it's not possible to know for certain.
I suspect Israeli PM Naftali Benet reached a similar conclusion when he recommended to Zelensky to essentially sue for peace. While I do not know for certain, I believe that report to be accurate. His country is small, is surrounded by numerous historical enemies, and has no reliable allies. As such, he and the Israeli leadership have to deal in reality as opposed to wishful thinking. In contrast, US leadership and media analysis is superficial consisting of little more than the Ukraine/Zelensky cheering section.
When a country such as Ukraine faces threats from a large and powerful adversary such as Russia, it's very important to choose one's friends wisely. I think by linking themselves to the likes of Clinton, Biden, and Romney undercut their position and made this current shooting war much more likely. The Russians simply don't respect them. In contrast, the body language from the Trunp/Putin Summit strongly suggests they respected and even feared former president Trump.
Insiders to the Summit such as ambassador John Huntsman suggested the Summit went extremely well. Unfortunately the media and Trump's political opponents undercut meticulous and careful diplomacy that literally likeky took years to put together. Had this process been able to continue we very likeky would've ended Cold War 2 meaning the current situation likeky never happens.
The Biden situation was very destruct to Ukraine. Their friend former president Trump asked them to investigate. They refused turning their back on him.
Sometimes in life we make bad decisions. IMHO Ukraine has made some colossally bad ones. I really do hope and pray they prevail.
And get picked apart by Ukrainian infantry during these frequent pauses...
Was there during the pause on bagdad. So your friend was telling you the truth. remember also we bombed those folks for about 40 days before we started, so there was not that much resistance left. The border, Karbala, approach to bagdad and the Airport none of that was heavily defended. This is different
Predictions are hard ....especially about the future :). You get some wrong you get some right. Big surprises....
a. Russian airfare has air superiority if not supremacy.. Where is it? If this was a US op...every Ukie vehicle would have been destroyed by now. Their helos have FLIR...is it being used?
b. Ukies still have power, water and commo. In a US op. these would have been targeted the first day.
c. With all the photos, have you seen any Russians with night vision devices? I have not...except some rifle scopes. This is a huge combat multiplier...the other guy is blind if you have these...He dies fast in the dark.
d. A lot of things do not add up in this war. Also of people say it is because the Russians are weak and incompetent...I don't believe that. They definitely underestimated the response. But that is because they moved too slow and let the Ukie Gove to exist and have a voice. The propaganda machine worked against them.
lastly zelinski is a jerk. Giving untrained civilians weapons and told to go out and fight is next to murder. That little creep needs to be tried for war crimes after this is over.
china will send troops soon
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