Axios: U.S. estimates 2,000 to 4,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine war
The U.S. assesses with "low confidence" that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have been killed over the course of Vladimir Putin's 12-day war in Ukraine, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Scott Berrier testified Tuesday.
Why it matters: The estimated number of casualties is "far in excess" of what Russia anticipated or has publicly acknowledged, according to U.S. intelligence officials. Putin has still not achieved his initial goal — seizing Kyiv within two days — and may turn to more brutal tactics in the coming days and weeks.
The big picture: Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testified at Congress' annual worldwide threats hearing that Russia "underestimated the strength of Ukraine's resistance and the degree of internal military challenges," which include "an ill-constructed plan" and issues with morale and logistics.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: It is hard to calculate how many Russian soldiers have been killed so far in the Ukraine invasion. I try to get some measure of it from Russian social media and open sources, and I am the first to admit that it is impossible to make any estimate.
As for U.S. intelligence estimating between 2,000 to 4,000 soldiers killed. These officials are saying the same thing that I am saying .... it is based on data that they have "low confidence" in.
But there is a reference point that can be used to make an estimate, and that is the first and second Chechen wars where estimates are that Russian casualties were between 20,000 to 40,000 killed (Causalities first Chechen war, Second Chechen war).
Both Chechen wars were unbelievably brutal and scorch earth, and took years to resolve. If this is where the Russia - Ukraine war is headed, I can easily Russian casualties at almost 100,000 killed, but the casualty count on the Ukrainian side, especially among the civilian population, will be in the hundreds of thousands killed (if not more) and half of the country displaced both internally and externally.
One other note. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters that approximately 5% of Russia's weapons and vehicles have been destroyed or "rendered inoperable" during the war. After almost two weeks of intense war I find that number to be surprisingly small, and what is more sobering is that this equipment has probably already been replaced. With the number of anti-tank/armor weapons that the Ukrainian military has, I expected a much higher number.
Pentagon Estimates 2,000 To 4,000 Russian Troops Killed In Ukraine War
Pentagon Estimates Thousands of Russian Troops Have Been Killed in Ukraine -- Military.com
Pentagon estimates 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine -- France 24
U.S. Military Intelligence Estimates Russian Troop Deaths Reach 4,000 -- Newsweek
Estimates Vary on Russian Troop Deaths in Ukraine Since Invasion -- US News and World Report
12 comments:
lets not forget that many Russians were tricked into this war -- we have only love for the Russian people, who are smart and have contributed so much to science and engineering (and classical literature)... do never forget this - the West does not want conflict (and we too are often misled)..
And thank you to all Russians who spoke out against this war and put down their weapons. It means a lot
I do not believe it is 5%, it is likely around 10-15% from what I've seen.
It's more like 25% of their equipment has been lost if the reports are accurate. A typical BTG has 10 tanks and 40 armored/specialized vehicles. If you do the math, you'll recognize that it's equivalent to about 31 BTG's of equipment that has been lost to attrition whether due to equipment failure, destruction, abandoning them, etc. Out of 120 BTG's that are involved in the Ukrainian theater, they lost 26% of the equipment they've sent in. Not a good look at all.
25% is a ludicrous number lol. Going by Ukrainian MOD figures they'll be at the gates of Moscow by next week.
Actually 5% in a couple weeks is a pretty high loss rate. If sustained for a couple months the Russian forces would have to change tactics or collapse.
It looks like both sides are getting worried that there are real problems ahead and will soon negotiate a settlement to avoid those problems.
5% is hundreds and hundreds of vehicles which is probably fairly accurate.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/95-putins-forces-intact-plan-surround-kyiv-pentagon/story?id=83317142
"95% of Putin's forces still intact, plan to surround Kyiv: Pentagon update"
It's not a ludicrous number. A Russian "Battalion Tactical Group" composes of 10 tanks typically, 40 armored/specialized vehicles, AND 36 squads (6 men each). Go google "Defeating the Russian Battalion Tactical Group - Fort Benning" which explains the formation of a Russian BTG. An American Armored Brigade Combat Team has 90 tanks and 140 armored vehicles w/ 60 squads (9 men each) by comparison. The Ukraine Weapons Tracker (https://twitter.com/UAWeapons) has been tracking losses across Ukraine in the invasion. Russia has undercounted how many men they've had killed in action. You have to separate loss of equipment from loss of men because they don't always go hand in hand. Equipment can be lost due to a variety of things as I explained, equipment failure, lack of movement due to terrain such as mud, having to retreat then abandoned, destroyed by enemy combat action, captured, disabled intentionally, etc.
The US estimating 2,000 to 4,000 dead is a 1% to 4% casualty rate (depending on how you calculate it) since there are estimated to be about 100,000 troops in theater since a BTG typically has 800 personnel each.
So when you start doing the math, the percentage of equipment loss is not ludicrous. Remember attrition is an entirely different concept from casualties.
Russia went into this war with 120 BTG with them holding back 60 BTG in Belarus and Russia. In the entire country of Russia, there are only 170 BTG's per Defense Minister Shoygu via TASS. Based on the 60 BTG figures, they sent in around 600 tanks and 2400 vehicles with 48000 troops into the country. As the war got worse for Russia, they sent in the remaining of their BTG's into theater.
Now there are another 100,000 Russians in the rear likely as logistics but the bulk of the invasion force is being done at the BTG level.
There's also this website: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
They've visually identified 156 separate tanks lost for Russia. They're still trying to identify the rest.
They've visually identified 98 Armored Fighting Vehicles, 141 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 55 Armored Personnel Carriers, 6 MRAP's, 35 Infantry Mobility Vehicles, and 8 communication stations.
So let's do the math. 156 divided by 10 is 15.6 BTG equipment of tanks lost in Ukraine. 343 armored vehicles divided by 40 is 8.6 BTG equipment loss. So do we average it out and say 12.1 BTG equipment worth have been confirmed lost in action? You tell me.
Now the Ukrainian military has their own tally which we don't know how they come up with these numbers. As of March 9th, 2022,
They claim to have destroyed 317 tanks, 1070 Armored vehicles. SO back to the math thing again. That is 32 BTG equipment loss of tanks and 26 BTG equipment loss of armored vehicles.
So Russia most definitely has lost AT LEAST 8.6 BTG equipment (7.1% loss of equipment) all the way up to 32 BTG equipments (26.6% loss).
Understand? So yes, Russia is bleeding equipment and can't easily replace these losses because one of the things we've seen in this war is that Russia has been scaling down precision strikes which goes to show that Russia has a production rate capability problem that's endemic in their country likely due to corruption.
Anyways I recommend you read the Fort Benning article comparing BTG's to ABCT's on page 5.
Anyway, the pentagon disagrees with you.
The polices that US government and corporate leaders have committed us to seem to be predicated on the following assumptions. 1.) The war isn't going according to Russia's plan, this situation won't significantly change, and when the war finally does end Russia's position will be significantly weaker than it was at the start of the war. 2.) The current unity among US allies in support of Ukraine and in opposition to Russia is unprecedented. It's assumed this unity will get stronger or at keast hold steady. 3.) It's assumed the current 40 or so "neutral" nations will move in our direction or at least stay neutral.
Assuming the assumptions prove to be accurate, the current policy may be a sound one. As for the execution, it seems choppy in spots but generally quite good and getting better.
If the assumptions prove inaccurate, the end result is most likeky unmitigated disaster for us. I pray the assumptions our leadership class has made prove to be fully accurate.
The assumptions are likeky heavily based upon assessments being supplied by the US Intelligence community combined with a dose of wishful thinking. Unfortunately given the poor track record of our Intelligence services It's hard to have optimism in their assessments.
As the editor has often said, prepare for the worst. Hope for the best. This is good advice. I would add pray for the best and ask God for wisdom to help us deal with the situation in the event of the worst.
"Anyway, the pentagon disagrees with you."
Again it seems you don't know how to read. The Pentagon is talking about CASUALTIES.
Well said
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