Wednesday, March 30, 2022

The Next Operational Phase In Russia's Military Campaign In Ukraine

Map of the situation in Ukraine on March 29 provided by the French Ministry of Defense.  

Moon of Alabama: Ukraine SitRep - Part II Of Russia's Military Operation Unfolds 

Here are my own situation report notes:  

Overview: 

The Russian military operation in Ukraine began with a rather small force of some 150.000+ men against a much larger (including reservist and territorial forces) Ukrainian force of some 400.000. The Russian force used maneuver warfare to fix the larger Ukrainian forces into place. It attacked on a large front and threatened major population concentrations, i.e. cities. 

The Russian operations started with the destruction of the Ukrainian command and control network. Over the last four weeks the Ukrainian navy, its airforce, its radars and air defenses and a huge number of its armored vehicles were destroyed. Throughout the last week fuel depots all over the Ukraine were attacked and destroyed over night. Ukraine's large ammunition depots are gone. Military production and repair facilities have likewise been destroyed. The Ukraine is no longer able to move large numbers of troops between the various fronts. Its army has lost its mobility. 

While this was ongoing threats to Kiev, Odessa and other large Ukrainian cities have held significant numbers of Ukrainian troops in place and prevented reinforcements to move to the east. There units from the Donetsk and Luhansk republics attacked the 60,000 strong main force of the Ukrainian army to keep it in place. 

This allowed Russian forces from Crimea and from the Russian border in the north to move into positions that will now enable them to envelope the east.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: I completely agree with MOA's above analysis. Especially on the Ukrainian military debacle that is unfolding in eastern Ukraine.  

Update: Here is another analysis on what the Russian military is doing, and on how the 200,000 manned Russian military in Ukraine is waging war against the 600,000 strong Ukrainian military .... Big Arrow War—a primer (Threadreader).

5 comments:

Andrew Jackson said...

Birds of a feather be morons together.

Anonymous said...


The Russian military's performance was unimpressive. They are fortunate NATO didn't respond as they could have. Nonetheless putin is getting his way.
I'm glad to get the viewpoint of this author. Such details have been missing in information I have been finding.

Jac said...

Is it an analysis or a wishful thinking?

MaoTin said...

Nazi stuff in the article was such a cringe, and to think that people are actually believing that, but then again, American Elite(The Left) and media call everyone nazi/racist who disagrees with their ideology/viewpoints.

Anonymous said...

All comments like this are useful to read as they represent the view differnt from mainstream one sided view. Still, even if many sobering thoughts are worth considering the author is obviuosly very much pro russian and so blind to the rational interpretation.
Reality would be lost in fog of war and both sides are operating under much uncertainty and making mistakes.
If russia keeps going long enough it will win nobody doubt is. The actual question is what price it will pay and what price will the world pay and how the new world will look like.
Every side is highly burdened by confirmation bias right now and would not accept rationality. In couple of years we will bw hearing a lot from very clever historians what exactly all of us did wrong right now