Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Tweets On The Russia Ukraine War

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The humanitarian corridor actually coming to fruition so fast is both a relief and surprise. Russian forces did this hundreds of times with the jihadists in Syria but most of the time the fighters would get cold feet at the last minute and not allow the civilians to leave the pocket, knowing that they'd all get shredded by air power as soon as the civvies left. It took years to get to a place where both sides respected the agreements and as a result a lot of civilian lives were spared.

Suffice to say the Ukrainian forces in Mariupol have decided to not use human shields despite the very real tactical benefit gained by forcing Russia to think twice about blowing up a piece of military equipment surrounded by them.

I think this possibly foreshadows another parallel to the Syrian war. In a week or a month we could see Ukrainian militia/armed forces themselves being bussed out as well, back to Ukrainian held territory. Live to fight another day, as it were.

This was the tempo used in reclaiming most of Syria.

1. Surround a town
2. Negotiate the release of the civilians
3. Shell/bomb the fighters who refuse to leave for a day or two to demonstrate the odds of success
4. Offer them extraction back to friendly lines in return for surrendering the town
5. Advance to the next town.

Rinse and repeat like that. Eventually it resulted in Idlib province being sequestered off with the most hardened al qaeda, ISIS, jihadi types that the government doesn't know what to do with, but nobody serious believes Putin plans to push all the way to Lviv. This is how Russia will begin to flip the densely populated civilian areas that is has largely avoided until Mariupol, without having to kill every last person within.