Sunday, March 20, 2022

Was Putin's Decision To Invade Ukraine A Last Minute Decision?

The assembled grandees sat distanced in rows far from Putin. kremlin.ru  

The Intercept: U.S. Intelligence Says Putin Made a Last-Minute Decision to Invade Ukraine 

The U.S. likely relied in part on intercepted communications among senior Russian government and military officials. Despite staging a massive military buildup on his country’s border with Ukraine for nearly a year, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not make a final decision to invade until just before he launched the attack in February, according to senior current and former U.S. intelligence officials. 

In December, the CIA issued classified reports concluding that Putin hadn’t yet committed to an invasion, according to the current and former officials. In January, even as the Russian military was starting to take the logistical steps necessary to move its troops into Ukraine, U.S. intelligence again issued classified reporting maintaining that Putin had still not resolved to actually launch an attack, the officials said. “The CIA was saying through January that Putin had not made a decision to invade, but he was putting in place pieces for an invasion,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official, who asked not to be identified in order to discuss sensitive matters. “I think Putin was still keeping his options open.”  

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WNU Editor: U.S. intelligence may be onto something. Russia's stock market crashed on Monday, February 21, a few days before the February 24 invasion. Only Putin knows when he decided to proceed with the invasion, but my gut tells me that he made it official to his inner circle during that weekend, and they (and their friends) unloaded their positions when the markets opened Monday morning.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

So does Putin sit so far away from everyone because he’s afraid of the Russian version of Claus von Stauffenberg in his midst?