Friday, March 18, 2022

What Is Ukraine President Zelensky's End Game To End The War?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pictured on March 17 as he delivers a video address in Kyiv. (Ukrainian presidential press service / handout)  

Washington Post: Mixed signals from Ukraine’s president and his aides leave West confused about his end game  

The mounting death toll in Ukraine has forced President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider concessions to Russia in order to bring an end to the devastating conflict, but the specific elements of any peace deal his government may be discussing with Moscow remain a mystery to Western leaders, said U.S. and European officials. 

The secretive rounds of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators could hold the key to ending the conflict but also carry broader implications for European security depending on how the warring parties settle their differences. If Russian President Vladimir Putin can use military force to compel political change in Ukraine, he could use the same tactic elsewhere, U.S. and European officials fear.  

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: Two weeks ago Israeli PM Bennett advised Ukraine President Zelensky to immediately sue for peace with Putin, and to concede to his demands. My guess is that Bennett, after talking with Putin, transmitted the message to Zelensky that if Putin's demands were not met, much of Ukraine will be razed to the ground. In response, Zelensky refused .... Ukraine Official Says Israeli PM Bennett Told Ukrainian President Zelenksy That He Should Take Putin's Offer To End The War (March 11, 2022). 

Today .... I do not sense the same resolve in Zelensky that he showed two weeks ago. This is probably why the West is surprised by the mixed signals that are coming from the Ukraine President who is now looking for a way to end this war. My gut tells me that Zelensky has gamed this out, and he realizes that Putin is determined to get what he wants regardless of the cost, and he has the resources to do it. 

And as for the West. Aside from shipping weapons, the West is not going to get directly involved in a conflict with Russia. For all intent and purposes. Zelensky and the people of Ukraine are on their own, and Zelensky knows it.

16 comments:

B.Poster said...

Rep Marjorie Taylor-Greene appears to understand reality as well. If only the Ukrainian leadership would've heeded the advice of their true friends such as her and former POTUS Trump from the start, this whole thing could've been avoided!!

When decisions are made based upon ideology as opposed to reality, it tends to end badly!! I hope and pray we learn from this folly.

Anonymous said...

"And as for the West. Aside from shipping weapons, the West is not going to get directly involved in a conflict with Russia."

Joe is a coward. His handlers are cowards.

Israel has fought its enemies to standstill or better before any truce or peace. Bennett does not know what he is talking about.

Putin is no different than Hitler.

Anonymous said...

The West is doing more than just shipping weapons. It is providing humanitarian aid, other military supplies, keeping supply lines to Ukraine open, its volunteers are arriving to fight, and has instituted economic sanctions on Russia. It is undoubtedly providing military intelligence as well as advice. And once the war is over, it will also likely provide economic aid to rebuild Ukraine.

But yes, the NATO militaries won't intervene because turning this into WWIII won't do anyone any favors. Zelensky would obviously like additional troops and the equipment that comes with it. This has to be disappointing to him. But Ukraine has not been abandoned.

That Ukrainian forces are now able to conduct limited counter offensives is a good sign. I think Bill Roggio's comments are trenchant and needed, but I think he probably is taking a more negative stance than he normally would just to keep balance with the more propagandistic news reporting. The fog of war is dense. But Ukraine has far exceeded almost everyone's expectations in three weeks of war (including mine, don't think my criticisms of WNU Editor's initial predictions means I did any better).

All the news we get concerning peace negotiations clearly shows that Zelensky is still seeking real security guarantees in exchange for peace. In other words, he is willing to give Russia a "victory" that Ukraine won't join NATO... as long as he can get real security guarantees from NATO members, improve his military, and keep Ukraine's sovereignty. In other words, he knows the difference between facts on the ground and mere words. My impression is that he knows he can get a better deal the longer he holds out.

Holding out alone is brutal. But Churchill did it, Chiang Kai Shek did it, as have many others. And many of them achieved their goals in the end.

Putin has clearly abandoned his maximalist goals. The question now is when he can be reduced to agreeing to terms Ukraine is willing to accept. The vice versa is also true, but Ukraine is likely more willing to accept the casualties needed to keep their sovereignty than Putin is for what is ultimately a war of convenience.
Chris

fazman said...

And zelensky k own that with these west's weapons he can grind Russia to a stalemate

fazman said...

Well said

Anonymous said...

retarded government on 2 sides just cant live in hell nomore

Anonymous said...

all president go 2 hell soon

Anonymous said...

take ur animals with u

Anonymous said...

so u will be killed and eaten

Anonymous said...

moscow will fall soon afganistan help u

Anonymous said...

south america will help u

Anonymous said...

truth will help u

Anonymous said...

federation space help u

Anonymous said...

rip putin

fazman said...

The reality is no such thing, ukraine may very well win this in every se se of the word.
The bulk of Western weapons has yet to land, the cost for putin will get too high , and once his mem run out of cats to eat they will head home.
The good thing is the hreat Russian army myth has been well and truly exposed as hyperbole and western Europe can sleep easy knowing that they couldn't defeat France let alone nato


Anonymous said...

Brother, USA's hockey team can beat Russia's. That doesn't mean anything when the outcome of a real conflict is eventually nuclear war.