General view of the site of a bombing at a shopping center as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine March 21, 2022. REUTERS/Marko Djuricá
Richard Fernandez, PJ Media: When Will the War End?
As the conflict in Ukraine enters its second month, distraught members of the public are bound to ask: “when will the war end?”
The honest answer is nobody knows.
The actual war in Ukraine may last for months or years; the greater Cold War II of which it is the first skirmish will likely continue for decades, even beyond the lifetime of those reading these words. And it is likely to become more brutal.
The heartrending scenes of combat and siege, as with Mariupol, repeat what history endlessly teaches: as combat drags on everyone’s behavior gets uglier, the dispatches from the front less truthful, the choices more cruel as people in their multitudes struggle to survive if only for one minute more. The last shreds of peactime civility cease to moderate behavior and civilization enters a dark hole, from which we hope — but only hope — to God to emerge from someday.
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WNU Editor: First things first. We are now in Cold War II. Expect an arms build-up and all the risks that it will entail. This alone is going to last a decade and/or when Russian President Putin is no longer on the scene.
As to when will the Russia - Ukraine war end?
I do not have a good feeling on this war. The second Chechen war lasted almost a year, and the insurgency lasted another 9 years in a conflict that killed thousands and resulted in the destruction of every major city and town in Chechnya.
Is it possible that the Russia - Ukraine war will last just as long, and be just as destructive?
My gut tells me yes.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has already vowed to never surrender, even if it involves the destruction of his country.
Russian President Putin is saying the same thing. From his point of view this war is necessary because he sees the current framework as an existential national security threat to Russia. With this mindset I do not see Putin putting a stop to his invasion.
With no common ground to negotiate and compromise, and if both Zelensky and Putin continue to stay in power, this war can easily grind on for two or three years. The country will end-up fractured like Yugoslavia, and there will be an insurgency in the western part of the country that can go on for years.
But before that happens we are going to see multiple Mariupol urban warfare scenarios that will result in the destruction of every major Ukrainian town and city. Casualties will be in the hundreds of thousands, half of the population will be displaced (if not more), and Europe will face a minimum of ten million refugees.
The global consequences of this war also cannot be underestimated. Both Russia and Ukraine provide food and agricultural products that feed hundreds of millions of people. This loss of food will result in hunger and the possibility of famine in food dependent countries.
Russia is also a major supplier of metals and energy. The economic impact of this loss have yet to be estimated.
There is also this horrible possibility. The longer this war continues the greater the chance of it spreading into neighboring countries and all the risks that a NATO - Russian war will entail. A war that will certainly involve nuclear weapons and an outcome that will leave future generations bitter and angry for decades.
5 comments:
I don't think we'll ever see Russian troops occupying western Ukraine. The people there don't speak Russian and almost no one harbors any sympathy for Moscow there. For all the hopium that the MSM-exclusive consumers are huffing right now, an occupation in the west actually would be suicidal for Russian forces.
"But before that happens we are going to see multiple Mariupol urban warfare scenarios that will result in the destruction of every major Ukrainian town and city. Casualties will be in the hundreds of thousands, half of the population will be displaced (if not more), and Europe will face a minimum of ten million refugees. "
Europe will see an influx of skilled labor. These people are skilled unlike the ones Mutti took in. Russia will suffer a horrendous labor shortage form all the battlefield casualties.
The Muslims from the south and Chinese will gladly fill the void and take stock. Russia's streets will get more crime ridden.
If effective anti-air systems are developed or enough of them put in, Then the Ukrainians will push east of the Dnieper. Russia could lose 25% of of its military. It will remain to see who runs out equipment first, NATO or Russia.
Russia attacked dishonestly from all 4 sides and from "neutral" countries. If the front stabilizes, Russia can kiss Tranistria away. The Ukrainians won't want a force behind them.
If the front stabilizes than like in Afghanistan the CIA and others will get their back up and start pouring more and more money into the project. The CIA did not hold out much hoe for Afghanistan. They thought they could bleed the USSR for little while, They did not initially believe they could win. The same situation will hold true ion Ukraine.
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cont'd
The nuclear threats will only work so long. Sooner or later the State Department, then White House and others will have to act like soldiers going into battle. They must assume they re already dead.
If Putin must win or he is dead, the West can give him an out. They can guarantee the safety of him and his family and retire him to Tahiti or similar place complete beach house nd mai tia's. It is cheaper than a nuclear war and living up to the bargain is in the West's best interest for future such deals to work.
PS: It would be nice if XI and Putin release there dirt on Biden. Otherwise the Beltway is going to be full of themselves nd that will be awful for all involved.
7:56: "Otherwise the Beltway is going to be full of themselves nd that will be awful for all involved."
TOO LATE!
With a war looking to last for months or even years, I don't understand why the WNU Editor still believes that Ukraine will end up fractured and an insurgency in western Ukraine. That implies he thinks that Russia will still win decisively and in complete triumph. How is this even possible given current Russian performance?
At this point, the entire West is supporting Ukraine. Russia is on its own. Russia cannot outproduce the West in armaments. Given time, Ukraine will stabilize the frontlines and secure its western airspace. Once that's done, even more arms can be sent to Ukraine safely. And western Ukraine will develop into the center for the Ukrainian war economy - producing its own arms and needed civilian supplies.
The most likely scenario is that Russian forces are eliminated west of the Dnieper eventually, and a to-be-determined frontline east of the Dnieper stabilize. While it is possible that Russian will ground Ukraine enough that Ukraine agrees to terms favorable to Putin, at this point it is equally plausible to speculate that the Ukrainian military will improve to the point that it can regain territory in its east, possibly even Crimea and the Donbas (partially or in whole) that it lost in 2014. Hell, at some point even Moldova might move in forces and reclaim Transnistria.
Given current trends, a war of even three months could mean 50,000 Russian dead and 150-200,000 total casualties. The same applies to Ukraine, but the Ukrainians know they are fighting for their survival as a nation. This is an optional war with Russia.
Not to mention at some point, all those destroyed tanks, artillery, APCs, and other vehicles will have to be replaced. Currently that's likely around 500 tanks, 1500 other armored vehicles, and 1000 vehicles. These aren't numbers easily replaced. Russia can replace some with their existing stockpile, but that's sending obsolete equipment to replace newer ones. You don't need javelins or NLAWs to destroy a fifty year old T-72. Older TOWs and RPGs can do that. And Russian industry certainly isn't capable of replacing these losses in real time. Russian effectiveness will likely degrade, and their relative superiority to Ukrainian forces diminish.
With just one month's worth of fighting, Putin has delayed the inevitable realization among Russians as to the extent of Russian casualties. But that delay will be running out soon. Soon mothers, fathers, and wives will want to know why they haven't heard from their loved ones, and it'll spread how much it has cost Russia. But once that happens, it'll be hard to keep current casualties a secret. At what point does the casualties reach a point that the country turns against him? Short, victorious wars add to a leader's prestige. Prolonged conflicts sap their strength.
And if it is longer than three months? What is going to left of the Russian military? Replacing conscripts is one thing. Those elite paratrooper and spetsnatz killed trying to take Kyiv and kidnap/murder Zelensky initially can't be replaced anytime soon. Russia's operational losses will force Russia into making some decisions it doesn't want to do.
Eastern Ukraine will be heavily ravaged tragically, and it's possible the final peace terms will see Ukraine conceding some of its territory. But unless Russia somehow makes dramatic advances soon, there's a real possibility that Ukraine will be able to launch a successful counteroffensive that retakes some of their territory sometime in the next two months. It's possible - not definite - that Russia has more or less reached its high water mark.
Chris
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