How Long Can The Western Consensus On The Ukraine War Hold?

PARIS: G7 leaders pose for a group photo at the Elysee Palace in Paris on May 8, 2022, on the 74th day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Paul Adams, BBC: Ukraine war: How long can the Western consensus hold? 

With Russian forces making slow, grinding progress in the eastern Donbas region and military experts speaking of a long war of attrition, have cracks started to appear in the West's support for Ukraine? 

As he directs the fighting from the gleaming white halls of the Kremlin, what does Vladimir Putin make of the swirling Western debates over how best to support Ukraine, and the extent to which Russia should be punished? 

In one corner, he sees governments in Britain, Poland and the Baltics calling for his unambiguous defeat. 

"We need to make sure that Russia is driven out of Ukraine by the Ukrainians," the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said last week.

"There can't be any compromising over Ukrainian territory." 

But in the other corner, Mr Putin sees leaders in France, Germany and Italy calling for a different approach. 

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WNU Editor: This week's announcement that the EU will ban the purchase of Russian oil in 9 months is confirmation to me that the governments in the EU are now accepting the fact that this is going to be a long war. A conflict that will still be ongoing in 2023, and maybe longer. 

With this in mind the question that needs to be asked is .... will the citizens in the EU be willing to suffer for a year (or more) the grim prospect of high energy prices and shortages, economic shockwaves, and the migration of even millions of more refugees? Can the EU convince its citizens that this is a sacrifice that is necessary and justifiable? 

If the public does not support this sacrifice, the Western consensus on the Ukraine war will collapse. If the public accepts it, the Western consensus holds. 

I personally think this consensus will will not be tested until winter. When winter comes the European public are going to be seeing crippling energy costs, an inflation rate that is going to shock everyone, industrial shutdowns because of rationing, and widespread shortages. To say that we are entering a rough period is an understatement. 

For the past few decades the wars and suffering on our TV and computer screens was always over there in some faraway place. No more now. The Russia - Ukraine war is going to be impact all of us in the West directly. 

In fact it is already impacting us.

If this cannot be contained we may see frustrations boil to levels that have not been seen on the streets of Europe in our lifetime. In the event that happens, consensus will not be a priority of Western governments. What will be the priority is their own self-preservation.