CIA Director: Ukraine War Forcing China To Rethink ‘How And When’ It May Invade Taiwan

 

The Guardian: Ukraine war forcing China to rethink ‘how and when’ it may invade Taiwan, CIA chief says 

Bill Burns says China ‘unsettled’ by Russia’s war in Ukraine and it may influence decisions on the possible use of force against Taiwan Russia’s experience in Ukraine is affecting China’s calculations on how and when it may decide to invade Taiwan, the head of the CIA said on Wednesday. 

Appearing at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency director Bill Burns played down speculation that Chinese president Xi Jinping could move on Taiwan after a key Communist party meeting later this year. 

“The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get,” Burns said, adding: “I wouldn’t underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert China’s control” over self-ruling Taiwan.  

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Update: CIA chief: Putin's war on Ukraine forcing China Taiwan invasion rethink (Axios).  

WNU Editor: My view is slightly different from the CIA Director's analysis. 

The Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is resulting in China accelerating its arms buildup .... China's Military Buildup Is 'Most Ambitious' Since WWII, Australia Warns (Axios). Decoupling itself from Western financial institutions .... China cut US debt holding amid 'risk of possible conflict' (SCMP). And the promotion of BRICS and a multi-polar world .... New World Order: China Promotes ‘Non-Western Multilateralism’ at BRICS Summit (National Interest). 

There is also a perception in Beijing that Washington is sliding into a political crisis. 

The mental and physical health of President Biden is now being widely discussed in China. The US is in the middle of an economic crisis with inflation and debt levels at historic highs. There is an expectation in Beijing that the Democrats are going to suffer a massive political defeat in the midterms that will then lead with the Republicans launching a number of investigations and hearings on President Biden's son and how the President personally benefited from his son's business deals next year. US political scandals have always been exploited by America's adversaries. China is not an exception to that rule.

And then there is the US political and military defeat in Afghanistan. The aftershocks of that disaster may no longer be an issue in the U.S., but in Asia it has destroyed President Biden's credibility that can never be recovered.

What all of this means is not a delay in China imposing its will on Taiwan as the CIA Director is saying. But an acceleration. An opportunity to take advantage of a weakened US President and a country that is more focused on its own internal problems, rather than being involved in another Asian conflict.