Who Is Winning The War In Ukraine?

Russian forces took over the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk in June.(Reuters: Alexander Ermochenko)  

Isabella Higgins, ABC News Australia: Who is winning the war in Ukraine? Putin's forces conquered 20 per cent of the nation, but a chilly deadline looms 

 Ukraine has now been under almost constant bombardment from Russia for more than four months, but the defining months could be just ahead, analysts say. 

"The war is on something of a knife edge at the moment," Michael Clarke, former director of the Royal United Services Institute, told ABC News. 

"Ukrainians are in a very difficult situation because they're running out of ammunition, they're being outgunned on the battlefield. 

"They have to hang on desperately for the next two to three months before the pendulum will begin to swing in their favour." 

Russia is now thought to occupy around 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, with fierce fighting taking place in the eastern Donbas region of the country.  

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WNU Editor: Before the war Ukraine was dependent on Western financial, economic, and military aid to keep the lights on, salaries and services paid for, and a functional army that could keep constant pressure on the separatist regions in the Donbas. The war has changed everything, and removing that aid now would definitely make it impossible for Ukraine to sustain the war effort. 

At the moment the Ukraine military is still functioning, but since the fall of Mariupol in May, and the collapse of the line in northern Donbas, the Ukrainians themselves are now admitting that many of their best soldiers have now either been killed/wounded/or captured. The loss of military equipment and supplies have also been staggering, and what Ukraine will receive from the West in the coming months will come nowhere near what they did need to hold territory, let alone mount an offensive later in the summer to reclaim territory. A fact that Ukraine President Zelensky and his government officials are reminding the West everyday.

To say that this is not how wars are won is an understatement. 

I am also sensing among my many Ukrainian family members, friends, and contacts that the Kyiv government needs a major and significant strategic military victory this summer to give hope to their supporters that Ukraine will not only persevere, but ultimately be victorious in this war by gaining back most if not all of the lost territories, including Crimea. Absent that I have been told that there will be a collapse of morale in the army, and public support to continue the war will be replaced for a push to end it. 

On the Russian side I sense the opposite mood among my family, friends, and contacts in that country. This all changed after the victory in Mariupol, and there is now a growing confidence among the Russian public that the war will be won, and it will be the Kremlin's terms that will accepted. 

As to claims from Western media outlets, governments, and their military experts that Russia cannot sustain its war effort in Ukraine .... I disagree. I see no evidence that the Russian offensive is slowing down, and in fact I see the opposite, the Russian offensive is intensifying. I also know that Russia's military industrial complex is running 24/7, and I have no doubt that if there is a problem in getting military supplies, Putin will shift the Russian economy into a wartime economy, a measure that so far he has refused to decree with the excuse that it is not necessary. 

As to Russian military manpower losses. This has been difficult to measure. 

In their latest report on the war, Ukraine is saying that they have killed 36,000 Russian and Russian allied military personnel. U.K. intelligence reports say that Donbas militia strength has been degraded by 50%. I however see no evidence of this. 

In Ukraine among all of my family/friends/and contacts, everyone knows someone directly or indirectly who has been killed or wounded serving in the military since the start of the war. Among my larger network of family/friends/and contacts in Russia, no one knows anyone who has been killed or wounded. Even independent investigations are finding death toll numbers far lower than what the West is claiming .... Russian Army Death Toll in Ukraine Tops 3,000 – Investigation (Moscow Times). If this is true, it explains why there is Russian public backlash against the war has disappeared, and what opposition exists will be ignored as I am learning when I try to convince my family members on why this war must end.

Bottom line. If current trends continue, Russian President Putin will achieve his military objectives in Ukraine. This includes the destruction of much of the Ukraine army. All Ukrainian military forces out of the Donbas. And as a bonus the occupation of even more Ukrainian territory that will be used as leverage against Kyiv. 

On the political and economic front I see a different story. Russia will lose. Russia will be ostracized from the West for the next decade or two, and there will be a heavy cost (yet to be determined) on that isolation.