Will The Ukraine Army Collapse?

Members of the Carpathian Sich battalion talk at the group's forward operating base, at the frontline in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, July 1, 2022. REUTERS/Marko Djurica  

Daniel Davis, 19FortyFive: The Dark Scenario: Ukraine’s Military Can’t Beat Russia and Collapses 

The War in Ukraine Could End Quite Badly for Kyiv: Last Wednesday, U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Brown said the United States was now considering sending American fighter planes to Ukraine to join its war against Russia. The CIA Director estimated as many as 60,000 Russians had been killed or wounded since February. Though many things seem to be trending against Moscow, for very practical reasons – of which few Westerners are aware – Russia has a plausible chance of winning its war against Ukraine, while Kyiv has virtually no such path. 

This is the second in a series of three assessments of the possible outcomes of the Russia/Ukraine war between now and the end of 2022. In the first installment, we looked at the chances of a stalemate and a partial Russian victory. In this latest analysis, we look at the possibilities of either a total Russian victory or a total Ukrainian victory. Between the two prospects, this analysis reveals that Moscow has a chance of defeating Ukraine while Kyiv has virtually no chance of defeating Russia. 

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WNU Editor: What is note-worthy in the above post is the admission that Ukraine is losing 1,000 soldiers a day (killed and wounded), and that most of its best fighters have now been eliminated. It also admits that Ukraine needs massive quantities of weapons and military vehicles to replace what has already lost. And while I do not see the Ukraine army collapsing anytime soon, as an effective fighting force I do see them becoming inconsequential if the war continues into next year and if Western economic and military support is not significantly increased.