The big story tomorrow will be the US midterm elections. Everyone is predicting a Republican tsunami, but no one knows how bad the results will be for the Democrats. I personally think it will be bad, but I wonder if it will make any difference in the end. The Republican party has a long history of letting its supporters down, and my gut tells me that they are going to do it again.
The energy crisis continues to worsen. Government policies have made this into a disaster, and I do not see the people who put us into this disaster approving policies that will go against their green agenda. The only hope that we have is to vote these people out, but I doubt that is going to happen anytime soon. U.S. voters hate Congress, but they love their representative.
The battle for Pavlivka has resulted in heavy casualties for both sides. 300+ Russian Marines killed. Many more wounded. And the Ukraine numbers are just as bad .... maybe even worse. I am reading Russian social media reports that the Generals who ordered this attack were going to be dismissed, so as a last hurrah they decided to launch this attack. Four days of hell for hundreds of soldiers was the result. The attack has been called off, but I believe this is only temporary. Pavlivka is a strategic stronghold that Russia must gain if it has any hope of seizing the southern part of Donbas. Expect another offensive in December.
The Russian mood on Ukraine is also changing. I hear it in my cousin's voice when I talk to them. They are angry, not at Putin, but at the West, and more specifically at the US for interfering in this conflict. Many are also resigned that this is going to be a long war, a sentiment that I am also in agreement with.
Catherine the Great's statue is going to be removed from Catherine the Great's Square in Odessa. It was she who founded Odessa, but through a Facebook poll we are now being told that 8,000 (out of a population of one million) want the statue remove. I have walked by that statue more times than I can count over the years. It is sad that her days are now numbered.
12 comments:
"The Russian mood on Ukraine is also changing. I hear it in my cousin's voice when I talk to them. They are angry, not at Putin, but at the West, and more specifically at the US for interfering in this conflict."
Interesting how you see that in everyone's time. Since this was began, started by Russia, you've never shied away from stating that western involvement was a mistake, that they should have let Russia take Ukraine (not that they would be able) and seize a sovereign nation that doesn't belong to them.
Thankfully opinions like yourself are a minority in Russia and elsewhere. Not everyone is blind to the slaughter perpetrated by Russia, not everyone attributes that to Russian involvement.
Hitler had his symps and followers. Putin does too. But they are far and few. Not the 80-90% population of Russia you claimed awhile back.
Actually what you said applies to you and not the blogger.
Caecus
Russian problems and increasing Western involvement are partly the result of Russian mistakes. Invading Ukraine on multiple axes with a limited force. Refusing to target energy and transport infrastructure from the beginning. Not mobilising immediately, etc
Response
Ukraine
1. I do not blame the Ukrainians being angry at the West. Since the coup in 2014 the West has been calling the shots in Ukraine. Now due to a large part of the West's influence and power, Ukraine is engaged in a War. This could have been avoided if the Minsk agreements had been followed and the Ukrainians did not embark on a crusade of anti Russian policies. Not a good idea to treat about 1/3 of your population like third class citizens and paint them as deplorables.
And what was the reason to engage in these discriminatory policies when they lived together for so many years without them? Whose idea was this? Before 2014 things were bad in the Ukraine, But did it get any better economically or socially after 2014? Practical observation says no. The country fell into a civil war type of situation and also pissed off its powerful neighbor. This situation has now evolved into a full scale war.
A war, by the way , that the Ukrainians have little chance of winning. BTW This is not my doing, I nearly foretell.
I would be angry too. Not because I do not want to fight, but because all of this, all of it, was avoidable. Now we have dead bodies, destroyed villages and hate, lots of hate and tears. Think about it,...it will take years, generations to repair and heal the destruction and wounds of this conflict. And where are the jerks who started all of this? Well they flew to Europe or are still getting full meals, drinking good hot coffee and champaign and have hot running water in Kiev and Lviv. The rest are foreigners in DC and London.
Russian Military leadership
What was the tactical intel assessment like? Generals make decisions. The decisions are based on intel. If the intel is bad, you will make bad decisions. If the General made bad decisions based on faulty Intel, then those who generated that intel need to be punished also. The Incompetents (whoever they were). definitely need to be punished. But if it is like the American army , nothing truly punitive will happen.
But also remember these hard rules of war.
"All military operations base on acceptable loss."
"It is the destiny of a soldier to suffer and if need be die." (T.R. Ferenbach, This Kind of War)
Over all Russian Ukrainian conflict
Russian tactics and techniques being used / not used leave a lot of unanswered questions. Given modern technology and modern weapon systems the conduct of Russian battle operations (especially the employment of weapon systems) does not make sense. I can give a laundry list of examples. So, bottom line, ....is the Russian military incompetent? Maybe. Or is it a few bad apples that make everyone else look bad?
Energy crisis
Concur
Not going to get better.
No new refineries
no new wells
no new pipelines
more restrictive regulations
Russian markets restrictions
All the above work to tighten supply.
What happens when supply goes down but demand remains the same? Econ 101. Shortages can arise and the price of the product goes up.
The election
Concur.
a. Yes the Dems will loose control.
b. Yes, dems will wail and Nash teeth
c. After 40 years of observation, Yes the Republicans will not fail to disappoint when they take control. They will do nothing exciting or significant, as usual.
d. If historical pattern remains the same. Dems will come to power again in a few years and the progressive liberal agenda will once again go forward at an accelerated pace.
"The Republican party has a long history of letting its supporters down, and my gut tells me that they are going to do it again."
The Republicans coopted the the Party movement. One of the current Republican leaders had a PAC set up and hoovered up money and did squat. It is 3.5 cycles later after the start of the Tea Party movement and Republican leadership has done squat.
2013 after the 2012 election was bitter year. if Trump had come along on 2015/2016, the Republican party would not be dead. it would not be controlled opposition. It would be so moribund that Democrats would not care.
But Trump is the one unfit for office. Just this week some British wrote in the Daily Mail wrote that Trump was unfit.
People opine that Trump is narcissistic and that makes him unfit. Well I'll remind them that opinions are like assholes. I have argued over the kitchen table that Trump's supposed or real narcissism makes him a great leader or is part of it. An example is the border. Building a wall gives him great ratings and love. then he hears from other people. So he says he will put beautiful doors in the beautiful wall.
So where does that leave us. Where I think it leaves us is a wall with no illegal border crossing (or at least 90% less) and an amnesty after the border wall is complete. Every one gets something. Republicans get no more illegal crossings. Democrats get amnesty.
What does Trump get? Unheard of popularity. How is that bad? Think of it as a function. Trump maximizes his adulation by maximizing the number of happy people no matter their political stripe.
My point is assuming the charge of narcissism is true, how does that hurt us? I think it helps us.
McConnel and the rest of the snakes talk tough during election time and then after do what they want or govern Democrat-lite. They head fake every 2 years. Who is unfit for office?
Trump is fucking over the GOP and will split voters between him and DeSantis.
The wall was a total failure. The GOP, if as suggested take control, will offer nothing to mend problems but focus instead in going after Dems.
There is but one cause uniting the two parties: the military budget. The two parties never deny Pentagon requests but always add tons of money to what is asked for. And so sending military equipment to Ukraine is good for the military supply makers in a lot of states.
"The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they have a 'high' level of confidence that Russia is planning to flee Kherson after deciding the city is 'not worth defending'."
At the negotiating table Russia's chances of keeping any part of Kherson oblast is severely diminished, if the oblast's capital is in Ukrainian hands. Adolf Putin has to know this. So it would seem either Russia is bled white and weak or Russia is conserving its forces for a push elsewhere.
"There is but one cause uniting the two parties: the military budget. The two parties never deny Pentagon ..." - Russian dumbass nay weak ass troll
People move away from you at a party don't they!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#/media/File:U.S_-_China_-_Russia,_Military_Spending.svg
Yah, know, 8:41 (Russian pipsqueak) is right! The US defense budget never goes down!
There is bad and then there is BAD to quote a movie. Total gridlock until biden and his cronies are out in 2 years.
sorry DG
the only hope for gop president is "fixing" electoral system in a few key states. Popular vote will go for Dem president.
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