Monday, June 2, 2008

A Dark Corner of Europe, Part I

Editor's Note: Michael Totten is presently traveling through what was once known as Yugoslavia. Like all of his works, this is another must read piece on his observations of what is the situation on the ground in this part of Europe. It has been 9 years since the cessation of Europe's last war .... if war is to return to Europe it will be in this region again.
“If Yugoslavia was the laboratory of Communism, then Communism would breathe its last dying breath here in Belgrade. And to judge by what [Slobodan] Milosevic was turning into by early 1989, Communism would exit the world stage revealed for what it truly was: fascism, without fascism's ability to make the trains run on time.” - Robert D. Kaplan

“You bombed my country.” These were the nearly first words I heard after clearing passport control on arrival in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, from a taxi driver who flagged me down inside the airport. “Fifteen countries bombed my country.”

Read more ....

Two Commentaries On Iraq That Stick Out

The first commentary is from The Washington Post, no friend to the White House and its Iraq policy:

The Iraqi Upturn
Don't look now, but the U.S.-backed government and army may be winning the war.

THERE'S BEEN a relative lull in news coverage and debate about Iraq in recent weeks -- which is odd, because May could turn out to have been one of the most important months of the war. While Washington's attention has been fixed elsewhere, military analysts have watched with astonishment as the Iraqi government and army have gained control for the first time of the port city of Basra and the sprawling Baghdad neighborhood of Sadr City, routing the Shiite militias that have ruled them for years and sending key militants scurrying to Iran. At the same time, Iraqi and U.S. forces have pushed forward with a long-promised offensive in Mosul, the last urban refuge of al-Qaeda. So many of its leaders have now been captured or killed that U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, renowned for his cautious assessments, said that the terrorists have "never been closer to defeat than they are now."

Read more ....

The second commentary is from Michael Yon:

An Open Offer To U.S. Senators:

One of the biggest problems with the Iraq War is that politics has frequently triumphed over truth. For instance, we went into Iraq with shoddy intelligence (at best), no reconstruction plan, and perhaps half as many troops as were required. We refused to admit that an insurgency was growing, until the country collapsed into anarchy and civil war. Now the truth is that Iraq is showing real progress on many fronts: Al Qaeda is being defeated and violence is down and continuing to decrease. As a result, the militias have lost their reason for existence and are getting beaten back or co-opted.

Read more ....

My Comment: Michael Yon's comments appear to be on the money .... and the Washington Post's comments simply reinforce what Michael Yon is saying. They both point out the success of the Iraqi Army to attack and quell both Shiite and Sunni extremists. The training of the Iraqi Army has (and is) producing positive results .... lets see if it is sustainable. If it is, U.S. servicemen will be coming back home earlier rather than later.

Update: Iraqi Army Interdicting Iranian Operations -- American Thinker

Nuclear Bomb Blueprints, Manuals In Black Market?

From The Times of India:

LAHORE: Nuclear bomb blueprints and manuals on how to manufacture weapons-grade uranium for warheads are feared to be in circulation on the international black market, the Guardian has quoted investigators tracking the world's most infamous nuclear smuggling racket, as saying.

Alarm about the sale of nuclear know-how follows the disclosure that Switzerland, allegedly acting under United States' pressure, secretly destroyed tens of thousands of documents from a massive nuclear smuggling investigation.

Read more ....

My Comment: The man who started this mess is now ..... being rehabilitated. The possible consequences of this man's actions are best summarized by the following NATO manual .... The Nuclear Dimensions Of Jihadist Terrorism.

Taliban Leader Flaunts His Power Inside Pakistan

This article from the International Herald Tribune underscores the problem that is Pakistan, and why NATO will not be able to bring peace to Afghanistan.

PESHAWAR, Pakistan: With great fanfare, the Pakistani Army flew journalists to a rugged corner of the nation's lawless tribal areas in May to show how decisively it had destroyed the lairs of the Taliban, including a school for suicide bombers, in fighting early this year.

Then, just days later, the usually reclusive leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, held a news conference of his own, in the same region, to show just who was in charge.

He rolled up in an expensive-looking Toyota pickup packed with heavily armed Taliban fighters, according to the Pakistani journalists invited to attend. Squatting on the floor of a government school, Mehsud, clasping a new Kalashnikov, announced he would press his fight against the American military across the border in Afghanistan.

Read more ....

News From Other Sources:
Taliban flee U.S. Marines onslaught in Afghanistan -- Reuters
NATO: 10 militants killed in Afghan battle -- Yahoo News
Dozens of rebels killed in Afghan strikes -- Khaleej Times
Afghan insurgents 'on brink of defeat' -- Telegraph
Afghanistan President Karzai: 'I Wish I Had the Taliban as My Soldiers' -- Der Spiegel

My Comment: Summarizing the news reports that I had listed above, the following points stick out. The U.S. marines started kicking butt right away, surprising the Taliban and making then run for their lives. The Taliban are now fleeing to their safe houses in Pakistan, where they can rest, rearm, and regroup. Afghanistan's President wishes that his troops were the Taliban and not his own army and Nato.

Nato and the Afghan Government are clearly going through a crisis moment. While the Taliban are at a point where their gains for the past few years are about to wiped out in Afghanistan, the Afghan Government And Nato cannot claim victory because the leaders and backers for this war are in safe havens within Pakistan. Was U.S. Presidential candidate Barack Obama right when (early in the campaign) he was speculating on the need to invade Pakistan? I initially disregarded his comments .... but now I can see why he was making those comments.

It is clear ..... all roads that lead to Afghanistan's present conflict originate from Pakistan. The question that needs to be asked is how complicit is the Pakistan Government in this war, and why is the U.S. giving them billions of dollars in military aid. Something is not adding-up.

Update: Pentagon planning ‘boots on ground’ in Waziristan -- Daily Times Pakistan

Bomb Explodes Outside Danish Embassy In Pakistan

From Yahoo News:

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - A huge car bomb exploded outside the Danish Embassy in the Pakistani capital on Monday, killing at least six people and wounding dozens more, officials and witnesses said.

The blast echoed through Islamabad and left a crater more than three feet deep in the road in front of the main gate to the embassy. Glass, fallen masonry and dozens of wrecked vehicles littered the area. People, some bloodied, ran away in a state of panic.

Read more ....

Additional News Reports From Other Sources:
Bomb hits Pakistan Danish embassy -- BBC News
Car bomb kills 6 at Danish embassy in Pakistan -- Reuters
Suicide bomber targets Danish embassy in Pakistan -- CNN
More Cartoon Rage-- Suicide Bomber at Danish Embassy Kills 8 -- Gateway Pundit
Ayman Al-Zawahiri and the Attack on the Danish Embassy in Islamabad -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Large Explosion Rocks Danish Embassy in Pakistan -- FOX News
Explosion near Danish embassy in Islamabad kills over 8 people -- KUNA
Explosion near Danish embassy may be linked to offensive cartoons -- KUNA

My Comment: Pakistan's inability or unwillingness to stop terrorism is the root reason of why this bombing happen today. The Danish cartoons are just one of many off the wall excuses for this bombing to occur. The fact of the manner is that this bombing is just a continuation of what has been a never ending spiral of political and economic instability within the country. The bloodshed and tribal warfare in Pakistan is now starting to dwarf the conflict in Iraq, and unlike Iraq there is no light at the end of the tunnel for this conflict.

War News, Blogs, Opinions, And Wire Service Roundup -- June 2, 2008

WAR/TERRORISM NEWS SUMMARIES AROUND THE WORLD
United States Central Command
Global Security Briefs -- In Homeland Security
Complete Roundup Of World Trouble Spots -- Small Wars Journal
International, War, and Terrorism Headlines -- Rantburg
Morning Brief -- Foreign Policy
Global Incident Map
Global News -- Inform
Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs -- Canadian Perspective
Summary Of Wars & Conflicts: Right Hand Side Of Page -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Global Security News Roundup -- Global Security.org
Threatswatch
Latest News -- Strategy Page
Institute For War And Peace Reporting
Intelligence News Roundup -- Intelligence Online
Analysis And Commentaries -- International Relations And Security Network
Alertnet From Reuters -- Use Their Search Filter
Emerging Threats -- United Press International
International Forecasting And News -- Stratfor

IRAQ
Iraq News -- E I N News
Conflict In Iraq -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
War In Iraq -- MSNBC
Iraq News Online -- Times Online
Iraq News -- Inform
Iraq Weekly Status Report -- U.S. State Department
Iraq Updates
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count

AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Afghanistan Conflict Monitor
Afghanistan Update: April 1-30, 2008 -- Center For Defense Information
Operations In Afghanistan -- U.K. Ministry Of Defense

MIDDLE EAST
Mideast Conflicts -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Middle East Coverage -- Memri

SECURITY AND TERRORISM
Security -- MSNBC
Terrorism -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Terrorism -- MSNBC
National Terror Alert Response Center

U.S. MILITARY NEWS
U.S. Department Of Defense News
News in The Military -- Military News
Stars And Stripes
U.S. Armed Forces News -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Index Of Military Blogs: Stories Updated Daily -- Military.com
Milblogging: Stories Updated Daily -- Index Of Military Blogs
Directory Of Intelligence Sites -- Strategic IntelligenceComplete

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Last Post For Tonight -- Tribute To Female Soldiers in War Zones

Al Qaeda -- Did This Name Come From A Science Fiction Novel?

An intriguing article from The Guardian (From August, 2002):

It has become synonymous with the terrorist attacks of September 11 - but what is the origin of the name al-Qaida? Giles Foden on how Bin Laden may have been inspired by Isaac Asimov's Foundation

In October last year, an item appeared on an authoritative Russian studies website that soon had the science-fiction community buzzing with speculative excitement. It asserted that Isaac Asimov's 1951 classic Foundation was translated into Arabic under the title "al-Qaida".

The Arabic word qaida - ordinarily meaning "base" or "foundation" - is also used for "groundwork" and "basis". It is employed in the sense of a military or naval base, and for chemical formulae and geometry: the base of a pyramid, for example. Lane, the best Arab-English lexicon, gives these senses: foundation, basis of a house; the supporting columns or poles of a structure; the lower parts of clouds extending across a horizon; a universal or general rule or canon. With the coming of the computer age, it has gained the further meaning of "database": qaida ma'lumat (information base).


Read more ....

Johnson's Russia List Has more to say:

This peculiar coincidence would be of little interest if not for abundant parallels between the plot of Asimov's book and the events unfolding now. The central character of "The Foundation" named Seldon, the pioneer of a new scientific discipline called "psychohistory", predicts that the Galactic Empire is about to fall. While the process of disintegration cannot not be stopped, Seldon decides to send an expedition to a remote place on the outskirts of the Galaxy and establish The Foundation, which is to become the nucleus of the next Empire. Even though the Old Empire tries to destroy The Foundation with its superior military might, Seldon's plan eventually works despite many predicted difficulties and occasional random hiccups. Seldon does not live long enough to see the triumph of his cause, but he leaves videotaped messages at a machine timed to broadcast them to his followers and instruct them at the turning points of The Foundation's history, as his forecasts are coming true.

I think the public would be relieved to realize that the internationally feared Terrorist No. 1 is trying to mimic a scenario from his favorite science fiction novel. I also believe that the study of "The Foundation" (along with its sequels and prequels) can help the decision makers around the globe to better understand what they're up against and what the ultimate objectives of Osama bin Laden are, much in the same way a study of "Mein Kampf" would have benefited Adolf Hitler's counterparts a great deal if they bothered to read the book and paid attention to what it said.

Read more ....

More Articles And Comments On This Story:
Isaac Asimov & the al-Qaida? -- The Alien Next Door
War Of the Worlds -- American Samizdat
Foundation Of the Foundation -- Enthusiasm

My Comment: 7 books were written by Isaac Asimov to cover the Foundation series. The order that they were written and the order that they should be read are:

Prelude to Foundation (1988). This is the first Foundation novel.
Forward the Foundation 2 (1993). The second Foundation novel.
Foundation 3 (1951). The third Foundation novel but most of the world knows this book as the first member of the "Foundation Trilogy". Actually, it is a collection of four short stories, originally published between 1942 and 1944, plus an introductory section written for the book in 1949.
Foundation and Empire 3 (1952). The fourth Foundation novel, made up of two short stories, originally published in 1945.
Second Foundation 3 (1953). The fifth Foundation novel, made up of two short stories, originally published in 1948 and 1949.
Foundation's Edge (1982). The sixth Foundation novel.
Foundation and Earth (1986). The seventh Foundation novel.

For those who wish to read the books,

Free Links To Download The Foundation Series:
Vivien23 -- All 7 books are here
Bookworm -- You will have to download a file that has a number of Asimov's works, but the bonus is that book #8, Foundations Fear, is part of the collection

My Comment: I looked but could not find an Arabic copy of Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. Is this an urban legend .... i do not know .... but it would not surprise me if a young Osama Bin Ladin or Ayman al-Zawahiri read this book when they were teenagers.

Unraveling Al Qaeda — Important Article In TNR

Hat Tip To Austin Bay:

This is a very important article — a mainstream and liberal journal has noticed Al Qaeda’s information warfare loss and examined the roots of this defeat. The information loss is becoming a physical loss as well. The roots go deep — as StrategyPage noted way back on October 27, 2005 (see the previous link).

Read more ....

My Comment: Even though Al Qaeda has suffered heavy loses, as long as a significant portion of the Muslim street supports it (which it does), this terrorist organization will always be lethal. When Islam goes through its period of Reformation, that is when we can safely say that Al Qaeda is dead.

War News, Blogs, Opinions, And Wire Service Roundup -- June 1, 2008

WAR/TERRORISM NEWS SUMMARIES AROUND THE WORLD
United States Central Command
Global Security Briefs -- In Homeland Security
Complete Roundup Of World Trouble Spots -- Small Wars Journal
International, War, and Terrorism Headlines -- Rantburg
Morning Brief -- Foreign Policy
Global Incident Map
Global News -- Inform
Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs -- Canadian Perspective
Summary Of Wars & Conflicts: Right Hand Side Of Page -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Global Security News Roundup -- Global Security.org
Threatswatch
Latest News -- Strategy Page
Institute For War And Peace Reporting
Intelligence News Roundup -- Intelligence Online
Analysis And Commentaries -- International Relations And Security Network
Alertnet From Reuters -- Use Their Search Filter
Emerging Threats -- United Press International
International Forecasting And News -- Stratfor

IRAQ
Iraq News -- E I N News
Conflict In Iraq -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
War In Iraq -- MSNBC
Iraq News Online -- Times Online
Iraq News -- Inform
Iraq Weekly Status Report -- U.S. State Department
Iraq Updates
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count

AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Afghanistan Conflict Monitor
Afghanistan Update: April 1-30, 2008 -- Center For Defense Information
Operations In Afghanistan -- U.K. Ministry Of Defense

MIDDLE EAST
Mideast Conflicts -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Middle East Coverage -- Memri

SECURITY AND TERRORISM
Security -- MSNBC
Terrorism -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Terrorism -- MSNBC
National Terror Alert Response Center

U.S. MILITARY NEWS
U.S. Department Of Defense News
News in The Military -- Military News
Stars And Stripes
U.S. Armed Forces News -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Index Of Military Blogs: Stories Updated Daily -- Military.com
Milblogging: Stories Updated Daily -- Index Of Military Blogs
Directory Of Intelligence Sites -- Strategic IntelligenceComplete