Michael Yon Comments: Success In Iraq

Michael Yon

From Michael Yon:

14 July 2008

The war continues to abate in Iraq. Violence is still present, but, of course, Iraq was a relatively violent place long before Coalition forces moved in. I would go so far as to say that barring any major and unexpected developments (like an Israeli air strike on Iran and the retaliations that would follow), a fair-minded person could say with reasonable certainty that the war has ended. A new and better nation is growing legs. What's left is messy politics that likely will be punctuated by low-level violence and the occasional spectacular attack. Yet, the will of the Iraqi people has changed, and the Iraqi military has dramatically improved, so those spectacular attacks are diminishing along with the regular violence. Now it's time to rebuild the country, and create a pluralistic, stable and peaceful Iraq. That will be long, hard work. But by my estimation, the Iraq War is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won.

I wish I could say the same for Afghanistan. But that war we clearly are losing: I am preparing to go there and see the situation for myself. My friends and contacts who have a good understanding of Afghanistan are, to a man, pessimistic about the current situation. Interestingly, however, every one of them believes that Afghanistan can be turned into a success. They all say we need to change our approach, but in the long-term Afghanistan can stand on its own. The sources range from four-stars to civilians from the United States, Great Britain and other places. A couple years ago, some of these sources believed that defeat was imminent in Iraq. They were nearly right about Iraq, although some of them knew far less about Iraq than they do about Afghanistan. But it's clear that hard days are ahead in Afghanistan. We just lost nine of our soldiers in a single firefight, where the enemy entered a base and nearly overran it.

The news from Afghanistan is reason for pessimism. For some more optimistic news, please look at these statistics from Iraq, and remember that if we could turn things around in that country, we might be able to do the same in Afghanistan.

My Comment: I have tremendous respect for Michael Yon. He is a true war correspondent, who is on the scene all the time. This is why his comments today impacted me professionally.

I am not in the field like him. I rely on my information from people I know, reading a large number of blogs and related information sites, and having a certain instinct from a historical perspective (my area of expertise is history).

Last week I put my head up and said that for all practical purposes, the war in Iraq is over. That Al Qaeda, Bathist, and extremist Shiite command and control centers have been neutralized. That the only thing now left are dead-enders, individuals or small groups looking for revenge, and some foreign elements causing trouble. I received some criticism for making this statement, but my instinct told me that I was right.

Michael Yon ..... in his statement on his blog ..... independently agrees with my observation.

In the next few weeks Michael Yon is going to Afghanistan. I agree with his assessment that this is the next big fight. The British Empire, the Soviet Empire, and scores of other outsiders have failed to tame this land, and suffered greatly because of it.

Do we have a chance? Michael Yon's reports in the next few months will be a must read for all the families who have love ones in Afghanistan, to the politicians and strategists who are going to be forced to make some hard decisions in the next few months, and to the next American President who will be immediately confronting what will probably be his most difficult international assignment

Michael Yon relies on contributions from his readers ..... if you can, please donate ..... these involvement makes a difference.

Comment#2: Read the comments at the bottom of Michael Yon's report .... they relate to the problems of Afghanistan and Pakistan and on what is rapidly developing there. I have mentioned the same thing in previous postings, but Michael Yon's commentators are better at explaining what is happening in the war zone than what I possibly can.