U.S. Spies Said No Russian Invasion of Ukraine—Putin Disagreed -- Eli Lake and Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast
A day after U.S. intelligence said there would be no Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s troops started coming over the border.
On Thursday night, the best assessment from the U.S. intelligence community—and for that matter most experts observing events in Ukraine—was that Vladimir Putin’s military would not invade Ukraine. Less than 24 hours later, however, there are reports from the ground of Russian troops pushing into the Ukrainian province of Crimea; the newly-installed Crimean prime minister has appealed to Putin to help him secure the country; Putin, in turn, is officially asking for parliament's permission to send Russian forces into Ukraine. It’s not a full-blown invasion—at least, not yet. But it’s not the picture U.S. analysts were painting just a day before, either.
There was good reason to think Putin wouldn’t do it. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov told Secretary of State John Kerry that Russia respected the territorial integrity of the Ukraine. U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that the 150,000-man Russian military exercises announced by Putin on Wednesday were not preparations for an invasion of Ukraine because no medical units accompanied the troops. And Russian and U.S. diplomats were still working on Iran and Syrian diplomacy. All of this followed a successful Winter Olympic games for Putin’s Russia.
Read more ....
Update: U.S. scrambles on Russia monitoring over Ukraine -- CNN
My Comment: I can only assume that U.S. intelligence made the assumption (like I did a few days ago) that there was no reason for a Russian military incursion because Moscow already had all the levers of power to influence the new Ukraine government to it's will .... mainly economic .... but also political and (yes) military. What changed everything .... and very quickly .... was the reaction among Russians in Ukraine itself (they are pissed and worried) .... and the complete failure of the new Ukrainian government to placate and reassure this sizable Russian community in the south and eastern parts of the country that they have a "future" in this new Ukraine.
If I had to pinpoint where U.S. intelligence failed .... it was in underestimating the deep resentment and anger that the Russian-Ukraine community felt when the government that they had democratically voted in was overthrown .... and what had replaced it. Throw in the Ukraine government's new and discriminatory language laws, the destruction of statues dedicated to soldiers who fought against the Nazis, and ....what caught Moscow's attention .... the appointment of extreme Ukrainian nationalists/neo-nazis to three ministries in the new Ukraine government .... everything then came into play for the crisis that is escalating right now.
The U.S. State Department must also share blame for this disaster .... after-all .... they are the ones who pushed for all of this change in the first place .... a change that is blowing up in their faces right now.
3 comments:
May be we should concentrate on what matters rather than spying on us citizens.
This is not just an intelligence failure. Whether or not we saw this coming, our diplomatic posture and foreign policy clearly were ineffective.
Time for change.nwhate we have done has not worked.
Where a lot of people have had difficulties with this is in thinking that Putin would behave like they would. I believe you must try to see it from his perspective and in context of his past moves. He might think that he has no choice but to do what he's doing.
Post a Comment