OSCE observers saw no military equipment crossing at two border checkpoints along the Ukraine-Russia border, but there's a need to get aid to locals in eastern Ukraine, border-crossers said. Pro-Russian separatists stand next to a military truck in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, January 21, 2015. Reuters/Alexander Ermochenko
Carol Matlack, Bloomberg Businessweek: Why the Situation in Eastern Ukraine Is Getting Worse
Update: No end in sight as violence surges in Ukraine -- Deutsche Welle
WNU Editor: As I had mentioned in previous posts .... contrary to Ukraine media reports for the past week that a major offensive was launched to rout the pro-Russian rebels at the airport ... the reality on the ground was much different. This is why this defeat is a surprise for many in Ukraine and for their supporters outside .... they were told otherwise until reports starting to be posted that Russian military forces were involved in the conflict .... even though the OSCE saw 'No military equipment' crossed at observed Russia-Ukraine border checkpoints - OSCE (RT).... and two days later (i.e. today) we now hear that the Ukraine military has withdrawn from the area.
This is a humiliating military and political defeat, and there will be consequences starting with the government in Kiev adopting a far more brutal military and economic strategy. We are already seeing it in indiscriminate Ukraine air-force bombings of towns .... and I expect such bombings to not only intensify with the deliberately targeting of critical infrastructure targets like electrical/gas/and water plants, but it also will be coupled with even more economic sanctions.
On the bigger picture .... US military advisers and trainers are now arriving in Ukraine, and the EU has made it very clear that sanctions are not going to be lifted on Russia. Russia has also made ominous warnings that they are not happy with what is happening .... and may escalate their response to the crisis. In short .... from my vantage point it appears that all sides are now positioning themselves for the next level in this conflict .... which is more fighting/refugees/military deployments/and sanctions.
10 comments:
Can we officially call it now?
Yats and the Chocolate King have broken the / Ukraine,
Going forward, there will be a rump state, called perhaps, Ukrainia, and a rump state called NovaRussia,
And the border, will probably be further west than it is now.
I am not there yet Jay. I know Crimea will never be a part of Ukraine .... that is a done deal. NovaRussia .... that is a big step .... but if the war continues as it has in the past 6 months .... 6 months from now no one in eastern Ukraine will want to be a part of Ukraine. That will also be a done done deal .... even though the international community (with a few exceptions) will not recognize them for the next 50 years.
Also some bad news about the agreement yesterday: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/22/donetsk-trolleybus-explosion-peace-negotiations-russia-ukraine Also there are now some reports of Ukrainian airplanes bombing areas near Debalseve. Seems the war is back yes. Hope Poroshenko will back down but I doubt it.
Just asking what did Poroshenko say about the separatists today? just to clarify:
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on January 22 that pro-Russian rebels had paid a "high price" for their escalating attacks on government troops across the separatist-controlled east. Not will pay a high price.
Since I read that from here: http://www.rferl.org/contentlive/liveblog/26805126.html which one is true the former or the latter? Since I hope Poroshenko knows that this is a bad time making threats.
Now that the war has fully resumed how is it in Kharkov, since many bombs has been detonated there, do you think that the town may become pro Russian in some months time? Also now I doubt a coup since the war has resumed which will calm them.
The Court Bombing in Kharkov, appears to be the work of Pravy Sector, who were "pissed" that the Court had just convicted one of their own on criminal charges,
The bridge appears to be the work of NovaRussian Partizans.
The Ukraine Military response has been to demand the City Council give 2% of the budget to the Punative Battalions, ( denied), the building of more checkpoints, bunkers and defensive works, greater attempts at legally and illegally " lustrating" the town Administration, and many summary arrests of alledged pro-Russians.
Well some things never change regardless of the army or the time; joker mugging for the camera while one guy changes the flat tire (see jack under rear axle).
You know what James .... I did not even notice that. You are making me see pictures .... and the stories that they tell .... to a level that I never had before. Thank you.
Jay ... my aunt lives in Kharkiv. We agreed in November not to talk about the political and war situation on the phone and/or on Skype. Ukraine authorities are monitoring all communications now .... and if you voice any objections to what is going on , they will come to question. She is not worried about herself ... but she is worried about her husband, and she wants her kids and grandkids to come back (They all left a few months ago to Russia when the fighting in the neighboring regions of Luhansk and Donetsk was getting intense). But I do know from others that there is a great deal of anger over the overt military and militia presence in the city. Also .... what is not helping the situation is the continuous targeting and harassment of Russians in Kharkiv and in the surrounding regions .... including removing/firing those who work for any government institution or organization .... down to even the garbage man.
WNU Editor,
See if you can get your Aunt and her husband to leave, East or West really doesn't matter.
A central tenet of Ukrainian Nationalism, is that only Ukrainians are Ukrainians, ( Western Europeans) and all the "Slav's" and other Minorities, are not.
Yat's even called ethnic Russian Ukrainians sub-humans,
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2014/06/ukraine-echoes-of-the-third-reich-yatsenyuks-subhumans-.html
The Ukrainians cannot defeat the NovaRussians, the Russians will not allow it, and as Yats and the Chocolate King are doubling down on War, things are only going to get worse.
The Ukrainian Government respose to defeats, being panic, anger, paranoia and hysteria, does not bode well.
Thank you for your concern Jay. Unfortunately .... my aunt is a senior citizen and she does not want to go. I offered my home in Moscow and my parents home outside of Moscow to stay there until the situation blows over .... but they do not want to leave. My mom offered her sister money .... and she even refused that. These people are proud and stubborn .... what can I say.
WNU Editor,
Yup, I understand, still, press on them to keep " bugout" bags packed and ready.
Moon of Alabama notes, that between the new US SOF training mission to the Ukraine, and the "irregular" SRG mortar attack on civillians in Donetsk, terrorism is probably going to be the next major escalation, to the " stalemate".
Frogs in pots if you know what I mean.
LOL. Frogs in pots .... now that is a good one. :)
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