Will Ukrainian President Zelenskiy End The War?

President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy takes the oath on May 20, 2019 © REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Reuters: Ukraine's Russian-speaking president gives glimmer of hope to war-torn east

DONETSK/SLOVYANSK, Ukraine (Reuters) - In one of his first acts as Ukrainian president, comedian-turned-politician Volodymyr Zelenskiy held out a symbolic olive branch to people in Ukraine’s mostly Russian-speaking Donbass region, by switching from Ukrainian to Russian.

That gesture, during his inauguration in the Ukrainian parliament in May, sent a message of inclusion to people in the mainly separatist-controlled Donbass region. And for some, at least, it offers a faint glimmer of hope in a conflict that has claimed 13,000 lives and shows no sign of resolution.

Language was a factor in the outbreak of the conflict in 2014, with Russian speakers in Donbass saying they feared Kiev would impose the Ukrainian language on them. Ukraine says Russia exploited such fears to foment an anti-Kiev uprising that it also backed with troops and weapons. Moscow says it only provides political and humanitarian support to the rebels.

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WNU Editor: Any hopes for peace took a huge setback today with a new Ukrainian language law that came into force. Passed by parliament and signed by former Ukrainian President Poroshenko (it was the last piece of legislation that he signed as President), the bill stipulates that Ukrainian is the official language, and that all citizens must now be obliged to use the Ukrainian language in all spheres of life .... Ukraine Passes Language Law Banning Russian In Public Institutions, Schools, And Public Service Jobs (April 27, 2019). For the regions where Russian-Ukrainians are dominant, and where the language of choice has been Russian for centuries, the backlash has been overwhelming negative. Fortunately, there are parliamentary elections in Ukraine this Sunday, and if the polls are correct (and I believe that they are), the members of parliament who voted in this discriminatory and backward law are going to be universally voted out. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has promised that once his party wins Sunday's elections, they will rescind this law. All that I can say is .... the sooner the better. Not surprising, Moscow is using this law to its advantage .... Russia and West spar at UN over minority rights in Ukraine (AFP). More here .... Moscow calls on Council of Europe to react to Ukraine’s new language law (RT).

On a side note many have asked me why am I passionate about Ukraine. I forget that I get new readers everyday, and many are unaware of my connections and history with Ukraine. A few weeks ago in response to a comment on Ukraine, I posted a response that I am now re-posting below. I hope it answers any questions on why Ukraine is important to me:

My views on Ukraine comes from my family on my father's side whose roots I can trace back almost 3 centuries. My father was Russian-Ukrainian, and his/our family hometown is the city of Bila Tserkva, about 80 - 90 kilometres south of Kiev. And while Moscow became my father's home after the war, I am someone who has lived in Ukraine, even once thinking of buying a home near Odessa for my retirement years. Canada, Russia, and Ukraine .... I am a product of these three countries. And I am passionate on all three.

Long time readers of this blog also know that I warned in 2013 that if the democratically elected Ukrainian President (Viktor Yanukovych) was overthrown, it would fracture the country. His base of support mainly came from Russian-Ukrainians, and he was very protective of their minority rights. But it was not to be. Many Ukrainians were fed up with his corruption and incompetence, and they could not wait for the next election to vote him out. In my own family the Maiden Revolution caused some serious splits that are only healing now. My cousin's young daughter assisted protesters who were wounded in Kiev during the revolution, and even commandeered a building a few blocks from the square that her mom owned. Needless to say that this angered her mom, and other members of the family. She survived unscathed, and today she lives in Miami selling real-estate to Russian and Ukrainian businessmen/immigrants. She is also the poster child on what has gone wrong in Ukraine. She, like so many others .... have lost faith in the revolution, and do not want to go back. When did this break happen? I would say it happened when Ukrainian nationalists took control of parliament and passed legislation targeting Ukrainian-Russians, followed by President Poroshenko breaking his campaign promise to broker a deal with the separatists in the east.

It was also during this time that I was involved in helping friends who were parliamentarians to push for a federated political system like Switzerland's or Canada's. To defuse a crisis and start a dialogue before it got out of control. This initiative failed, because the decision was already made to send in the soldiers to stop the protesters in eastern Ukraine against the provisional government. Oleksandr Turchynov was President Of Ukraine from the end of February (2014) to the beginning of June when Poroshenko took over, and it was during this time that the worst decisions that anyone could make were made. His commitment to banning Russian, a language that is widely spoken in Ukraine, and to purge government/media/industry of Russian-Ukrainians, precipitated a blow-back that we are still living today. Regions like Crimea that are 85% Russian were stunned with what had happened, and when given a choice between a nationalist government in Kiev hell bent on targeting their language and culture or a pro-Russian government in Moscow that would guarantee their language and culture, not surprisingly they overwhelmingly chose Moscow. Russian President Putin .... who I have never supported .... took advantage of this crisis. And today .... I can say with 100% certainty .... Crimea will never go back to Ukraine.

What happened in Donetsk and Luhansk was also predictable. People in the Donbas regard themselves as Russians first, with a history that goes back almost 1,000 years. They are also fiercely nationalistic, and as my father told me many times, stubborn as hell. The Germans during the Second World War regarded this part of occupied Soviet territory to be impossible to rule, and it is also in this region that the first labour strikes against Communist rule in the former Soviet Union started. Gorbachev tried to crush these strikes by sending in KGB goons, but they were beaten up and sent back on the first train out of the region. That is who these people are.

That is why I always chuckle when I hear commentators say Putin is responsible for the mess that is Ukraine today. Yes .... he provides weapons and turns a blind eye to those who want to go there to fight for the cause, but bottom line the people in eastern Ukraine follow their own destiny, and if someone is willing to help them, they will grab that help and say thank you. That is why there is only one real path to end the war. President Zelensky will need to keep the promises that he made, and to turf out those who made the mess that is Ukraine today. He will need to compromise with the rebel leaders in the east, and to make peace with the country's sizable Russian-Ukrainian population. Failure to do so is not an option. Because failure will only depress his supporters, cripple his economic and anti-corruption agenda, and more importantly, perpetuate the war.

Is Ukraine President Zelensky About To Break His Campaign Promises?

Ukraine President Volodymr Zelensky, Reuters

Nicolai N. Petro, National Interest: Will Nationalism Poison Ukraine's New President?

Volodymr Zelensky’s election win was a result of Ukraine’s pent-up demand for normalcy with Russia. But now it looks like Ukraine's new president is succumbing to nationalist pressure.

Ever since Volodymyr Zelensky’s upset victory in April, Ukrainians have been wondering whether their newly elected president will take new approaches to resolve the conflict with Russia. His thumping victory over Petro Poroshenko, who tried to dismiss all of his opponents as puppets of Russian Vladimir Putin puppets, uncovered a strong, untapped desire to end the Russophobia that has been porminant with over the past five years. During that time, the Poroshenko and other senior government officials routinely referred to Ukrainians who wanted better relations with Russia as a “fifth column.”

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WNU Editor: The above post by Nicolai N. Petro is my must read post for today. Volodymr Zelensky won in a massive landslide on the promise of ending the war, getting rid of all the anti-Russian laws that were passed by former President Poroshenko and his parliament, and a return to normal relations with Russia. If he breaks these promises .... and it looks like he is .... the consequences will be the following. (1) Not only an intensification of the war in the eastern part of the country, but a conflict that will spread to the rest of eastern Ukraine and the southern part of the country where Ukrainian-Russians dominate. (2) In the past five years millions of young Ukrainians have left the country and/or planning to do so. Breaking these promises will only accelerate this migration. (3) If Ukraine hopes to achieve any level of prosperity, they must work with Russia. Persecuting and discriminating the Ukrainian-Russian population is not going to earn President Zelensky any friends in Russia, and definitely not in the Kremlin. Bottom line .... President Zelensky has 4-6 months to deliver on his promises. If he breaks them, the anger that will be directed at him and his government will be enormous.

Is Ukraine About To Begin A New Dialogue With Moscow?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

Adam Lammon, Business Insider: Will Ukraine Begin a New Dialogue With Moscow?

Volodymyr Zelensky was elected on a platform of compromise with Russia and public support seems to be firmly on his side, but other problems restricting his political latitude remain.

Is there a possibility for a fresh start in Ukraine that would push for a fight against corruption, reforms, and a dialogue with Moscow—all of which polls indicate are backed by the vast majority of voters who supported the candidacy of Volodymyr Zelensky for the presidency? A luncheon discussion at the Center for the National Interest on Thursday surveyed whether Zelensky will indeed be able to translate his electoral success into a breakthrough on negotiations with Russia. The panelists were Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation who has served on the Policy Planning staff during the Obama administration, Keith Darden, an associate professor at American University’s School of International Service, and Jacob Heilbrunn, the editor of the National Interest. The event was moderated by George Beebe, vice president and director of studies at the Center for the National Interest, and a former chief Russia analysis at the CIA as well as a White House aide during the George W. Bush administration.

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WNU Editor: Is a new period of Ukraine - Russian dialogue and diplomacy about to begin? Only after the July 21 parliamentary elections where it is expected that President Zelensky's party will form the majority, and where they will then follow through with their election promises. As to those election promises, I know Russian-Ukrainians and Russia itself are expecting the rescinding of the law that bans Russian in public and government institutions, as well reversing the anti-Russian measures that were enacted in the education system by the past adminstration. If this is not done, it will be a huge disappointment for many Ukrainians, and it will be interpreted as a signal by the Kremlin that Ukraine is not serious. I personally expect these promises will be respected, and it will happen in the fall. And after that .... the environment is then set for the diplomats to get involved, of which I know both sides are eager to pursue.

In Ukraine Those Who Live By The Sword Are Dying By It

Alexander Zakharchenko was killed in a bombing at a cafe in Donetsk. Reuters

Giovanni Pigni, Asia Times: In breakaway Ukraine, those who live by the sword are dying by it

Could an anonymous cull of Donbass’ violently charismatic separatists precede a peaceful solution?

Yet another leader in Ukraine’s breakaway Donbass region has met a kinetic end: The charismatic and hardline leader of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, was assassinated by an outdoor bomb blast on August 31.

Reaction to his death was predictably mixed. Thousands of supporters gathered in the city streets of Donetsk to honor the memory of a man they considered a “Russian Spring” folk hero. At the same time, in Kiev, Ukrainian nationalists celebrated the death of a wanted terrorist and pro-Russian separatist.

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WNU Editor:  The Ukraine rebel leadership may be getting killed all the time, but there are always many who are ready to step up and take their place.

What Is Next In Ukraine

A fighter jet flies above as Ukrainian soldiers sit on an armoured personnel carrier in Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine April 16, 2014. Ukrainian government forces and separatist pro-Russian militia staged rival shows of force in eastern Ukraine on Wednesday amid escalating rhetoric on the eve of crucial four-power talks in Geneva on the former Soviet country's future. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

Mark Munson, National Interest: Dark Days Ahead for Ukraine

While there are glimmers of optimism, Ukraine confronts a challenging future, both at home and in its near abroad.

During a panel at the Center for the National Interest on September 20, two experts sought to tamp down what they dubbed as undue optimism in the United States and Western Europe regarding Ukraine’s future. Keith Darden, an associate professor at American University’s School of International Service (SIS), set the tone with the observation that “Historically, optimism is bad for peace.” He said that the consensus among Western foreign policymakers is that Ukraine is on a positive trajectory, while Russia is on a negative one with time running against Moscow. The other panelist was Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

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WNU Editor: I am one of those who is not optimistic at all. To me, Ukraine is deeply divided, and we will be seeing these differences when Ukrainians go to the polls to elect a new President on March 31, 2019.  The current leadership .... starting with President Poroshenko .... will be gone (and deservedly so). As to what will replace it .... unfortunately more of the same. I have said this before, but to reverse this trend Ukraine needs a leader to first bring peace and reconciliation with its Russian minority. This can be done by making a serious peace agreement with the Russian rebels in the east by respecting their cultural rights, coupled with an agreement that Ukraine will not join NATO for X years. Most Ukrainians do want peace, and they do not want to join NATO. This is why it will be a  win-win for any political party that pursues it. The second thing that this new leader will need to do is to break the culture of corruption that exists in the country, starting by busting up the oligarchs and their huge companies. This will then be followed by implementing a legal system that respects contracts and due process. The third goal will be to jump-start the economy, and I believe this can be done by presenting a long term plan to encourage entrepreneurship and small to medium businesses via through tax and regulatory policy. It is only when I see a Ukraine government pursuing these goals .... that I will then feel confident that there is a positive future for Ukraine.

Nothing Has Changed In Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster meet with Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., June 20, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Benjamin Haddad, Daily Beast: The Ukraine War in the Time of Trump

The U.S. is sending all kinds of signals it supports Ukraine against Russia, but the regime’s corruption is almost as big a threat at Putin’s proxies.

KIEV — It was just four years ago that tens of thousands abandoned their homes to gather on Kiev’s Maidan Square to fight for a better life, closer to Europe. For many, it was a battleground for the future of liberal democracy. Walking through the Square today, everywhere you look there are pictures and plaques commemorating the 130 Ukrainians, many of them very young, who died here, leading to the departure of President Viktor Yanukovych.

The trade union building that served as the headquarters for opposition movements, on the square, is now covered with the giant letters “Freedom is our Religion” and drawings of broken chains. During the movement, it was buzzing with energy, hosting activists, refugees sleeping on the floors, and doctors treating victims of the repression. Amid lethal sniper fire, it was burned down by pro-regime forces during the crackdown on Feb. 19, 2014.

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WNU Editor: An admission in the above post that Ukraine President Poroshenko has only 14% support  in the polls?!?!?!  I am shocked .... I thought he only had 5%. Bottom line .... Ukraine is still poor, there is high unemployment, the economy is not growing, corruption is rampant, young people are leaving, and the war continues in the east.

Four Years After The Revolution Ukraine Is Still Suffering

Freedom Square in Kiev, Ukraine. The photograph compares 2009 to 2014

Nolan Peterson, The Daily Signal: 4 Years After the Revolution, Ukraine Still Battles Corruption and Russian Aggression

KYIV, Ukraine—Four years ago this week, central Kyiv resembled a quieted urban battlefield.

Ukraine’s capital city was, at that time, reeling from months of street protests and a revolution in which nearly 130 people died. The city’s central square, the Maidan, was left a charred ruin, still brimming with protester encampments and ad hoc defensive barricades.

Months earlier, in November 2013, protesters first took to the Maidan to oppose a last-minute decision by Ukraine’s then-President Viktor Yanukovych to ditch a trade deal with the European Union in favor of one with Russia.

Yet, when Yanukovych—a Kremlin lackey—launched a brutal police crackdown on the protesters, those pro-European street protests boiled over into a revolution calling for the then-president’s ouster.

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WNU Editor: It is hard to believe that four years has already passed. When I ask my friends and family in Ukraine that knowing what everyone knows now .... would they have supported the revolution (and many of my friends and family did .... including my cousin's daughter who was at the barricades) .... almost all of them say no. As for my cousin's daughter .... she now lives in Miami.

Should The U.S. Send Weapons To Ukraine?

YouTube

Rachel Ansley, RCD/The Atlantic Council: Should the United States Arm Ukraine?

While analysts agree that diplomacy is the ideal route to ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine, they disagree on whether the United States sending defensive weapons to Ukraine will achieve that end.

On September 22, the Atlantic Council, in collaboration with the Charles Koch Institute, hosted a debate between experts: Should the United States Arm Ukraine?

The divisive prospect of sending US weapons to Ukraine as further defense against Russian aggression in the Donbas could, according to those in favor, defend US interests on the world stage. Alternatively, countered those opposed to the idea, it could escalate the conflict in a manner detrimental to US national security.

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WNU Editor: Ukraine is already receiving weapons and supplies from other NATO states .... and as for the U.S., there are already U.S. military advisers in the country, upping this involvement by sending weapons would only escalate tensions and the war. I have said this more than once .... sending weapons to a country where a good portion of the population feel repressed and under assault is never going to insure peace or stability. In the case of Ukraine .... Russian Ukrainians definitely do feel under assault, and measure like this one are only fueling this separatist desire .... Ukraine's New Education Law Bans All Languages But Ukrainian (September 27, 2017). A political solution that respects cultural and linguistic regional rights is the pathway that should be encouraged .... unfortunately .... that is not happening in Ukraine.

Ukraine's Elites Keep On Ruining Their Country

Kenneth Courtis, The Globalist: Ukraine: Something Is Happening Here…

After using the Russian invasion diligently for plenty of international support, Ukraine’s elites aren’t holding up their side of the bargain: They keep ruining their country.

Ukraine’s President, 51-year old Petro Poroshenko – or Porky, as he is known to all Ukrainians – is at single digits in the polls. With elections scheduled for 2019 that cannot sit well with the oligarch-turned-president.

But in their assessment of him, Ukrainians are simply echoing the disdain that, all smooth-talking rhetoric aside, he has shown them. Remember that he promised to divest himself of certain assets – presumably acquired “legally” once he was elected.

What has happened is the opposite. His group has acquired more state assets at below rock-bottom prices. His firms are already lined up at the trough to gobble up all kinds of stuff in the coming wave of privatizations that the IMF has instructed the county to carry out.

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WNU Editor: Kenneth Courtis is spot on in his observations and analysis .... but as long-time readers of this blog know .... I have been saying the same thing for the past 2+ years.

The Front Lines In Ukraine Are Not Peaceful At All

Reuters

Seth J. Frantzman, National Interest: I Just Toured the Front Lines between Russia and Ukraine (and It's Not Frozen)

Up to two dozen are killed a month in the conflict.

Near the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka nine large industrial chimneys stretch into the distance. They belong to the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical plant, one of the largest Coke producers in Europe. Since the war in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Russian separatists began in the spring of 2014, this factory has been on the front line. Yet it has kept operating throughout the conflict, for locals a symbol of pride and necessity. The plant is also a key to keeping people employed and the heat flowing in winter in this part of Ukraine.

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WNU Editor: The above author of this post (Seth J. Frantzman) believes that this is a good thing ....

.... The last three years have brought clarity to Ukraine’s purpose by forcing people to choose sides and providing the state the chance to challenge Russian media, sever economic ties and roll back what some described as “Russification.”

Memo to Seth Frantzman .... forcing Russian-Ukrainians to abandon their language and culture and discriminating against them in government and in the workplace .... coupled with overthrowing the President that they fairly elected .... is what caused this war to break-out in the first place.

Ukrainian Government Policies Are Leading To A Further Fracturing Of The Country

Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko. Wikipedia

Nicolai N. Petro & Josh Cohen, National Interest: Ukraine's Government Is Failing to Unite Ukrainians

The current course of denigrating those deemed insufficiently Ukrainian will only lead to a fracturing of the country.

Last month Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko dramatically expanded his country’s sanctions against Russia by imposing multiyear sanctions on a number of IT companies. Once they are fully implemented these sanctions will impact some twenty-five million Ukrainians, or nearly every Ukrainian internet user.

These were but the latest in a litany of sanctions that began in 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea. First, restrictions were imposed on Russian television news programs, then artists, films and, most recently, books published in Russia. Most recently, Ukraine passed a law requiring 75 percent of television content to be in the Ukrainian language—leading one Western journalist to accuse Poroshenko of appearing to “equate being Ukrainian with speaking Ukrainian.”

Critics say the government is trying to create a virtual wall around Ukraine, in a futile attempt to keep out all Russian influence. They worry that once this is accomplished, Kiev will seeks to impose a nationalist agenda on the country by attacking as disloyal the cultural affinity that most eastern Ukrainians feel for Russia.

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WNU Editor: Currently .... President Poroshenko is polling in the teens. These new measures are going to guarantee his poll numbers going into the single digits. The next Ukraine Presidential election is slated in March, 2019 .... and everyone I know in Ukraine are just waiting for that day. In the meantime .... the anger that is building up in the territories in the east and in the south east .... and in major cities like Kharkiv where my aunt and her family lives .... I am genuinely worry that Ukraine may soon be entering into a wider conflict beyond Luhansk and Donetsk.

Ukraine’s Language Wars Are Starting. Real Wars To Follow

Thomas De Waal, Carnegie Europe: New Fighting in Ukraine’s Language War

If Kyiv draws new battle lines in the country’s language war, Moscow is ready to restart its side of this conflict.

"I have no desire to become a soldier in this war of words,” Ukraine’s best-known novelist Andrei Kurkov wrote in 2012. He was reacting to the furor over a law instituted by former president Viktor Yanukovych that elevated Russian to the status of a regional language in Ukraine.

Kurkov writes mainly in Russian but was a supporter of the Maidan protests of 2013 that overthrow Yanukovych and turned Ukraine towards Europe. His was a plea to keep language politics out of the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv.

Unfortunately that plea is unheard and Ukraine’s language wars are restarting. A bill requiring 75 percent of national television broadcasts to be in Ukrainian has just been passed by the Rada. It follows a very unpopular move by President Poroshenko to ban Russian-language social media websites, such as Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki.

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WNU Editor: In the eastern part of Ukraine .... Russian is the dominant language .... and it has been the case for centuries. But the Ukraine government has now gone all out to restrict and ban Russian, starting with President Poroshenko banning Russian-language social media websites, such as Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki. But this pales when compared to Kiev's restrictions on the use of the Russian language in the school systems. This alone has created an enormous amount of ill-will and resentment .... adding only more fuel to the separatist cause. If all of these additional anti-Russian measures are passed into law by the Ukraine government .... which I predict they will .... Russia will not have to restart its side of this conflict .... the Ukrainian-Russians will be doing it themselves.

Update: Ukraine and Russia have started a Twitter war .... Ukraine-Russia Twitter spat over origin of queen escalates to meme warfare (ABC News Online).

Will Ukraine Change?

President Petro Poroshenko with soldiers in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine, April 2017. Mikhail Palinchak/Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

Tim Judah, New York Review Of Books: Will Ukraine Ever Change?

Denis Voronenkov, a former member of the Russian parliament, was walking out of the Premier Palace Hotel in Kiev on March 23 when he was killed in a hail of bullets. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko immediately blamed the Russian state for his murder. Voronenkov, a former supporter of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine who was accused of corruption in Russia and then fled to Kiev last year, had been a controversial figure. After his defection, he was given Ukrainian citizenship, denounced Putin and his policies, and, perhaps crucially, testified against Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s former president, who had fled to Russia when he was driven from power during the Maidan revolution of 2014.

Russian officials denied involvement in Voronenkov’s death, but made clear they had little sympathy for a man they regarded as a traitor. He was just one more casualty of Ukraine’s revolution and its continuing war with Russia.

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WNU Editor: I have not posted anything on Ukraine for the past few weeks .... which is strange because I am almost always talking/Skyping with someone I know in that country almost every day. It is also true that nothing has changed. The corruption has actually gotten worse (unlike what the author of the above post is saying), the economy has stabilized (it cannot get any worse), the Army is becoming modernized (but most of these forces are not based on the front lines .... they are stationed  in the regions where  the Russian-Ukrainian population is the majority and separatist feelings are high), the war continues, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's poll numbers are in the low teens (if he was to run today, he will be wiped-out by anyone who goes against him), and while the EU has made it now possible for Ukrainians to travel to the EU visa free .... the end result of this will be millions of Ukrainians immigrating to the West as soon as they can scrap some money together to make their move. The above author mentions Crimea and that support for being now part of Russia is in decline. I do not see that .... many Crimeans blame Ukraine for the shutdown of electricity supplies .... and then there are the many anti-Russian language laws that Kiev has passed which for the Russian majority in Crimea is unacceptable. As to what is my prediction (and hope) for the future .... for Ukraine to progress forward there has to be an agreement that will give the separatist regions a great deal of authority to handle their affairs .... starting with language and culture. These same language rights must also be given to the other regions of Ukraine where Russian-Ukrainians are the majority. There also has to be a recognition that these regions are not comfortable with Kiev having all the power when it comes to money .... the regions must be given some financial say on what happens within their boundaries. Then there is Russia. Many Ukrainians may want to block any accommodation with Russia .... but many do not .... and among the Russian-Ukrainian community support for an open border with Russia is a must. Will this happen .... not with President Poroshenko in power. But Ukrainian voters are going to go back to the polls in 2019 .... and I know that there will be candidates who are willing to look at federalist solutions to solve the impasse in Ukraine .... as well as making the case for it. Otherwise .... Ukraine will not change .... and the status quo will just continue.

Are Ukraine's Leaders Giving Up On Reuniting The Country?

The Economist: Ukraine’s leaders may be giving up on reuniting the country

Reintegrating Donbas is starting to look like a Russian trap.

FROM her roadside stall in eastern Ukraine, Svetlana Tsymbal watches the cars creep past the Mayorsk checkpoint. This used to be a peaceful provincial highway. Now it is a border crossing at the front line of a conflict that has left some 10,000 people dead. Parents return home “to the other side” after visiting children. Pensioners cross to receive payments on Ukrainian-held territory. Traders lug supplies and sometimes contraband back and forth. The road is lined with mines.

It has been nearly three years since Russian-backed separatists seized chunks of eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Minsk agreements, signed in February 2015, envision Russia returning control over the border and withdrawing its troops, and Ukraine holding local elections and granting the occupied territories “special status”. A stretch of relative quiet in 2016 raised hopes of progress. But in late January, combat erupted around the industrial hub of Avdiivka. The fighting has slowed, but the outbreak showed how intractable the conflict has become. “How can we go back to the way things were?” asks Ms Tsymbal. “Blood has been spilled.”

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WNU Editor: When Ukraine President Poroshenko ran for President .... he ran on a platform to compromise and make peace with Ukraine's Russian populations in the east. Unfortunately .... when he was in power .... a different policy was implemented and we are where we are today. And while this war is now entering the third year .... there are many in Kiev who still want to end this war using the military .... regardless of the cost. As to what is my take .... the only hope for a unified Ukraine is to adopt a federal system (like Canada or Switzerland) .... and to respect Ukraine's Russian speaking citizens rights when it comes to their language, education, and culture. Compromise is necessary .... and it has to come from the Ukraine government first. But while this is my hope .... I also know that in the current environment it is not going to happen. The country is bitterly divided along language/culture/and sectarian lines .... and there are too many Ukrainian nationalists with too much power and say in the Kiev government who are going to make sure that such a peace does not take place. My prediction .... Ukraine' moderate leaders have given up on the idea of a unified Ukraine .... but the nationalists who have the power have not. As a result this war is going to grind on for the next few years until new leadership takes hold .... and that will not happen until the next Ukrainian Presidential election in 2019.

Kiev Wants A Military Solution To The War

Isaac Webb, Foreign Policy: Kiev Is Fueling the War in Eastern Ukraine, Too

A muted White House isn't just emboldening the Kremlin -- it's inciting the politics of war throughout Ukraine.

KIEV, Ukraine — Less than two weeks after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, full-blown war returned to eastern Ukraine.

Beginning Jan. 29, rockets rained down on residential and military positions along the front line, killing civilians and soldiers alike. One 60-year-old woman was killed in separatist shelling as she walked from her home to a nearby market; a 24-year-old medic was killed when a shell exploded next to the ambulance she was driving. The fighting decimated local water and electricity infrastructure, spawning a renewed humanitarian crisis in the region that could affect hundreds of thousands of people as temperatures dip below 0 degrees Fahrenheit.

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WNU Editor: Bottom line .... no one in Kiev wants peace. This is my must read post for today.

The Opportunity To End The War In Ukraine Is Receding

Ukrainian servicemen take part in a rehearsal for the Independence Day military parade, in the center of Kiev.Thomson Reuters

Startfor Analysis: Window of Opportunity Is Closing in Ukraine

Talks between the United States and Russia over the Ukrainian conflict seem more and more unlikely to make any meaningful headway as Barack Obama's last presidential term comes to a close. Cease-fire violations are a daily occurrence along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine — Kiev reported 30 made by pro-Russia separatists on Oct. 7 alone — and plans to withdraw troops and weaponry in certain locations have had mixed results. After an Oct. 5 meeting between U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Russian officials in Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said he had "no expectations of a breakthrough."

The two countries have a brief window of opportunity to reach an understanding, but it is rapidly closing. The end of the Obama administration will coincide with the European Union's decision over whether to extend sanctions against Russia, giving Moscow added impetus to reach an understanding with Washington sooner than later. A month ago, movement toward some sort of deal seemed possible as cease-fire agreements were struck in Syria and Ukraine. But in the end, neither held up. The Syrian accord has unraveled completely, and talks between the United States and Russia over the Middle Eastern conflict have been suspended. Meanwhile, fighting in Ukraine has flared up again, despite an initial period of relative peace.

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WNU Editor: The Ukraine conflict can only be resolved if Kiev gives the Russian-Ukrainians what they want .... a certain degree of autonomy on language, culture, and economics. Unfortunately .... the Ukraine government has shown zero interest to pursue such a policy, even though there is a growing desire among many Ukrainians to now end the war by giving the rebellious east what they want.

The Ukraine Government Is In Denial

Ukraine Parliament. Reuters / Andrew Kravchenko / Pool / Reuters

Askold Krushelnycky, Foreign Policy: Kiev in Denial

Ukraine’s leaders think their country is too important to fail. They're wrong.

Russia is at war with Ukraine — there is no concealing this basic fact. Yet despite the seriousness of the threat from the East, Moscow isn’t the worst enemy the Ukrainians face. Given the self-inflicted corruption that has infected every facet of business and government, the country’s worst enemy may be its own leaders.

Ukraine’s corruption was inherited from the dying Soviet Union and has persisted for two and a half decades. It has made the country into a brutal kleptocracy that hands power and wealth to a tiny and unassailable elite, impeding the development of a normal economy. It has warped society, ruining everything from the health care and education systems to law enforcement and the judiciary. This is a system where the drunken son of an oligarch can walk free if he happens to run over an ordinary citizen with his car.

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WNU Editor: Kudos to Askold Krushelnycky for writing this post .... I could not have done a better job. I have family and friends in Ukraine .... and on one side of my family I can honestly say that they are not oligarchs .... but they are close to it. And their views and altitudes towards the current situation in Ukraine .... especially how the West views them .... makes me drop my jaw. And even though other members of my family are furious at them .... they (like the rest of the establishment that runs Ukraine) are in complete denial. My prediction .... Ukraine fatigue is settling in .... which means that Western support will not be there forever .... doubly so if someone like Trump wins the Presidency. In the meantime .... the war ..... which is becoming deadlier with every passing day .... continues .... Russian Troop Buildup Along Ukraine Border Raises War Fears (VOA).

Trying To Stop Corruption In Ukraine

Ukraine is 7th in corruption perception by country, according to EY / Photo from www.ilovegreece.ru

Annette Langer, Spiegel Online: Laying Down the Gauntlet

Corruption can rot a state from the inside out. It destroys people's faith in government institutions and threatens societal stability. More than 1.3 trillion euros are lost every year to graft around the world. As part of its sustainable development goals, the UN has identified the battle against corruption as a key element in building peaceful and inclusive societies.

What, though, might such a battle look like? Who has the courage to lead it? And what are the daily obstacles? SPIEGEL ONLINE traveled to Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe, in the search for answers.

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WNU editor: It is going to take more than just hiring a few young adults, slapping them with a uniform, training them and paying them well .... to eliminate corruption in Ukraine. The problem is that corruption has become a part of the culture in Ukraine .... you just cannot escape it, and what worse is that many people have come to accept it.

One Middle-Class Family’s Struggle In Ukraine

Mackenzie Knowles-Coursin, Washington Post: Uprooted by conflict in Ukraine, one middle-class family’s isolating struggle

“Everything we have done, we have done for our children,” said Sasha Dobyri, sitting with his wife Marina at their cramped kitchen table. “They are the most important thing we have.”

“It’s been more than two years since Sasha, 41 and Marina, 38, gathered their two children, Kostya and Artyom, packed their car with the TV and some clothes and left home, joining the estimated 1.4 million people who have been displaced by Ukraine’s ongoing war in the east.

“We never guessed we would be where we are now,” said Sasha. “Two years ago I could not have predicted our community would fall apart.”

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WNU Editor: I cannot even begin to tell you how angry and bitter many Ukrainians are .... and while both sides blame the major powers .... Russia on one side, the U.S. and the West on the other .... the main reason why this conflict continues to fester and boil is the conflict between Ukrainians and Ukrainian-Russians. For there to be peace there has to be an accommodation by both sides .... Kiev must give the eastern part of the country autonomy over language and cultural affairs as well as a say on how they manage their economy/finances .... the rebels in the East must recognise the central authority of Kiev, and the fact that they are Ukrainian citizens. Unfortunately .... I do not see both sides bending, and with no talks in the future I am now predicting that this war is only going to fester with hit and run attacks, IED explosions, artillery exchanges, and sniper fire for the next few years .... and be a continuing sore point in Europe - Russian relations.

Who Wants To Die In Eastern Ukraine?

A boy sits on an armored personnel carrier as he poses for a picture during a parade in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, September 14, 2014. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

Alexander J. Motyl, World Affairs: Ukraine's Orange Blues. Dying for the Donbas?

Just about every day, soldiers die. Sometimes, it’s as many as three or four. Sometimes, it’s two or three. Usually, it’s only one.

Only one young life snuffed out—for what?

For the Russian-occupied Donbas enclave. That is to say, for nothing.

I can understand, intellectually, at least, dying for your family or friends, for your country or city or community, for democracy or peace or your nation.

But dying for a piece of crummy land populated by 3 million inhabitants, the vast majority of whom hate Ukraine and everything it stands for? That makes no sense.

Most Ukrainian policymakers and most Ukrainian people appear determined to win back the Donbas territory occupied by Vladimir Putin’s troops and proxies. At the same time, they appear to be equally determined to lead normal lives, as if the war—and make no mistake, it is a war—were taking place in some distant land.

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WNU Editor: I have mentioned more than once in this blog that the people in the Dobass region are  stubborn, hard headed, independent, fiercely pro-Russian, and impossible to subdue. When The Germans invaded in the Second World War .... this part of the Soviet Union was a hornets nest of partisan activity. The first strikes in the Soviet Union that eventually led to its downfall first started in the coal mines of the Donbas .... that even an army of KGB thugs could not suppress. And now this war .... sighhhh .... it took the Irish years to kick out the British .... I can say the same about this conflict. But all is not loss .... there is a political solution to this conflict .... give the people in the Donbas what they want .... autonomy. Unfortunately ....in Kiev this is the last thing that they want to do, and until its their own sons and daughters going to fight in this useless war .... there is going to be no accommodation from Kiev to reach the political settlement that this conflict so desperately needs.