Russia's President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Security Council. One European expert estimates that at least a third of Russia's diplomats work for Putin's intelligence agencies. Alexei Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin/Reuters
Michael Kofman, War On The Rocks: The Seven Deadly Sins Of Russia Analysis
One analyst's reflection on the common analytical sins and questionable assumptions that bedevil the field of Russia analysis.
As the clock counts down to the end of another tumultuous and difficult year of dealing with Russia, the natural instinct is to look back on the battles and surprises of 2015 with an eye to making predictions for the coming year. There is material aplenty: the battle of Debaltseve, Moscow’s operations in Syria, a crisis with Turkey that still burns bright. A new year offers new opportunities for prognostication: Where will Russia strike next? What is Putin thinking? What are the likely flashpoints of 2016? Instead of this traditional exercise, Russia experts should reflect on a year of discussions, briefings, round tables, merciless PowerPoint decks about hybrid war, and occasional spats in the virtual pages of outlets like War on the Rocks. What are the nagging questions, questionable assumptions, and unknowns that beset the analytical and policymaking community?
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WNU Editor: I cannot count the number of times I have read commentaries like this one. But the funny thing is that I have never had any trouble in analysing Russian political trends and priorities .... I guess "growing up Russian" has its advantages. I may be off on the little things .... or wrong on the timing .... but Russian politics (both internal and foreign) is easy to understand. The advantage is that the same guys have been running the country for years ... and they never change their behaviour or focus. Now U.S. Presidential politics .... that's complicated. U.S. Presidents come and go as well as their staff .... and who knows what direction the U.S. will be taking after the next election cycle. And while the elites and their corporate allies do have a lock on the political process .... the are also usually at war with themselves .... and they also come and go.
1 comment:
US Intel, State and the Pentagon used to be staffed with "Russian" Experts,
Now, try to find a so-called "Russian Expert" eho speaks, reads and writes Russian.
Condoleeza Rice was once an early prototype of the current crop of so-called "Russian Experts".
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