Russia Is Not In Decline

Reuters 

Robert D. Kaplan, National Interest: Why Russia Is the Problem From Hell 

America must try to move Russia away from China and improve relations while maintaining deterrence. 

In 1812, his army exhausted and overwhelmed by the Russian steppe, and watching Muscovites desert and burn their city rather than see it handed to his troops, Napoleon was reported to exclaim in desperation about the Russians: “What men they are! They are Scythians!” The reference was to the nomadic horsemen of antiquity whom no one could conquer, reason with, or pressure in any way. Indeed, by the turn of the twentieth-century, the historian Henry Adams observed that the intractable Russia problem had always been the key to modern Europe and that, therefore, “The last and highest triumph of history would…be the bringing of Russia into the Atlantic combine.” 

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WNU Editor: I lost count a long time ago on the many "experts" who said that Russia was in decline, its population was imploding, its economy was in a shambles, and its people were in revolt. The above post gives a good summary on why the "experts" are wrong, and why the Biden administration policy and approach towards Russia is going to fail and not serve the long term strategic and security needs of the U.S..

Could Putin Launch Another Invasion?

Russian military vehicles seen on the road towards its military outposts in Kamisli in Kamisli, Syria on 14 September 2020 [Samer Uveyd / Anadolu Agency] 

Politico: Could Putin Launch Another Invasion? 

The same factors that led up to his incursion into Ukraine are in place again, including domestic protests, a struggling economy and a desire for glory. 

A trained KGB agent, Vladimir Putin knows how to hide his feelings, but in 2013, after former President Barack Obama described him looking like “the bored kid in the back of the classroom,” Putin let it be known that he was furious. And rightly so: kids in the back of the room are rarely ambitious. Putin, from day one of his rule 21 years ago, has had big, ambitious plans for himself and for Russia. 

A far greater Soviet patriot than a Russian one, one of his first priorities when he became president in 2000 was to recover state ownership or control of the key political and economic assets lost in the Soviet Union’s demise: major industries, courts, media, national politics. Then, in his third and fourth presidencies, he turned his ambition to geopolitics: to incursions into Ukraine and Crimea, an alliance with Syria, and various assaults on Western democracies with what the KGB used to call “active measures” recast as cyberattacks. 

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WNU Editor: Putin could easily launch another invasion. The proper question to ask is .... would he? 

I do not see that happening. The Kremlin's focus is on the pandemic and the economy.

But it is true that the conflict and war is escalating in Ukraine (expect a blog post on that tomorrow). And if there is a place that Putin would set his eyes on to get involved, it will be on that conflict.

Why It Is Not A Good Idea To Pick A Fight With Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting of the Federal Security Service Board in Moscow on February 24. Photo: AFP / Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik 

Pepe Escobar, Asia Times: Putin, crusaders and barbarians 

Civilized NATO might want to rethink picking a fight with the lateral heirs of the Great Khan 

Moscow is painfully aware that the US/NATO “strategy” of containment of Russia is already reaching fever pitch. Again. This past Wednesday, at a very important meeting with the Federal Security Service board, President Putin laid it all out in stark terms: 

 We are up against the so-called policy of containing Russia. This is not about competition, which is a natural thing for international relations. This is about a consistent and quite aggressive policy aimed at disrupting our development, slowing it down, creating problems along the outer perimeter, triggering domestic instability, undermining the values that unite Russian society, and ultimately to weaken Russia and put it under external control, just the way we are witnessing it transpire in some countries in the post-Soviet space. 

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WNU Editor: If you want to understand why it is not a good idea for anyone to pick a fight with Russia, the above commentary and analysis gives you the reason why.

How Are Russians Coping With The Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic?

Alexander Ryumin / TASS

Ilya Klishin, Moscow Times: Buckwheat and the Coronavirus: How Russians Cope With the End of the World

Although Putin stressed in his speech that there was no need to waste money stocking up on food, throngs of anxious Muscovites continued ravaging supermarkets, snatching up astronomical quantities of toilet paper and, inexplicably, buckwheat.

On March 17, President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation for the first time about the coronavirus. In short, he said everything was under control. He added that, “like in a large, friendly family” the Russian people would overcome all difficulties with the aid of discipline.

His words had no effect on shoppers, who stripped Moscow supermarkets of supplies. Official data puts the number of infected people at over 100, while posts are multiplying on social networks that put the figure far higher and report that people with symptoms have been sent home to “drink tea” without ever having been tested for the virus.

Muscovites are growing increasingly frustrated over reports — such as one that appeared in Vedomosti newspaper — that officials will soon impose a curfew, close the metro and ban travel in and out of the city. Meanwhile, Russia’s provinces remain calm and unruffled, seemingly immune to social distancing and quarantine. But when grandparents in the countryside invite their grandkids in the capital to wait out the coronavirus with them, the young people refuse, preferring to “tough it out” with all the conveniences.

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WNU Editor: Russians have seen worse, and in regards to the Covid-19 Coronavirus pandemic, they are expecting rough and difficult times. That is why I am not surprised to hear of panic buying in Russia. Everyone is stockpiling what they can, because they see the storm coming. But I also know that during these times people are banding together, because deep inside every Russian they know that in a crisis being unified is the best way to survive.

Speaking of hard times. Earlier today I had a good talk with my cousins and their kids in Moscow. The kids now run the family business (real estate), and they are nervous on what to do next. My advice to them was simple. The key is to remain calm, keep self control, do not panic, be safe and healthy, stay happy, stay positive, be active, do all the right things, and stay productive. This is just another episode in life where the times are difficult and tough, but in the end this will all pass, and by doing all the right things today will in the future bring rewards and contacts that you never thought was possible.

As to the above Moscow Times focus on buckwheat (its called kasha in Russian), it is true, it is a staple that every Russian must have during rough times. I should now, I have 8 packages of the stuff in my chalet right now (the picture below is my favourite brand).

Do Russians Care What President Putin Does Next?

Several cities have seen protests and this banner warns of a "constitutional coup" but not all Russians are so concerned

Sarah Rainsford, BBC: Putin's Russia: Do Russians care what president does next?

Two weeks after Vladimir Putin announced a radical overhaul of the constitution, loyal officials in Moscow have been moving at lighting speed to implement his changes.

Deputies in parliament have already passed the amendments in a first reading even as protesters insist the move is a smokescreen to allow Mr Putin to retain influence, or even power, beyond 2024, when he is due to step down as president.

But as analysts argue over his real intentions, just a short drive from the capital many people are either unaware of what's happening or indifferent.

At the entrance to Pereslavl-Zalessky, there's a giant Soviet hammer and sickle by the side of the road that it seems no-one ever bothered to remove.

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WNU Editor: The priority for most Russians is to make money and to have a better life. It does not mean that they are unaware on what is happening, it only means that for now their focus is elsewhere.

Are Russia's Regions In Revolt?

Janusz Bugajski, The Hill: Russia's regions are in revolt

While Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrates 20 years in the Kremlin and poses as a powerful world leader, his Russian Federation is showing increasing signs of fracture. Although a Ukraine-type revolution in Moscow to overthrow a corrupt authoritarian regime seems unlikely, a revolt of Russia’s diverse regions against a despised central government is gathering momentum.

Winston Churchill’s memorable insight about Russia at the outset of World War II – that its actions were “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" – needs updating. Putin’s Russia is a declining state, camouflaged in external aggression to disguise its internal fragility.

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WNU Editor: For as long as I can remember Russia's diverse regions have always been unhappy with Moscow. They love their independence, and in places like the Far East they like to handle local issues with local solutions. But they are not in revolt, and I certainly do not see the momentum that the above commentator believes in. And as for the economy, the stagnation that the above author believes is happening is certainly not supported by the facts .... Russia's Economy Is Booming (December 27, 2019).

What Is More Important To Russian President Putin: Relations With Saudi Arabia Or Iran?

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a welcome ceremony with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud at the Saudi Royal palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Photo: AFP/Aleksey Nikolskyi/Sputnik

Stephen Bryen, Asia Times: What is more important to Putin: Saudi or Iran?

The wild card is not Russia or Saudi Arabia, but the US, which has lost a lot of influence and credibility in the region

Russian President Vladimir Putin has just wrapped up an important visit to Saudi Arabia.

From the immediate Russian and Saudi point of view, the visit was fruitful, yielding 21 important agreements and undertakings, and getting support for significant Saudi investments in Russia, including investments by the Saudi Arabian Public Fund of US$10 billion for joint foreign direct investment projects in Russia.

Nothing was said about weapons sales, but there can be little doubt that Putin raised the issue privately with the Saudi leadership.

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WNU Editor: Iran is a tinderbox. It has always has been. Saudi Arabia also has problems, but nowhere near what Iran has. Looking long term. Saudi Arabia is far more important to Russia's future than Iran, and that was the signal that President Putin was sending with his message to Riyadh.

The Kremlin Gets Ready For The Next Crisis

Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin/Sputnik via Reuters

CNN: Putin builds war chest as Kremlin digs in for the next crisis

In the latest display of deepening cracks in the West's formerly unified economic campaign against Russia, France's Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told reporters Monday that "the time is right" for reconciliation in EU-Moscow relations.

The latest French overture comes as US lawmakers returned to work this week and at least two sanctions bills against Russia are making their way through Congress.

But policymakers and pundits question whether further unilateral sanctions are an effective response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's adventurism, amid concerns that they could also damage relationships with American trading partners and allies.

The US and its allies first issued a package of economic sanctions in 2014, intended to punish Russia for annexing Crimea and supporting separatist militias in eastern Ukraine.

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WNU Editor: Russia is definitely well positioned to weather the next economic/financial/political storm ....

.... Since 2014, Russia has increased foreign currency reserves to an eye-popping $500 billion (the fourth highest in the world), paid off its foreign debt, "floated" (or in other words devalued) the Russian ruble to boost the competitiveness of Russian exports, "de-dollarized" holdings to insulate Russia from the US financial system, and balanced the state's expenditures and revenues.

Update: The Kremlin is also a big winner from yesterday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil fields .... What the attacks on Saudi Aramco mean for oil prices (CNN).

Will Russia's Opposition Protests Succeed?

Vitali Shkliarov, Foreign Policy Research Institute: Russia's Opposition Protests: On the Road from Nowhere to Nowhere

The recent Moscow protests have been seen as yet another turning point in anti-Putin oppositional politics. Nearly every individual who lives in the post-Soviet space can’t help but feel a personal connection to this story. Every new issue, every argument or disagreement in the Russian capital catches the attention of almost everyone in the former Soviet bloc countries who still feel deeply connected to Mother Russia. This has a lot to do with the “postcolonial” interest of satellite states in what is happening in the former metropolis and with the fact that every small victory in Moscow seems like another step toward stabilization in the region and democracy in Russia. But, in this case, is it really? Do the recent opposition protests in Russia signal a real change is coming? Or is it just more of the same false hope concealing the fact that pro-democracy efforts in Russia are really just a road to nowhere?

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WNU Editor: One of the best analysis that I have read on Russia's opposition movement. A must read for Russian watchers. As to what is my take on the current wave of protests and the opposition movement. They will not succeed. The Kremlin and its allies are employing the same tactics that Mugabe employed when he ruled Zimbabwe. Keep the opposition off the ballot. Intimidate the leadership. Employ force when it gets out of hand.

How To Make Russia Great Again

Reuters

Boris Mezhuev, National Interest: How to Make Russia Great Again

The Putin administration must change its perspective on regional self-governance.

In 2012 Russian president Vladimir Putin was confronted by mass protests in Moscow and was able to more or less legitimately win the presidential elections and move his protégé and predecessor Dmitri Medvedev to the chair of prime minister. Today, as a fresh round of protests takes place over upcoming Moscow municipal elections, however, Russia is experiencing a more profound and protracted crisis. It is time for Russia to reinvent itself as a patriotic nation through local self-governance.

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WNU Editor: The above author is onto something. Russia has a long history of power being centralized in the Kremlin, and IMHO it has not served the country well. Many cities and regions in the Russian Federation are now suffering because their needs are not being addressed, and this in turn is causing dissension and protests. Unfortunately, I do not see Putin or his successor pushing this decentralization agenda. They are still wrapped around with the idea that Russia can only stay strong and protected if the Kremlin continues to run the show. But change is coming. I just do not know when.

Is Russia Slowly Imploding?

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on agriculture in Rostov region, Russia, September 24, 2015. REUTERS/ALEXEI NIKOLSKY/RIA NOVOSTI/KREMLIN

Peter Eltsov, Politico: The Best Way to Deal With Russia: Wait for It to Implode

Over the past decade, the Russia threat has loomed larger and larger in the minds of U.S. foreign-policy experts and officials, but the fear has especially grown in the wake of the Russian government’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election. “It wasn’t a single attempt. They’re doing it as we sit here,” former special counsel Robert Mueller said of Russia’s election interference efforts during his recent hearing on Capitol Hill. “And they expect to do it during the next campaign.” “We are doing things at a scale that we never contemplated a few years ago,” one intelligence official told the New York Times in mid-June about stepped-up attacks on Russia’s power grid in response to Moscow’s hacking and disinformation campaigns.

But what if the biggest threat to Russia isn’t the United States, or any other foreign government for that matter, but Russia itself?

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WNU Editor: For as long as I can remember there has always been separatist tendencies in some of Russia's regions. But the overwhelming majority within Russia favour the federation, and I do not see that changing even when Russian President Putin is gone. Russia imploding? Not going to happen.

Has The Kremlin Lost Touch On What Russia Wants?

Miodrag Soric, DW: The Kremlin fears its own people

Russian police reacted with force and arrested more than 1,000 people during opposition protests in Moscow. As the nervousness of Russia's rulers increases, so does the courage of its opposition, writes Mirodrag Soric.

Law enforcement officers clash with protesters during a rally in Moscow (Reuters/M. Shemetov)

Victories give you strength. And during the clashes between state forces and the opposition in Moscow, it's the latter which emerged as the moral victors.

Who, after all, could possibly defend the actions of a police officer taking a baton to a woman already beaten to the ground simply because she dared to voice her desire for free and democratic elections?

Who on earth would applaud secret service operatives carting away youths who they had beaten bloody, because they exercised their right to demonstrate?

Who could take the side of masked state operatives setting their viciously trained dogs upon protesters?

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WNU Editor: All of these protests are being primarily driven by people under the age of 40. And while concerns over democracy and freedom of speech are high on the list for the protesters, much of these protests are being driven by economic fears and frustration. The life of an average Russian today is like this: (1) Everyone is working, but to have a better life everyone needs to take on a second job and/or start a small business. The economy is doing well because the official stats do not incorporate the growth of small businesses, but you have to put 70 - 80 hours a week to do well. (2) Sanctions have resulted in the absence of many cheap western goods. This has resulted in a spike in inflation as more expensive goods fill this void. Inflation is something that no Russian likes to see. (3) Housing in the cities have become incredibly expensive. My cousin from Moscow is visiting me this week, and he is giving me a heads-up on how expensive housing and land has become in Moscow and St-Petersburg. To say that my mouth dropped when I learned all of this is an understatement. (4) Corruption is not as bad as it was during the Soviet days, but it is still bad among senior levels in government. And while the older generation always treated corruption as a away of life, the younger generation have no tolerance for this. (5) The Kremlin's move to regulate and limit the internet is producing a backlash among the under 30 crowd. This generation loves being wired to the world, and I know from my cousins kids they are 100% angry about this.

My prediction for the future. The Kremlin and President Putin have lost touch on what the people want in the major cities. I think this is because Russian President Putin is slowly withdrawing from the day to day activities of running the state, especially on domestic issues. By the looks of it and from what people are telling me, he is committed to retiring after the end of this term. What this means is that others who want his job are now positioning themselves to place their allies and supporters in positions of power, and they are exercising themselves in ways that are rankling many Russians. This weekends brutal crackdown on protesters is a harbinger of what is to come, and I will not be surprised if it will gets worse before President Putin officially retires.

Is Change Slowly Coming To Russia?

The approval rating of Russian President Vladimir Putin has slumped to 66 percent and that of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to 36 percent [File: Reuters/Evgenia Novozhenina]

Leonid Ragozin, Al Jazeera: Change is coming to Russia, but very slowly

Putin is losing popularity, but why has the opposition failed to gain much ground?

In 2014-2015, the occupation of Crimea sent Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings soaring to as much as 86 percent and kept them high for a few years. Over the past few months, however, his popularity has steadily declined and reached 66 percent - roughly as much as it was back in 2012-2013, when he was facing mass protests.

This trend is related to the decline in people's real incomes after Russia's recent economic crisis. One event, in particular, contributed greatly to Putin's rising unpopularity: the 2018 decision to raise the retirement age.

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WNU Editor: I grew up in the Soviet Union, so my perspective is very different to those who are 30 years younger than me. To me .... Russia today is not the Russia of 30 years ago. Change has been drastic and massive. But to those who are 30 years or younger .... change has been slow and disappointing.

How The Kremlin Sees The Rest Of The World

President Vladimir Putin seen while surveying the Russia and Belarus Union State armed forces activities at the main stage of the joint strategic exercises "Zapad-2017" on the Luzhsky range, September 18, 2017. © Sputnik

Charles Grant, New Statesman: How the Kremlin sees the rest of the world

Russian analysts reckon the US will be less focused on intervening around the world and will be more nationalist, mercantilist and interest-focused.

Thomas Hobbes described the life of a man as “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short”. The Kremlin’s view of the world is dark and Hobbesian. But on a recent visit to Moscow, I was struck by the confidence of influential Russians in their country’s ability to thrive in such a world.

Approval ratings for Vladimir Putin have fallen to just above 60 per cent, their lowest level since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014, but he is unchallenged domestically. Everyone expects the president to stay in charge at least until his current term ends in 2024, and probably for longer. The economy, though still dependent on natural resource exports and unable to grow at more than 1.5 per cent a year, continues to muddle along.

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WNU Editor: My must read for today.

Putin Is Not A Puppet Master

Ivan Golunov speaks with the media in Moscow after his release from jail.Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters

The Atlantic: A Russian Journalist’s Arrest Counters the Image of Putin the Puppet Master

Abroad, Putin is perceived as the master orchestrator of all of Russia’s actions. But his hold on the state’s security services is more limited.

MOSCOW—In the days following the arrest of Ivan Golunov, an investigative journalist detained on drug charges, dozens of reporters and public figures began lining up—quite literally—to take part in a peculiarly Russian form of protest: the “single picket.”

Demonstrations here require an official permit, and with authorities often loath to sanction critical rallies, protesters, in an effort to evade the requirement, will stand alone, holding up a banner or placard while a line of people will form nearby, ready to step in and offer relief. No two protesters can stand within 50 meters of each other.

And so, outside police headquarters in the center of the Russian capital, three separate “single pickets” were taking place at once, all to draw attention to what the authorities later admitted was the wrongful arrest of a respected journalist, one which drew condemnation from across Russian media, as well as around the world. After holding Golunov for several days, authorities finally dropped the charges against him today, with the interior minister announcing that he would seek to sack two senior police officers over the arrest, an apparent admission that it had been a botched operation.

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WNU Editor: When I first heard of the arrest of Ivan Golunov, I said to myself that this arrest .... happening with Chinese President Xi in Russia on a state visit and the St. Petersburg economic forum happening at the same time .... was (as a PR move) beyond stupid. But this is how Russia is ruled today. President Putin does have power, but he cannot be everywhere. Local politics are always at play, and I predict even more so as the date for Putin's "retirement" in a few years approaches.

Why Russian Media Is Struggling In Dealing With HBO's Chernobyl

Chernobyl / HBO

Ilya Shepelin, Moscow Times: Putin’s Media Struggle to Deal With HBO’s Chernobyl

The fact that an American, not a Russian, TV channel told the story about our own heroes is a source of shame for pro-Kremlin media.

It seems every major Russian media outlet had to chime in about the “Chernobyl” TV series by HBO. Although the foreign program airs only online to paying viewers, the show has become something of a national sensation in Russia where the pro-Kremlin media have launched a mini-crusade against it.

Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP), Russia’s most popular newspaper, raised suspicions that competitors of state-atomic center Rosatom were using the series to tarnish this country’s image as a nuclear power.

Argumenty i Fakty, a newspaper popular among the elderly, dismissed the show as “a caricature and not the truth.”

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WNU Editor: Analysis is true ....

.... The fact that an American, not a Russian, TV channel tells us about our own heroes is a source of shame that the pro-Kremlin media apparently cannot live down. And this is the real reason they find fault with HBO’s “Chernobyl” series.

Will Russia Stay Neutral If U.S. And Iran Go To War?

© Sputnik / Dmitriy Vinogradov

Pyotr Kortunov and Abdolrasool Divsallar, Moscow Times: Russia Unlikely to Stay Neutral if U.S. and Iran Go to War

As U.S. tensions with Iran are changing course toward a possible military confrontation, the Russian factor is becoming more crucial.

Russia's Middle East policy is marked with balancing acts that secure the country's role as an agile and effective balancing power. The fall of the Islamic Republic could undermine Moscow's capacity for balancing in the Middle Eastern region. It has the potential to cripple Russia's policy in Syria by giving more freedom of action to U.S.-allied groups, further weakening the recovering Assad government.

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WNU Editor: Russia will not get directly involved. What they will do is sell weapons and intelligence to Iran .... unless the U.S. gives a better offer.

Is Russia's Middle Class Shrinking?

Sergei Vedyashkin / Moskva News Agency

Moscow Times: Who Is Mr. Ivanov: Why Russia’s Middle Class Is Shrinking

The struggling middle class has become critically dependent on the government.

In the five years since 2014, the share of those in Russia who consider themselves middle class has shrunk from 60 percent to 47 percent. This is according to a study commissioned by the investment arm of Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, on the “Ivanov index,” a measure of consumer confidence. “Ivanov,” a common Russian last name, is used to represent a typical middle-class person in Russia.

People who have savings, travel abroad, and frequent restaurants usually think of themselves as middle class, Yaroslav Lissovolik, head of the analytics department at Sberbank CIB, told the newspaper Vedomosti. Those who can only afford basic and immediate necessities place themselves below the imaginary boundary between economic classes; their share grew from 35 percent five years ago to 48 percent today. The fastest the self-identified middle class shrank was between 2015 and 2017, Lissovolik said.

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WNU Editor: This is a tough one for me. In Russia I consider myself upper-class, even during Soviet times. But if I was to take what my personal economic status in the 1980s and transport it to the present, I would be viewed as destitute. That is how much Russia has changed in 30 years, and why it is difficult to use metrics such as consumer confidence and personal opinion. From my vantage point the Russian middle class is growing and enjoying a life that has never been experienced in Russia throughout its history. But for those who are in the 20 - 40 age bracket, they see themselves as a class that is declining, and not meeting their expectations. They are frustrated, and they want more. This is what the next leader of Russia is going to face, and it is going to be hard to meet their expectations.

I see this same trend line in China. When I was working in China in the 1980s the political and economic leadership lived in simple homes, were driven around in Toyota vans, and their offices were as austere as you can imagine. And as for the average Chinese citizen, simplicity and sparse are the words that come to mind. Today .... Oh my God .... the leadership live in a manner that past Chinese emperors would be jealous of, and for the 400,000,000 who make up the Middle Class in China (and growing), they are living in a manner that the leadership could only dream about 30 years ago. But the Chinese Middle Class are not happy, which I will explain in a later post.

Is Russia Contemplating Seizing Territory From Finland Or Sweden?

Mikheil Saakashvili, Foreign Policy: Russia’s Next Land Grab Won’t Be in an Ex-Soviet State. It Will Be in Europe.

First he came for Georgia, then for Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s next target is likely to be a non-NATO nation in the EU.

Not many observers would consider the world’s coldest shipping lane a geopolitical hotspot. But that may be about to change. Last week, reports emerged that a new Kremlin policy will require all international naval ships to give Russia 45 days’ notice before entering the Northern Sea Route, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans via the Arctic waters north of Siberia. Every vessel on the route, where Russia has invested heavily in sophisticated military infrastructure, will also be required to have a Russian maritime pilot on board. Ships found in violation of these restrictions may be forcibly halted, detained, or—in unspecified “extreme” circumstances—“eliminated.”

The Kremlin’s latest threat has gone largely unnoticed, perhaps because it’s no surprise. Russian officials justify the new naval restrictions with a familiar explanation, claiming that “the more active naval operations in the Arctic of various foreign countries” require such a response.

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WNU Editor: The above author is Mikheil Saakashvili, the former President of Georgia who is now wanted in his former country after being convicted of a number of crimes. His hostility towards Russia is also well known. But as to his theory that the next countries that Russia will "move against" are Finland or Sweden, I am deeply skeptical. There is no border dispute that I am aware of between Finland and Russia, and as for Russia invading and seizing the Swedish island of Gotland, that is wild speculation.

Hat tip to Robert for the above link.

Russia Is Defeating Sanctions

Reuters

Judy Twigg, National Interest: Russia Is Winning the Sanctions Game

These sanctions were supposed to punish Moscow's elite, but instead they've spurred economic development and patriotism.

The current conversation about Russia sanctions centers around targeting and scope. Are we punishing the people whose behavior we most want to change? Is there pain, well inflicted, on those individuals responsible for creating chaos in Ukraine and Crimea, for reckless attacks on Sergei Skripal and others, and for wanton interference in Western elections? Can we hurt Russian elites in a way that Putin will notice? Have we done enough?

In at least one sector, though, the sanctions are a textbook case of unintended consequences: they’ve put Russian farmers in the best shape they’ve ever been. Countersanctions aimed at imported Western food products—put into effect just days after the initial sanctions in the summer of 2014—initially sent Russian consumers into a tailspin, hungry from a lack of immediate alternatives to tasty European cheeses and processed foods. But palates adjusted quickly, and the import substitution effects boosted Russia, by 2016, to the position of top wheat exporter in the world. As the United States hemorrhages global agro-market share courtesy of Trump-era tariffs and trade wars, Russia is actively and aggressively filling the gap.

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WNU Editor: I concur with the above analysis. I go back to Russia 2 or 3 times a year, and I do not see an economy in decline or economic turmoil. Everyone is working. Starting a small private enterprise is now the cultural norm. There are building cranes everywhere in Moscow. And food is readily available and cheap. I should also add that the meats and poultry are better quality (they do not use hormones and other chemicals in their feed). I do know that sanctions will be lifted one day, but the Kremlin is going to protect critical industries .... especially the agribusiness. And I do not see the mentality of buying Russian changing anytime soon.