Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- April 19, 2017

Josh Rogin, Washington Post: Pence: The United States is not seeking negotiations with North Korea

TOKYO – When Vice President Pence spoke at the Korean demilitarized zone on Monday, he said that the United States sought to solve the North Korean crisis “through peaceable means and negotiations,” after increasing pressure on the Pyongyang regime. But in an interview with me on Wednesday afternoon, he adopted a harder line: The Trump administration, he said, demands that North Korea abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programs without any promise of direct negotiations with the United States.

This change in message, if translated into a firm policy of not negotiating with North Korea, could have huge implications. If the United States is unwilling to negotiate with North Korea, and the regime is unwilling to abandon its nuclear and missile programs based on pressure alone, the prospect of the United States using military action to prevent North Korea from developing the capability to strike the continental United States becomes more likely. Also, the Trump administration could open a gap with its key allies as well as China, who all anticipate an eventual return to something akin to the previous multilateral negotiations with Pyongyang.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- April 19, 2017

Donald Trump Can't Count On China To Keep North Korea In Check -- Kevin Grey, Fortune

Guns, gold and gas. What UN sanctions target North Korea? -- DW

The 1994 North Korea Crisis: Military Force a Bad Idea Then (and a Worse One Now) -- Ted Galen Carpenter, National Interest

North Korea and mounting tensions: The view from Seoul -- Steven Borowiec, Al Jazeera

The North Korean military threat to America and its allies, explained -- Alex Ward, VOX

North Korea and Mar-a-Lago: Did It Make Any Difference? -- Alan D. Romberg, 38 North

Indonesia Stemming the Islamic State Tide in Southeast Asia -- Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal

Still Missing a Strategy After 16 Years in Afghanistan -- Daniel DePetris, RCD

Will Jordan confront IS in southern Syria? -- Osama Al Sharif, Al-Monitor

How Erdogan should use his new power in Turkey -- Kiran Nazish, Reuters

Erdoğan’s power grab follows authoritarian script -- Melik Kalan, Politico

Why Somali piracy is staging a comeback -- The Economist

Planning for President Le Pen -- Mark Leonard, Project Syndicate

Anti-German, soft on Putin – Mélenchon is no saviour of the left -- Natalie Nougayrède, The Guardian

As Trump plays the global strongman, what happened to 'America first'? -- David Smith, The Guardian