Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 29, 2020

The Nagorno-Karabakh region has been running its own affairs with support from Armenia.(ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser)

ABC News Online: Armenia and Azerbaijan have spent years fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh. What's behind the latest fatal clash?

A new and dangerous eruption of a decades-old conflict has broken out between Azerbaijan and its ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Scores are dead but the figures are disputed.

Hundreds have been injured and each side has blamed the other for instigating the deadly clashes as the shelling continued.

There have been many flare-ups between the former Soviet republics, which sit near strategic oil and gas pipelines, and are split along religious and ethnic lines.

"This is a life and death war," Nagorno-Karabakh leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, said.

So where exactly is the fighting, who is involved, why has violence again returned to the region and can it be stopped?

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 29, 2020

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, Explained -- Zia Weise et al, Politico EU

Armenia and Azerbaijan's thawing of 'frozen conflict' shows past is never far away in war of identity -- Stan Grant, ABC News Online

Explained: Why Azerbaijan and Armenia are Clashing Over Nagorno-Karabakh -- Oleg Burunov, sputnik

Is Turkey a brother in arms or just extending its footprint into Nagorno-Karabakh? -- Leela Jacinto, France 24

Beijing ditches median line as tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait -- Mark Harrison, The Strategist

The Façade of Chinese Foreign Policy Coherence -- Strategy Bride

Assessing How Countries Can Compete with Chinese Hybrid Tactics Below the Threshold of Armed Conflict. -- William Freer, RCD

Zhenhua data leak exposes China's new 'hybrid warfare' -- Wesley Rahn, DW

Is Putin's war in Syria against America a miscalculation? -- Konstantin Eggert, DW

Is the Pentagon's Buildup in Northeast Syria a Message to Russia, Turkey, Damascus, or Someone Else? -- Ekaterina Blinova, Sputnik

One million coronavirus deaths: how did we get here? -- The Guardian

A new test from the WHO could be a game changer in the fight against Covid -- Charlotte Summers, The Guardian

Covid-19: Milestones of the global pandemic -- BBC

Is the internet falling apart? -- Roger Cochetti, The Hill

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 28, 2020

Lucian Kim, NPR: Fighting Between Armenia And Azerbaijan Threatens To Spiral Into Full-Blown War

A simmering conflict on Russia's volatile southern border is threatening to escalate into an all-out war, with the potential of drawing in NATO ally Turkey.

Fighting continued for a second day in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, claimed by Armenians as well as by Azerbaijanis. Dozens of service members on both sides have been reported killed in a flare-up of violence that began Sunday morning. The ethnic Armenian majority in the region fought a bloody war of secession from Azerbaijan as the Soviet Union fell apart three decades ago. A tense cease-fire — but no lasting peace — has since kept tensions high in the Caucasus, an area where Russia, Turkey and Iran have historically competed.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 28, 2020

Explainer: Who's fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, and why does it matter? -- Mark Trevelyan, Reuters

Deadly rivalry: The decades-long feud between Armenia and Azerbaijan -- France 24

Armenia-Azerbaijan: What's behind the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? -- BBC

Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting and what are the implications? -- Michael Safi, The Guardian

Why you should care about conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan -- Al Jazeera

Colonialism and Cultural Erasure in Xinjiang -- Michael Clarke, Lowy Interpreter

Don’t Let China Conclude Its Opportunity Is ‘Now or Never’ -- James Holmes, Proceedings

China is paying a high price for provoking India -- Brahma Chellaney, The Strategist

Japan’s rejection of China olive branch on Senkaku-Diaoyu spat may be sign of tighter US ties -- Maria Slow, SCMP

After cabinet fiasco, where to now for Lebanon? -- AFP

Lebanon: Why the country is in crisis -- BBC

With Russia, it is Time to Restart Speaking Softly and Putting Away the Big Stick -- Alexander Grinberg, Strategy Bridge

Russia Plays It Cool With Belarus -- Ekaterina Zolotova, Geopolitical Futures

Belarus: what is the mood like in the country? -- The Guardian

NYT Bombshell Essentially Boils Down to This: Trump Paid Millions in Taxes, Owes No Debt to Russia -- Stephen Green, PJ Media

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 24, 2020

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump, Bahrain?s Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani and United Arab Emirates (UAE) Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed wave from the White House balcony after a signing ceremony for the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and some of its Middle East neighbors, in a strategic realignment of Middle Eastern countries against Iran, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S., September 15, 2020. REUTERS/Tom Brenner TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Robert D. Kaplan, National Interest: The Middle East’s New Map

From the author: The imminent establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and two Gulf states, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, is part of an on-going process of security cooperation going back many years. While that robs the event of some drama, it also increases its significance. It means that the process of ending the era of Arab-Israeli confrontation will continue, culminating perhaps in a political upheaval in Iran. That is the road that the Middle East may now be on.

The imminent establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and two Gulf states, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, is part of an on-going process of security cooperation going back many years. While that robs the event of some drama, it also increases its significance. It means that the process of ending the era of Arab-Israeli confrontation will continue, culminating perhaps in a political upheaval in Iran. That is the road that the Middle East may now be on.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 24, 2020

East-Med Gas Forum evolves as Israel, Egypt enhance cooperation -- Rina Bassist, Al-Monitor

Down but not out, Haftar still looms over Libya peace process -- Aidan Lewis, Reuters

Congress must support Sudan's transition -- David L. Phillips, The Hill

China Is Paying a High Price for Provoking India -- Brahma Chellaney, Project Syndicate

Duterte tightens grip as the Philippines falls apart -- Jason Castaneda, Asia Times

How much US debt does China own? -- Annabelle Timsit, Quartz

How China has poured billions into the Caribbean by investing in ports, roads and a five-star resort in a soft power grab – as Beijing is blamed for Barbados's calls to drop the Queen as Head of State -- Chris Pleasance, Daily Mail

Bali's coronavirus outbreak was so under control, they welcomed tourists. Now cases are exploding -- Anne Barker, ABC News Online

Is Moon Jae-in's North Korea Peace Plan Dead? -- Daniel R. DePetris, National Interest

Amid civilian-military conflict, does Pakistan need a new social contract? -- Shamil Shams, DW

A high-seas food fight has already 'gone kinetic,' and US military officials warn it still poses a bigger threat -- Business Insider

The power of incumbency: How Trump is using the Oval Office to win reelection -- Liz Peek, The Hill

'One day everyone will use China's digital currency' -- Danny Vincent, BBC News

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 23, 2020

Laura Trevelyan, BBC News: Is the world entering a new Cold War?

The United Nations is marking its 75th anniversary as the post-World War Two global order which created it is on shaky foundations.

Multilateralism is in serious disarray, as the former UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has observed.

President Donald Trump's America First foreign policy has seen the US thumb its nose at multilateral agreements from the Paris Climate accord to the Iran nuclear deal, while China is visibly positioning itself as the new supporter of the United Nations.

But growing Chinese influence comes at a price, and if Beijing is devoting more money to fund UN agencies like the World Health Organization then it will want more say as a result.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 23, 2020

China-US rivalry: Asian countries fear getting caught in a new Cold War -- Sarah Zheng, SCMP

China Ends ‘Median Line’ in the Taiwan Strait: The Start of a Crisis? -- J. Michael Cole, National Interest

Voices From the Himalayas Amid China-India Tensions -- Bhat Burhan, Diplomat

India And China: Dangerous tensions at the top of the world — again -- Japan Times editorial

Sinophobia, lies and hybrid war: Contrary to US rhetoric and disinformation China is not an existential threat to the 'free world' -- Pepe Escobar, Asia times

As Covid cases rise again, how are countries in Europe reacting? -- The Guardian

‘A Bag of Snickers to Survive in the Forest.’ Lukashenko Critic’s Unlikely Journey From Belarus to Poland -- Pjotr Sauer, Moscow Times

Vladimir Putin's UN Speech: Will Russia Head A New Nonaligned Movement? -- Nikolas K. Gvosdev, National Interest

Turkey's foreign policy becoming alarmingly militarized -- Metin Gurcan, Al-Monitor

The end of the Saudi era -- Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera

How the UAE emerged as a regional powerhouse -- Frank Gardner, BBC

Lebanon on a precipice between war and peace -- Alison Tahmizian Meuse, Asia Times

How Trump fell out of love with his generals, and why the feeling is mutual -- Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali, and Steve Holland, Reuters

The name's Bond, seriously: 007's namesake found in Polish Cold War archives -- Reuters

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 22, 2020

Sweden may have avoided second wave of coronavirus as it continues to record its lowest number of cases since March - with just 28 infections per 100,000 people

Daily Mail: Has Sweden beaten coronavirus? Expert claims by refusing to shut the country down the Swedes now have 'herd immunity' and have avoided a second wave

* Sweden was only European nation not to introduce strict lockdown measures
* It has been recording its lowest number of Covid-19 cases since start of outbreak
* It has seen 28 infections per 100,000 people compared to UK's 69 per 100,000

Sweden has beaten coronavirus by refusing to shut the country down and achieving herd immunity, according to an expert.

The Scandinavian nation was the only country in Europe not to introduce strict lockdown measures at the start of the pandemic.

But scientists believe that this may have helped it avoid a second wave of Covid-19 as it continues to record its lowest number of cases since March - with just 28 infections per 100,000 people.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 22, 2020

Coronavirus: Can European countries avoid a second lockdown? -- Mirjam Benecke, DW

COVID-19: All you need to know about Europe's second wave -- Aina Khan, Al Jazeera

US vs China: two new world orders on display as the UN turns 75, with Xi calling for collaboration and Trump slamming Beijing for coronavirus pandemic -- Sarah Zheng, Jacob Fromer and Phoebe Zhang SCMP

How will Japan's new leader handle growing China-US tensions? -- Nikkei Asian Review

Shinzo Abe Will Be a Tough Act to Follow -- Tobias Harris, Foreign Affairs

North Korea’s Next Move Worries White House, U.S. Military, Intel and Allied Officials -- Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest

Why Russia’s getting involved in the China-India border dispute -- Pranay Sharma, SCMP

Can Moscow Manage a Transition in Belarus? -- Artyom Shraibman, Moscow Times

Is this a new beginning for Mali? -- Inside Story/Al Jazeera

Legacy of Iran-Iraq War still reverberates 40 years later -- Sinan S Mahmoud, Al Jazeera

Turkish Lira Slips Further -- Diego Cupolo, Al Monitor

A France-Turkey Showdown Is Brewing -- Henri Barkey, Council on Foreign Relations

The Trump foreign policies Biden might keep -- Nahal Toosi, Politico

FinCEN: Why gold in your phone could be funding drug gangs -- Andy Verity, BBC Panorama

'Our 1945 moment': UN faces fears of a 'great fracture' at general assembly -- Julian Borger, The Guardian

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 21, 2020

DW: UN marks 75th anniversary as coronavirus 'lays bare' world's fragility

World leaders are coming together, virtually, to mark the 75th anniversary of the UN. The event is occurring under the cloud of the coronavirus pandemic which is challenging the solidarity of the 193-member world body.

The United Nations began its 75th anniversary commemoration in a muted fashion with a largely online event on Monday.

The UN was founded amid the ruins of World War II with the principle objective of achieving worldwide peace and world leaders came together, virtually, to mark the 75th anniversary of the organization.

With just a handful of delegates in New York due to the coronavirus, world leaders gave addresses via video links.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 21, 2020

UAE-Bahrain deals with Israel offer chance at a ‘warm peace,’ economic growth and a moderate Mideast alliance -- Frederick Kempe, CNBC

US-Iran relations and upcoming presidential elections -- Shabnam von Hein, DW

Afghan peace talks will fail, leaving US open to another 9/11, warns ex-Trump adviser in new book -- SCMP

It's geography, stupid: Proof of China's imperialism -- Washington Examiner

The Korean war: China’s reminder of strength against the US -- Shi Jiangtao and Holly Chik, SCMP

After Abe: How Japan’s new prime minister should handle diplomacy -- Elli Pohlkamp, European Council on Foreign Relations

Why Putin Hasn’t Won the Game in Belarus -- Eva Hartog, Politico EU

Moscow Divided on Lukashenko -- Paul Goble, Jamestown Foundation

Merkel Losing Her Patience with Lack of EU Solidarity -- Spiegel Online

Donald Trump or Joe Biden? What will change for Asean after the US election? -- Bhavan Jaipragas, SCMP

Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like? -- Samuel Brannen, CSIS

Trudeau Throne speech: Why this is a big moment for Canadian PM -- BBC

How it all went wrong (again) in Europe as second wave grips continent -- Emma Reynolds, CNN

Coronavirus: Can European countries avoid a second lockdown? -- Mirjam Benecke, DW

Covid: Is it time we learned to live with the virus? -- Nick Triggle, BBC

Coronavirus symptoms: how to tell if you have a common cold, flu or Covid -- Martin Belam, The Guardian

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 18, 2020

Emma Court, Bloomberg: U.S. Stands on Verge of Dark New Milestone: 200,000 Virus Deaths

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will top 200,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus in coming days, a devastating milestone that comes eight months after the pathogen was first confirmed on American soil.

The U.S., with 4% of the world’s population, accounts for about 21% of global coronavirus deaths. The disparity underscores America’s failure to contain a virus that blazed through populous states like Texas, Florida and California this summer despite predictions that warmer weather could bring a respite.

With a population of 330 million, the U.S. reached 100,000 Covid-19 deaths on May 27, four months after the first recorded case. It has taken another four months to reach 197,633 as of Thursday evening, according to Johns Hopkins University. That’s a number roughly equal to the population of Yonkers, New York, or Huntsville, Alabama. Brazil ranks second in deaths, with almost 135,000 in a nation of 210 million.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 18, 2020

Coronavirus pandemic: Where are the global hotspots? -- BBC

Coronavirus: constantly surprising virus found to be heat tolerant, self-healing and very resilient in lab tests -- Stephen Chen, SCMP

Taiwan: The threat that the world ignores -- Richard Walker, DW

China as a Faltering Contender. -- Andrew A. Latham, RCD

Avoiding Armageddon By Checkmating China -- James Jay Carafano, National Interest

Geopolitics and Geoeconomics Won the Cold War and Can Help Contain China. -- Francis P. Sempa, RCD

If China loses a future war, entropy could be imminent -- Jan Kallberg, Defense News

WAKE UP, AMERICA: China and Russia Are Plotting to Destroy Us -- Douglas Schoen, Medium

Exclusive: In Afghanistan, the Taliban eye their return to centre stage -- Sonia Ghezali, France 24

Mozambique's jihadists and the 'curse' of gas and rubies -- BBC

Turkey's confrontational foreign policy challenges Greece, European Union amid rising maritime tensions -- Chris Massaro, Fox News

Why Sweden Should Join NATO -- John Gustavsson, The Bulwark

US-led wars have displaced 37m people. America should accept responsibility -- David Vine, The Guardian

TikTok: The story of a social media giant -- Joe Tidy & Sophia Smith Galer, BBC News

Is the US about to split the internet? -- James Clayton, BBC

Are we ready for a wave of violence after the election? -- Alan Dershowitz, The Hill

Commentaries, Analysis, And Analysis -- September 16, 2020

Bahrain Foreign Min. Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, left, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Min. Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan at the Abraham Accords signing, the White House, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2020. AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Ahmed Charai, The Hill: Abraham Accords: New hope for peace in Middle East

The historic signing of peace agreements among Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates at the White House yesterday confounded diplomats and experts on three continents. It marks a true turning point in Middle East affairs.

Count me among many Arabs who have long believed that the peace plan deserves a chance – albeit one of the few who says so publicly. I have held this view to the surprise of many American, Israeli, and Palestinian friends.

Americans I know disparage the architects — led by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner — as too young and inexperienced to develop a viable solution.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Analysis -- September 16, 2020

How Trump Defied the Experts and Forged a Breakthrough in the Middle East -- Rich Lowry, National Review

Creating a New Middle East -- Yaakov Katz, Jerusalem Post

Stumbling Out of the Middle East is No Better Than Stumbling In -- Jon B. Alterman, Defense One

How to Do More With Less in the Middle East. American Policy in the Wake of the Pandemic -- Mara Karlin and Tamara Cofman Wittes, Foreign Affairs

The F-35 Triangle: America, Israel, the United Arab Emirates -- Barbara A. Leaf and Dana Stroul, War On The Rocks

Turkey’s Hyperactivity Echoes Through Mideast -- Kuperwasser & Ben-David, JCPA

Yoshihide Suga: The unexpected rise of Japan’s new prime minister -- Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, BBC News

The US-China tech cold war has turned hot – but would a Biden presidency change things for Huawei and others? -- Yujie Xue and Celia Chen in Shenzhen, SCMP

Five things from EU chief’s first State of the Union speech -- BBC

Foreign-policy sleepwalking: Wake up to Germany no longer being such a good ally -- John C. Hulsman, The Hill

Belarus: what is the mood like in the country? -- The Guardian

Niger: Fear of terror — and the military -- Silja Fröhlich, DW

How the Islamic State found a haven in Syrian desert -- Sultan al-Kanj, Al-Monitor

Oil Demand Has Collapsed, And It Won't Come Back Any Time Soon -- Camila Domonoske, NPR

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 15, 2020

Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat elbow bumps with an Emirati official, as he leaves Abu Dhabi on September 1, 2020 [Nir Elias/Pool via AP]

Jeremy Bowen, BBC: Five reasons why Israel's peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain matter

High-level delegations from Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will sign a historic US-brokered peace deal at the White House on Tuesday.

Bahrain's foreign minister will attend the event and sign its own agreement to normalise relations with Israel, announced by President Donald Trump last week.

This is why the deals are significant.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 15, 2020

What will be the impact of the Trump-sponsored normalisation? -- Joe Macaron, Al Jazeera

A Rare Middle East Triumph -- Bret Stephens, New York Times

The Middle East Strategic Realignment Reverberates Through South Asia -- Michael Rubin, National Interest

Why Moscow is quiet on the Israel-UAE peace deal -- Anna Borshchevskaya, The Hill

Suga needs to get radical to save Japan -- William Pesek, Asia Times

Abe’s last national security legacy for Suga to complete -- Kuni Miyake, Japan Times

Analyst: South Korea, Japan relations may not change under Suga -- Elizabeth Shim, UPI

Are EU-China trade relations at a crossroads? -- Clifford Coonan, DW

Instead of targeting TikTok and WeChat, the US should work on an alternative to China’s digital silk road -- Sam Olsen, SCMP

Kremlin looks to keep protest-torn Belarus in Moscow's orbit -- Sarah Rainsford, BBC News

Swimming naked: Germany's economy is sicker than you think -- Andreas Kluth, Sydney Morning Herald

From Australia to India and the Philippines, are coronavirus lockdowns working? -- John Power, SCMP

Perpetual recession? Recovery in a year? Economists deeply divided on U.S. future -- Howard Schneider, Reuters

'Farewell, fossil fuels'? What oil's demise will do to the world's leading economies -- Simon Henderson, The Hill

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 14, 2020

Jake Sturmer and Yumi Asada, ABC News Online: Yoshihide Suga to become next Japanese leader after Shinzo Abe steps down. This is what we know about him and the challenges he faces

It couldn't be a worse time to usher in a new leader.

A global pandemic. A struggling economy. And an increasingly tense relationship between the world's biggest superpowers, China and the US.

But in the wake of Shinzo Abe's surprise announcement he needed to resign for his health, Japan's ruling party is doing its best to quickly usher in a new leader who can hit the ground running.

It's backed Yoshihide Suga, Abe's right-hand man.

The 71-year-old won the most votes from both Liberal Democratic Party politicians and local chapters.

He is expected to continue the country's economic and foreign policies and will almost certainly be declared prime minister in a parliamentary vote to be held later this week.

But Suga now faces an unenviable battle, which includes trying to boost the third-largest economy in the world.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 14, 2020

Can Yoshihide Suga step outside Shinzo Abe's shadow? -- Chitrabhanu Kadalayil, The National

Suga era comes into view in Japan -- Andrew Salmon, Asia Times

‘Writing is on the wall’ for Saudi-Israel peace -- Alison Tahmizian Meuse, Asia Times

Israel ties that bind: What is the US giving Gulf Arab states? -- Creede Newton, Al Jazeera

Why Iran is bent on escalating tensions in the Gulf -- Raghida Dergham, National Interest

Arab Unity in the Middle East Can Be a Barrier to Iran’s Regional Goals -- Alma Keshavarz and Kiron Skinner, National Interest

Implications of a Biden victory for Iran? -- Mohammad Mazhari, Tehran Times

Rising protests and a sinking economy spell trouble in Thailand -- Michael Sainsbury, The Interpreter

Is There an End to Violence in South Asia? -- Niha Dagia, The Diplomat

North Korea and America in 2021: What Comes Next? -- Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest

Sudan floods muddy Nile dam talks -- Ayah Aman, Al-Monitor

Belarus opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya: 'We want another country' -- France 24

Will Putin and the ghost of the USSR save Lukashenko's Belarus? -- Mansur Mirovalev, Al Jazeera

Which countries are pushing the world's COVID-19 cases to new highs? -- Will Jackson, Erwin Renaldi, ABC News Online

TikTok: What is Oracle and why does it want the video-sharing app? -- Cristina Criddle, BBC

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 11, 2020

Steven Malanga, City Journal: Tale of Two Crises

The 9/11 attacks brought New York together; Covid has helped fracture it.

The Covid-19 pandemic has sparked a debate in New York about whether the city can recover the vitality that it had before the virus. Optimists point to how Gotham bounced back stronger than ever after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001—19 years ago today—though the devastating attacks sparked predictions that it might be decades before New York could rebound. It’s provocative to compare these two existential crises, nearly 20 years apart.

I’m on the side of the optimists, but I’m not sure that 9/11 is a useful template for what’s happening today. Some crises unite us, and 9/11 was one of those. Some cataclysms divide us, exacerbating our differences and amplifying the challenges we face. For a host of reasons—differences in leadership chief among them—the pandemic is one of those.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 11, 2020

Remembering Flight 93 and heroes of 9/11 -- David L. Bernhardt, Post Gazette

The Children of 9/11 Are About to Vote -- Garrett M. Graff, Politico

Intra-Afghan talks: A long, complicated process with no guarantee of success -- Shamil Shams & Masood Saifullah, DW

After 9/11: Has Germany failed in Afghanistan? -- Sandra Petersmann & Nina Werkhäuser, DW

Afghanistan talks: bitter foes with incompatible goals -- AFP

Doha talks could reshape Afghanistan, but peace not assured -- AFP

As China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus gains momentum, what is the outlook? -- Orange Wang, SCMP

‘Negative Peace’? China’s Approach to the Middle East -- Guy Burton, War On The Rocks

From Engagement to Pressure: The EU Gets Tougher on North Korean Sanctions -- Ramon Pacheco Pardo, 38 North

With UAE deal, Israel opens tentative new chapter with Gulf Arabs -- Frank Gardner, BBC

Putin holds key to Belarus crisis as Lukashenko heads to Moscow -- Shaun Walker, The Guardian

U.S. economy is improving, weeks before the election. Will Trump benefit? -- Ann Saphir, Reuters

OPEC at 60 — an oil cartel on life support -- Ashutosh Pandey, DW

Can Social Media Incite a War? -- David C. Benson, Ociris

Coronavirus vaccination: What are we actually waiting for? -- Julia Vergin, DW

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 10, 2020

A man wearing a shirt with an image of Zakir Rashid Bhat, the leader of an al Qaeda affiliate in Kashmir, following a gun battle with Indian security forces, Dadasara, India, May 2019

Danish Ismail / Reuters

Asfandyar Mir and Colin P. Clarke, Foreign Affairs: Al Qaeda’s Franchise Reboot

An Aging Jihadi Brand Still Inspires the Next Generation

Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaeda still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. But very few experts on Salafi-jihadi movements would dismiss the group outright. So when U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confidently declared in a March interview on Fox & Friends that “al Qaeda is a shadow of its former self,” we were startled and concerned.

By portraying al Qaeda as more of a nuisance than a threat, Pompeo helped President Donald Trump’s administration make the case for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan and making peace with the Taliban. Unfortunately, politically motivated threat assessments can be very dangerous, and Pompeo’s characterization of al Qaeda reflects wishful thinking at best and naiveté at worst. The United States must trade its rose-tinted glasses for a sober assessment of al Qaeda’s trajectory—and of the organization’s enduring ties to the Taliban.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 10, 2020

Terrorists behind 9/11 attacks 'stronger than ever' despite multi-trillion war on terror -- Richard Wood, 9 News

9/11 attacks: What's happened to al-Qaeda? -- Mina Al-Lami, BBC

Al Qaeda’s Leader Is Old, Bumbling—and a Terrorist Mastermind -- Colin P. Clarke & Asfandyar Mir, Foreign Policy

In a year of restrictions, virus changes Sept. 11, too -- Jennifer Peltz, AP

From 9/11 to the Great Reset -- Pepe Escobar, Asia Times

Will President Biden increase U.S. involvement in Syria? -- L.A. Times

Did Trump disclose secret US nuclear weapon in interview? -- AFP

Where are Lebanon's reforms? -- Alan MacKenzie, DW

What Is China’s Strategy in the Senkaku Islands? -- Alessio Patalano, War On The Rocks

The opposition in Belarus has faced a campaign of violence and threats from President Alexander Lukashenko. How did it get here? -- ABC News Online

Belarus: what is the mood like in the country? -- The Guardian

Where Navalny’s Poisoning Is Taking Russia, at Home and Abroad -- Alexander Baunov, Moscow Times

What is happening with the Bulgarian protest movement? -- Jana Tsoneva, Al Jazeera

Greek–Turkish Rivalry Is Again Near the Boiling Point -- Victor Davis Hanson, National Review

Is Political Correctness Destroying the Oscars? -- Sumantra Maitra, National Inteerst

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 9, 2020

The vaccine trial setback may dent public confidence. Photograph: Sergei Bobylev/Tass

Sarah Boseley, The Guardian: Oxford Covid vaccine trial suspension: what happens next?

Tests have been paused after a UK volunteer became ill. How will it affect the search for a cure?

Why has the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine trial been paused?

One of the volunteers in the UK has become ill and it is crucial that the researchers find out whether this could be related to the vaccine. This is not uncommon in vaccine trials – and in fact it is said to be the second time it has happened with this vaccine . Very large trials are essential to pick up any rare side-effects. Something that affects one in 10,000 people, for instance, will probably not be detected in the early trials of just a few thousand.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 9, 2020

We have no idea where Covid-19 vaccine will come from, says expert -- Sarah Boseley, The Guardian

Iraq after Soleimani: What is the future for US troops? -- Nafiseh Kohnavard, BBC

Iran plays dangerous game with uranium enrichment -- National editorial

What is behind the hype about the new Iran-China partnership? -- Tom Hussain, Al Jazeera

For Gulf Arab States, China Is a Temporary Friend -- Karen Young, Bloomberg

As Australian journalists flee China, Xi Jinping's 'China Dream' is coming to pass -- Stan Grant, ABC News Online

China’s new economic strategy may not sit well with its people -- David Uren, The Strategist

India China Standoff: Are we headed towards an armed conflict with China? -- Economic Times

India's coronavirus case numbers are rising fast — when will it overtake the US? -- Angelique Lu, Will Jackson and Alan Weedon, ABC News Online

How Sudan's rebel deal offers lifeline for peace -- BBC

What Russia Really Has in Mind for Belarus -- M. Carpenter & V. Kobets, Foreign Affairs

Belarus opposition needs a plan -- Vladimir Dorokhov, DW

Who needs the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 after all? -- Andreas Becker, DW

Time for Donald Trump to Make North Korea an Offer it Can’t Refuse? -- Doug Bandow, National Interest

Trump racks up foreign policy wins -- amid gaping holes -- AFP

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 7, 2020

Guardian Editorial: The Guardian view on Turkish-Greek relations: dangerous waters

A row over over borders, gasfields and national pride risks regional disorder.

Some claim it has been centuries since the Mediterranean has been viewed as the cockpit of history. But great powers and coastline states, wishing to capture hydrocarbon riches, are today vying for mastery of the sea – or at least its eastern waves. The trouble surfaced last month when a Turkish frigate escorting an oil-and-gas exploration ship collided with a Greek naval vessel. Since then, tempers have flared, with the unresolved question of Cyprus providing a flashpoint between the two nations. Greek ships were last week joined by France, Italy and the United Arab Emirates in the waters around Cyprus. Turkey announced that Russia will hold naval exercises. Nato is right that the temperature needs lowering and ought to be congratulated for kickstarting talks aimed at de-escalation. Nato members ought to trade words, not blows.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 7, 2020

Most Dangerous Waters in the World Are in the Mediterranean -- Bloomberg

To rebuild Lebanon and its economy, uproot corruption -- Sahar Atrache & Hardin Lang, Al Jazeera

Taliban peace talks: What to expect from the new round? -- Secunder Kermani, BBC

China to declare virus victory with unveiling of vaccines -- Frank Chen, Asia Times

How Beijing's influence is changing Hong Kong protests -- William Yang, DW

American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous -- Richard Haass and David Sacks, Foreign Affairs

Russia hedges its bets in Libya -- Neil Hauer, Asia Times

Poison, Protest and the Power of Putin -- John McLaughlin, Ozy

Could Navalny poisoning mean the end of Nord Stream 2 for Germany? -- DW

How to Resist Russia’s Crude Oil Crusade and Navigate Nord Stream 2 Nuances -- E. Wayne Merry, National Interest

Stationing US troops in Poland is a bad idea -- Gil Barndollar, The Hill

Extending the New START nuclear pact will help stabilize US-Russia relations -- Daniel DePetris, Defense News

The Belarus Uprising: A Repeat of Ukraine? -- Russell A. Berman and Kiron K. Skinner, National Interest

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 4, 2020

People sunbathe and swim on El Arenal beach in Spain, where the tourist season is in full swing.(Reuters: Enrique Calvo)

Nick Dole and Roscoe Whalan, ABC News Online: The COVID-19 second wave has hit Europe. So why haven't some countries locked down again?

Europe's attitude to COVID-19 might seem jarring to some Australians, especially those living under lockdown.

Europeans are returning to school, going to work, heading out for drinks and even cramming onto planes for summer holidays.

At the same time, the region is facing a major spike in infections with tens of thousands of new coronavirus cases reported every day across the continent.

But rather than reimposing aggressive lockdown strategies adopted during the first wave, European leaders seem determined to push on with a version of life that is as close to normal as possible.

Some countries, like the UK, are actively encouraging their populations to go back to work or to socialise.

There's less talk of defeating the virus in the short term, and more talk of living with it.

And that strategy will be tested in the coming weeks.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- September 4, 2020

The UAE-Israel Deal Spells Big Trouble For Iran. -- John Hanna, RCD

Erdogan pulls a rabbit out of his hat with Black Sea gas find, but is it all it seems? -- Gönül Tol and Rauf Mammadov, Middle East Institute

Mediterranean frenemies face off: Greece, Turkey at ‘the abyss’ -- Nick Squires, CSM

Power-Hungry Turkey May Push the Eastern Mediterranean Into an Armed Conflict -- Yaakov Amidror, National Interest

Turkey’s Black Sea Natural Gas Find is No Economic Miracle -- Stephen Blank, Center For Global Policy

The Middle East Just Doesn’t Matter as Much Any Longer -- Aaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky, Politico

India gains nothing from an ‘Asian NATO’ -- MK Bhadrakumar, Asia Times

Is Zimbabwe extending an olive branch to its white farmers? -- BBC

Will Vladimir Putin ride out the Navalny storm? -- Konstantin Eggert, DW

Belarus, the Kremlin and the Attack on Alexei Navalny -- Spiegel Online

Belarus is a battle for the heart and soul of Europe -- Terry Glavin, National Post

Four Reasons Why Regime Change Won’t Occur In Belarus -- Andranik Migranyan, National Interest

Lukashenko is no longer president of Belarus -- Linas Linkevičius, Politico

Interview with Opposition Leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: “There’s No Way That People Will Give Up” In Belarus -- Melinda Haring and Franak Viačorka, National Interest

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 31, 2020

This photograph released by the Turkish Defense Ministry on August 12, 2020, shows Turkish seismic research vessel Oruc Reis heading west of Antalya on the Mediterranean Sea. Photo: AFP / Handout / Turkish Defense Ministry

Henri J Barkey, Asia Times: What’s next in Eastern Mediterranean?

As Turkey, Greece and others wrangle over gas reserves, the outcome may depend on the result of the US election

Tensions are visibly mounting in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Greek and Turkish navies have conducted rival exercises. The Turkish seismic research vessel Oruç Reis, accompanied by naval vessels, has proceeded with exploration activities in areas deemed to be within Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Commensurately, the level of hostile rhetoric accompanying these tensions has also escalated. European countries are alarmed by these developments: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has done her utmost to calm things down; France, by contrast, has taken a dim view of what it perceives to be aggressive Turkish behavior and has openly sided with Greece by deploying its own naval vessels to the region.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 31, 2020

Battle for Idlib draws near as sides take position -- Sultan al-Kanj, Al-Monitor

What they said: 'historic' Israel to UAE flight -- AFP

Why Russia’s Great Power Game in Iraq Matters -- Anna Borshchevskaya, National Interest

Picking up the pieces: The psychological aftermath of the Beirut blast -- Karim Yahiaoui and Abdallah Malkawi, France 24

Our Allies Will Help With China—On Their Own Terms -- Mark Perry, American Conservative

What Happens If China Gets the Covid-19 Vaccine First? -- Elizabeth Ralph, Politico

US elections: who does China really want to win? and will it make a difference? -- Shi Jiangtao, SCMP

What Abe leaves behind for Japan and the world -- Brad Glosserman, Japan Times

Shinzo Abe’s Decision to Step Down -- CSIS

Eastern Corridor: India’s road to superpower status -- Ravi Kant, Asia Times

Pessimism mounts in Brussels over Brexit talks ‘disaster’ -- Barbara Moens, Politico

The Strange Story of Why Russian Navy Warships Sailed Through an Alaskan Fishing Fleet -- Peter Suciu, National Interest

WTO 'unable to resolve its problems' (Video) -- DW

Who's in the running for WTO leadership? -- AFP

What fewer people on the planet would mean for the environment -- Ajit Niranjan, DW

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 28, 2020

Jake Adelstein and Andrew Salmon, Asia Times: End of an Abe era for Japan

As Japan’s longest-serving premier steps down with a mixed legacy all eyes are already on potential successors

TOKYO/SEOUL – Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, 65, announced his resignation on Friday.

Citing ill health, he told a press conference in Tokyo that as he “cannot make any mistake in terms of important decision making,” he was not “ready to respond to the mandate by the public.”

Due to this, “I made a judgment I should not continue my job as prime minister,” Abe said.

Stating that he had “pulled out all stops for my job as prime minister,” Abe said he now needed “to fight against the disease and be treated,” as he was “not in a perfect state, in terms of health conditions.”

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 28, 2020

Explainer: What do we know about the health of Japan's Shinzo Abe? -- Elaine Lies, Reuters

What Happens To Abenomics With Abe Gone? -- Zero Hedge

Japan's Abe is out. But his economic legacy will last for decades -- Charles Riley and Julia Horowitz, CNN Business

Who could lead Japan after Abe? -- AFP

What’s Next for U.S.-Japan ‘Special Relationship’ -- A. Herman, National Review

A Cold War with China? -- Zack Brown, National Interest

US sanctions on Chinese firm at centre of South China Sea island-building ‘could ripple across Asia’ -- Bhavan Jaipragas, SCMP

Coronavirus: Is the rate of growth in Africa slowing down? -- Peter Mwai and Christopher Giles, BBC

Saudi-Pakistan Rift Develops Over India -- Simon Henderson, Washington Institute

ISIS is using the COVID distraction to rearm and regroup -- Ilan Berman, USA Today

What Was Really Behind Navalny’s Poisoning? -- Diana Kadi, National Interest

In Wake of Suspected Poisoning, Navalny’s Allies Vow to Soldier On -- Evan Gershkovich, Moscow Times

With Donald Trump and this election, it feels ominously like 2016 all over again -- Nathan Robinson, The Guardian

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 27, 2020

The PLA launched a version of the DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missile into the South China Sea on Wednesday. Photo: Xinhua

Liu Zhen, SCMP: Why China brought out the ‘aircraft-carrier killer’ to flex its military muscle

* PLA test-fired four medium-range ballistic missiles in the South China Sea on Wednesday, according to US defence official
* They included the DF-26B and DF-21D – types of weapons banned under the INF treaty, which Beijing wasn’t part of

When China flexed its military muscle in the South China Sea on Wednesday, it put the PLA’s most advanced land-based anti-ship ballistic missile to the test: the “aircraft-carrier killer”.

The DF-26B was fired into the northern area of the disputed waterway from Qinghai province in China’s northwest, a source close to the military said, in a move seen as a warning to the United States.

They said a DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile was also launched from Zhejiang province in the east.

However, a US defence official said the Chinese military had launched four medium-range ballistic missiles in the region on Wednesday, though they had yet to identify them, according to Reuters.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 27, 2020

China's 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles: Time to Separate Hype from Reality -- Kris Osborn, National Interest

China's Three Gorges Dam is one of the largest ever created. Was it worth it? -- Nectar Gan, CNN

How European views on China are hardening in the wake of Covid-19 -- Ido Vock, New Statesman

Taiwan and the United States — much thunder, little rain -- Douglas Paal, EastAsiaForum/Carnegie Endowment

Why instability in Belarus, Khabarovsk and Lebanon are problems Putin doesn't want -- Anna Borshchevskaya, The Hill

“The US Is Nowhere”: As The Political Crisis In Belarus Deepens, America Is Conspicuously Absent -- Christopher Miller, BuzzFeed News

Who else but Navalny? Kremlin critic's illness a blow for campaign to break Putin's grip -- Tom Balmforth and Anton Zverev, Reuters

The Navalny Case Won’t Change Russia’s Relations With the West -- Nikolas K. Gvosdev, National Interest

American Spy Planes Are Playing a Dangerous Game With Russia -- Ted Galen Carpenter, National Interest

Power crisis threatens already fragile situation in Gaza -- Rasha Abou Jalal, Al-Monitor

US pressure keeps elite infighting in Iran in check -- Sina Toossi, Al Jazeera

How Qatar uses soft power to conquer the world -- Lewis Sanders IV, DW

The Greater Middle East: From the “Arab Spring” to the “Axis of Failed States” -- Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS

Pulling Back the Curtain on Turkey’s Natural Gas Strategy -- John V. Bowlus, War On The Rocks

A simmering crisis between 2 allies could create a new headache for the US in a volatile region -- Stavros Atlamazoglou, Business Insider

Chile’s Economy Has Survived COVID-19, but Discontent Is Still Simmering -- Nicolás Saldías, WPR

Trump pops to 52%: ‘Best job approval rating on record,’ up with blacks, even Democrats -- Paul Bedard, Washington Secrets

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 25, 2020

Reuters

National Interest: Belarus At the Eye of the Storm

In a webinar, leading experts discuss the political upheaval in Belarus.

The rapidly developing situation in Belarus could potentially trigger the most significant shift in the European status quo since events in Ukraine in 2014. How likely is regime change in Minsk? Could Russia realistically take military action to forestall it? Might an incipient struggle for predominance in Belarus spark a wider confrontation between the United States, Europe, and Russia?

For the United States, Russia and the European Union, Belarus—and the fate of its President Alexander Lukashenko—has become an unexpected flashpoint. To discuss the situation, the Center for the National Interest hosted four prominent speakers. To hear the discussion you can use the link here:

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 25, 2020

Why Russia Is Getting Ready to Invade Belarus -- John Herbst, National Interest

Lukashenko's desperate measures -- Juri Rescheto, DW

Belarus' Soviet-era economy still propped up by Moscow -- Nik Martin, DW

We Are The Witnesses: Stories From Protesters In Belarus Of Police Torture And Abuse -- RFE

The Eastern Mediterranean tinderbox: Why Greek-Turkish rivalries have expanded -- Jonathan Marcus, BBC

Turkey starves Syria’s northeast of water as virus death toll mounts -- Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/08/turkey-starves-water-syria-northeast-coronavirus-hasakeh.html#ixzz6WAY07ZNy

Why Is Australia Turning Its Back On China? -- Vanand Meliksetian, OilPrice.com

Xi Jinping's Geopolitical Cataclysm -- Richard Javad Heydarian. National Interest

How to Stop China From Imposing Its Values -- Anthony Vinci, The Atlantic

How the US uses the dollar payments system to impose sanctions on a global scale -- Karen Yeung, SCMP

The case for bringing Japan into the Five Eyes -- Grant Newsham, Asia Times

How Ramaphosa’s Failures Left South Africa Vulnerable to a Pandemic -- James Hamill, WPR

The Poisoning of Navalny -- George Friedman, GPF

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 24, 2020

David P. Goldman, Asia Times: Why there won’t be a US-China war

China has spent massively on anti-access/area denial weapons that would make war impractical for the US

In 1976, world heavyweight champion Mohammed Ali fought an exhibition bout in Tokyo with karate master Antonio Inoki. Inoki spent most of the match on his back kicking at Ali’s shins crab-fashion.

“Ali was only able to land two jabs while Inoki’s kicks caused two blood clots and an infection that almost resulted in Ali’s leg being amputated,” Wikipedia reports. “The match was not scripted and ultimately declared a draw.”

Archival footage can be viewed here showing Ali hoisting himself on the ropes to avoid Inoki’s crab kicks.

That’s why there won’t be a shooting war between the US and China. China has spent massively on anti-access/area denial weapons – A2/AD for short – that make war impractical.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- August 24, 2020

Does U.S. Need to Fear China Will Invade Taiwan? -- Hal Brands, Bloomberg

Everything going according to plan in China -- Pepe Escobar, Asia Times

Kim Yo Jong could be even worse for North Korea than Kim Jong Un, experts say -- Bruce Golding, NYPost

Death and Denial in Turkmenistan -- Catherine Putz, The Diplomat

Who is poisoning Russian dissidents and why? -- Roman Dobrokhotov, Al Jazeera

Russian operation goes ‘offshore’ in Syria -- Anton Mardasov, Kirill Semyonov, Riddle

Greece irked by Germany in standoff with Turkey -- Nektaria Stamouli, Politico.eu

Press clampdown points to Covid cover-up in Iran -- Kourosh Ziabari, Asia Times

There is still much to be learned about the Beirut explosion -- Habib Battah, Al Jazeera

Lebanon Needs a New Start -- Javier Solana, Project Syndicate

After UAE-Israel deal, which Arab nation will next forge ties? -- AFP

World Powers Will Soon Face Off in Lebanon -- Raghida Dergham, The National

US Should Stop Weapons Flowing To Libya -- Ari Cicurel, Breaking Defense

The Vast Impact of Viruses -- The Economist

Why do Covid fatalities remain low when infection numbers are rising? -- Robin McKie, The Guardian