Sunday, April 16, 2017

The Libyan Mess Is Getting Worse

S.M. Carlson, War On The Rocks: The Libyan Mess Will Get Worse If Outside Powers Don't Cooperate

Libya is a mess and the internal fighting between the three warring governments and their respective militia forces is once again escalating. One of the drivers of the worsening violence is the disjointed outside support to the three different bodies that claim to be the legitimate government of Libya. That Russia has recently sought a greater role in Libya has destabilized an already fraught situation. Any resolution to the Libyan civil war now cannot ignore Russia’s interests. And given the recent U.S. cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase, tensions between Moscow and Washington could make compromise over Libya even more difficult than it might have been before. Or, if Washington and Moscow are both eager enough to put the strike in Syria behind them, Libya could be a test case for the renewed U.S.-Russian cooperation and collaboration that President Donald Trump once championed.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I do not see any cooperation from the international community when it comes to Libya. And as for the U.S. and Europe .... there is a minimal presence but also an awareness that Libya is one big quagmire. But the Russians are getting involved .... U.S. Alarmed By The Growing Russian Presence In Libya (March 27, 2017).

Update: Libya's civil war is now spreading to the south of the country .... Libyan Prime Minister reprimands intl community for allowing military violence in Libya’s south (Libyan Express).


Anonymous said...

How come Russia - with the GDP comparable to Italy(!) - can afford all this warfare and upgrade its military? And on top plan this super air craft carrier (see your other post).. sounds to me like they run out of money soon and Putin just wants to have a bit more fun while he's in power and wants to buy the future land through warfare in hopes it will pay off the debts he makes in the process

Jay Farquharson said...

Russian modernized weapons ( tanks, etc) are "good enough" and priced in rubles. Russian weapons are also "evolutionary" not "revolutionary", and they target niche areas, (AA, AD, ECM) Western Militaries ignore because they "assume" they will always have air superiority.

Take the Pak-FA , it has frontal stealth and some side stealth so you don't "see" it coming, unlike the F-22 and F-35, it has no rearward stealth. Rearward stealth reduces the radar signature some, but the rear IR signature of any jet aircraft is visible from space, so the Russian's don't waste money trying to hide in one spectrum, what is clearly visible and can't be hidden in another. It has "supermaneuverability", because the Russians hold that WVR fighting ability is still important.

All this keeps the price down.

As for the "Russian Supercarrier", Western Analysts have been claiming the Soviets/Russians were building one for 50 years. I'll belive the Russian's are building one when they build and finish a hull.

Given the Russian/Chinese/Iranian focus on AD, particularly US Carrier Groups, I think the Russians are well aware that Expeditionary Carriers, ( eg. Mistrals) have some uses, SuperCarriers are dead meat in a peer conflict.

Abroad, the Russian's stick to Clauswitz's Rules. Military tactics and strategies must align with achievable goals.

In Syria, the West chose to back the FSA, ( Britain claimed there were 75,000 "moderates", LMFAO) who were fighting on behalf of 2.5 million "democratic" Syrians, ( LMFAO again, turns out there were less than a million in total). Russia backed Assad, ( 250,000 fighters and growing), fighting on behalf of 20,000,000 Syrians.

In Lybia, Russia's co-opting the CIA's Gen. Haftar, the one guy in Lybia with a "unified" army, while the West can't make up it's minds about which of the three Governments to back.