How Will The Civil Wars In Syria And Libya End?

Christopher O'Brien, RCD: How Will The Civil Wars In Syria And Libya End

Introduction

This analysis assesses the best way to end a civil war according to four different outcomes: 1. a regime military victory, 2. a rebel military victory, 3. a politically inclusive negotiated settlement, and 4. a politically exclusive negotiated settlement. It found that military victories led to a more stable outcome compared to negotiated settlements. Additionally, different aspects of the civil war can determine whether a rebel or regime victory is more likely. Lastly, politically exclusive negotiated settlements result in the least stable environment, often acting as a trigger to reignite the conflict.

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WNU Editor: Even if the wars end today, it will take hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild these countries. No one is going to invest in these countries knowing to well how fragile and divisive they have become.

After Eight Years Libya Is Still At War With Itself. What Went Wrong?

A fighter loyal to Libyan internationally recognised government fires a 105 mm cannon at forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar outside Tripoli, Libya May 15, 2019. REUTERS/ TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY (Reuters: Goran Tomasevic)

Tracey Shelton, ABC News Online: Moamar Gaddafi has been dead eight years yet Libya is still at war with itself. What went wrong?

Amid a frenzied mix of anger, disbelief and exultation, shouts of "Don't kill him! Don't kill him!" echoed through the crowd of rebel fighters as Libyan leader colonel Moamar Gaddafi was pulled from his hiding place inside a stormwater drain.

The former dictator and a band of his most loyal men had been holed up inside an area of just a few suburban blocks in Gaddafi's childhood home of Sirte.

I had spent months embedded with rebel forces when on October 20, 2011, a convoy of around 40 cars fled the city and were bombed on the outskirts of town by NATO aircraft.

An injured Gaddafi had taken shelter in the drain which ran underneath a backroad, while the last of his men fought to their deaths to protect him.

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WNU Editor: After deposing Gaddafi the Western powers had no interest to step into Libya's security void and chaos. The chaos and disorder in Iraq was still on everyone's mind, and no one wanted to be responsible for another country.

Libya Has Been In Chaos Since 2011

Libya has been rocked by chaos since a 2011 uprising that toppled and killed Muammar Gaddafi (Reuters)

Peter Bergen and Alyssa Sims, CNN: Seven years after Obama's 'worst mistake,' Libya killing is rampant

(CNN)Years after then President Barack Obama made what he has described as his worst mistake by not adequately planning for the fall of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya remains in chaos. In the past seven years, four nations have conducted air strikes in Libya and hundreds of civilians have died in those strikes.

As the protests of the Arab Spring swept through Libya, Gadhafi mounted a war of attrition against his own people describing those who were protesting his rule as "rats."

The Obama administration helped steer a UN resolution to take military action to protect Libyan civilians, which resulted in a US-led NATO intervention in Libya. Gadhafi was eventually killed by rebels.

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WNU Editor: I see zero possibility of a peaceful resolution to the internal strife in Libya being resolved in the next few years. There are too many foreign players involved, and no side has a decided advantage to defeat the others.

Libya Is A Failed State, And It Is America's Fault

Ted Galen Carpenter, National Interest: Libya Is a Failed State (and It's America's Fault)

When the Obama administration led a 2011 NATO military intervention on behalf of rebels seeking to overthrow Libyan dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi, there was considerable optimism that the move would produce a much better country. Although U.S. officials and their media cheerleaders acknowledged that significant challenges remained for a post-Qaddafi Libya, they argued that the outcome could scarcely be worse than the oppressive status quo. Events over the past six years have proven their assumptions spectacularly wrong. Libya is now a cauldron of turmoil and Islamic radicalism.

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WNU Editor: It was primarily British Prime Minister Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy who pushed for this war .... and when it exploded and they lacked the resources they convinced everyone else to join in. Russia warned at the time that this was going to happen .... Libya becoming a failed state if Qaddafi was removed .... but Putin did not have the clout or influence to change anyone's opinion. So is Libya a failed state because of the U.S. .... the answer is both yes and no. I do recall at the time that President Obama was deeply reluctant to get engaged, even when many on his staff were pushing for it (Hillary Clinton and Samantha Powers come to mind) .... Obama’s Women Advisers Pushed War Against Libya (The Nation). But bottom line .... while President Obama did commit to the fight, there is a lot of blame to go around, and the U.S. is not the only guilty party to this mess.

The West's Failed Policy In Libya Continues To Reverberate Throughout North Africa

Washington Post: Deaths of four U.S. soldiers in Niger hint at the shadow war against ISIS in Africa

NIAMEY, Niger — Less than a year ago, the Islamic State’s ambitions in Africa seemed all but shattered. In Libya, militias assisted by U.S. Special Operations soldiers and airstrikes drove the militants from their stronghold in the city of Sirte. Hundreds of Islamic State fighters died. Others fled south toward desert hideouts.

“There were no more black flags,” recalled Claudia Gazzini, a senior Libya analyst for the International Crisis Group, describing the situation when she visited southern Libya after the militant group’s defeat in December.

But many highly trained Islamic State fighters crossed into the vast ungoverned areas of impoverished Niger, according to regional security officials and analysts. Some then flowed to zones where militants were active in Mali, Nigeria and other countries.

The fighters have helped inject new energy into a spreading Islamist militancy, creating fresh challenges for U.S. forces in the region. Few Americans knew their troops were engaged in one of the world’s most complex battlegrounds until four U.S. soldiers were killed by militants last month in a remote corner of Niger.

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WNU Editor: President Bush will be remembered for launching a war of choice against Iraq, while pursuing a failed policy of nation building in Afghanistan. President Obama will be remembered for the surge in Afghanistan, sending U.S. forces back into Iraq after leaving the country, and .... of course .... being instrumental in the overthrow of Libyan strongman Qaddafi. Unfortunately .... the fall of Qaddafi .... with no follow-up from the West .... has resulted in a leadership vacuum and countless wars that are ideal for both Al Qaeda and ISIS to prosper. And here is an easy prediction .... this is going to get worse.

The Libyan Mess Is Getting Worse

S.M. Carlson, War On The Rocks: The Libyan Mess Will Get Worse If Outside Powers Don't Cooperate

Libya is a mess and the internal fighting between the three warring governments and their respective militia forces is once again escalating. One of the drivers of the worsening violence is the disjointed outside support to the three different bodies that claim to be the legitimate government of Libya. That Russia has recently sought a greater role in Libya has destabilized an already fraught situation. Any resolution to the Libyan civil war now cannot ignore Russia’s interests. And given the recent U.S. cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase, tensions between Moscow and Washington could make compromise over Libya even more difficult than it might have been before. Or, if Washington and Moscow are both eager enough to put the strike in Syria behind them, Libya could be a test case for the renewed U.S.-Russian cooperation and collaboration that President Donald Trump once championed.

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WNU Editor: I do not see any cooperation from the international community when it comes to Libya. And as for the U.S. and Europe .... there is a minimal presence but also an awareness that Libya is one big quagmire. But the Russians are getting involved .... U.S. Alarmed By The Growing Russian Presence In Libya (March 27, 2017).

Update: Libya's civil war is now spreading to the south of the country .... Libyan Prime Minister reprimands intl community for allowing military violence in Libya’s south (Libyan Express).

Is NATO To Blame For The Mess In Libya?

Rebels rested Wednesday after seizing Qawalish, a village in western Libya. The battle reflected their strengths and weaknesses. Bryan Denton for The New York Times

Christopher J. Fettweis, National Interest: Don't Blame NATO for Libya

The United States vastly overestimates the amount of control it can exert over the troubled, deeply divided societies of the Middle East.

In mid-March 2011, as Libyan government troops were closing in on Benghazi, the de facto capital of the rebellion that had started the month before, NATO decided to act. Its bombardment, which followed votes of support in the Arab League and UN Security Council, turned the tide of war. Seven months later Muammar el-Qaddafi was dead and his regime in tatters. Once this initial intervention came to a close, outsiders seemed to lose interest in the future of Libya. Despite initial optimism, no successor government has been able to unify the country’s various ethnic groups, tribes and fundamentalists. Now, five years after the fall of the tyrant, Libya is one of four failed states in the Arab world, and no end to its suffering is in sight.

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WNU editor: There is a lot of blame that can go around on why Libya is a failed state .... the U.S./NATO intervention in 2011 included.

How U.S. Short-Term Thinking Doomed Libya

Dominic Tierney, The Atlantic: How Not to Plan for ‘The Day After’ In Libya

In its anti-ISIS bombing campaign in Libya, the United States seems destined to once again sacrifice long-term stability for short-term gain.

On August 1, the Obama administration announced a series of airstrikes against Islamic State positions in the Libyan city of Sirte, in coordination with a ground assault by Libya’s internationally recognized, Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA). The new mission marks a significant escalation: while the United States has carried out targeted air strikes against ISIS leaders and training camps in Libya over the past year, it has now picked a side in the country’s civil war—the GNA.

The GNA’s attempt to dislodge ISIS from Sirte will present the UN-supported unity government with a critical test. The stakes are equally high for ISIS: If it secures a strong foothold in Libya, militants could use it as a springboard for further attacks in Europe, compensating for its territorial losses in Syria and Iraq. Libya’s wider stability is also a pressing issue, because hundreds of thousands of refugees have traveled from Libya to Europe, with thousands drowning along the way.

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WNU Editor: Dominic Tierney sums it up perfectly ....

..... The White House doesn’t want to think too far ahead in Libya, because a credible plan to stabilize the country could draw the United States into a greater commitment than Obama wants, while raising the dreaded specter of nation-building.

Yup .... after spending years condemning President George Bush and his policy of nation-building .... it would be foolish to then do the same thing what you spent years condemning. So the priority from today's White House is clear .... keep the lid on this mess, and pass it to the next President.

Western Nations Are Reluctant To Commit Griound Forces In Libya

No decisions have been made about any deployment of British troops to Libya, the Government said

Tom Kington, Defense News: Libya's Unresolved Issues Make Western Nations Wary of Committing Troops

ROME — The arrival in Libya of a new, UN-backed government has given the lawless country a semblance of stability, but a series of unresolved legal and military issues are making Western nations wary of dispatching soldiers and ships to help out the administration.

New prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj sailed to Tripoli in March to seek to unite the country, which has been run since 2014 by two rival governments — one in Tripoli and one in Tobruk — as well as numerous warring militias.

He has won backing from the Tripoli-based administration, but lawmakers in Tobruk in the country's east are holding out, much to the frustration of European countries. The UK and Italy want to see Sarraj get the country behind him and then call in support from Western militaries.

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WNU Editor: After what has happened in iraq and Afghanistan it is only natural that Western nations are reluctant to get involved. But Libya is next door to Europe .... for the Europeans hoping the problem would go away is not a policy, nor a solution. My prediction .... Libya is going to be type of mission creep for Europe. There are already a number of special ops in the country .... expect this number to climb.

As Libya Descends Into Chaos, The Islamic State Expands

Spiegel Online

Christoph Reuter, Spiegel Online: The Next Disaster: Islamic State Expands as Libya Descends into Chaos

With two separate governments waging war against each other, Libya is crumbling. Islamic State is taking advantage of the turmoil to put down roots in the country. The US is weighing intervention.

The brass band starts playing. The musicians march along the Corniche, their blue uniforms starched and instruments polished and shining. The foreign minister has arranged for the celebration of several grand openings. Shops and cafés have opened their doors and red-black-green flags have been strung up all over, marking the fifth anniversary of the revolution.

Nothing in the capital city of Tripoli hints that Libya is in the throes of a civil war.
Still, an advance car equipped with a signal jammer that is supposed to block the detonation of any remote controlled explosives drives ahead of the foreign minister's motorcade. And there are only a few consuls from neighboring countries walking along with the parade. After a brief address, the foreign minister plants an olive tree and then inaugurates a new low-rise government building. As he does so, secret service operatives dressed in civilian clothing go after a cameraman from the US TV station HBO. His offense is having filmed one of their white automobiles parked on the side of the road, though around three-quarters of all cars in Libya are white. They jerk the camera away from him amid the loud protestations of his crew. The band continues playing and then cake is served.

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WNU Editor: The time to act is now .... but Europe is in chaos because of the migrant crisis, and President Obama is not willing to commit military resources to the fight. My prediction .... the Libyan crisis is going to be handed to the next U.S. President.

Bing West: If Your Ambassador Has Been Killed Or Captured You Don’t Ask “Mother May I” Before You Cross The Border

WNU Editor: Bing West sums it up best at 1:40 in the report.

“For the United States military to say that they were 480 miles away and they couldn’t do anything, and they couldn’t move one aircraft in 8 hours? I’d say it’s time to relieve a lot of people in the chain of command… If your ambassador has been either killed or captured, and is missing at the hands of terrorists, you do not ask any country for “Mother may I?” before you come across the border to save your own.’”

And while I still doubt that the U.S. military could have changed what happened on the ground, it infuriates me that they still did not at least try.

Update: Bing West has a must read post on the Libyan debacle here.

A Look At Libya One Year After Gaddafi

 

Libya: A Year After Gaddafi -- Al Jazeera 

Faced with the threat from armed militias, we ask if the country is on track to complete the transition to democracy. A year ago Libyans celebrated the end of Muammar Gaddafi's rule. He was captured and killed on October 20, 2011. Although the country's prospects seemed bright back then, its transition to democracy has been far from easy. Libya is facing profound challenges - most notably the threat from armed militias. The current fighting over the city of Bani Walid, which was a Gaddafi stronghold, is the latest example. Government-aligned militias are battling armed groups who claim to be Gaddafi loyalists.  

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My Comment: Bottom line .... Libya is still a mess .... but .... at least there is some hope that life will get better.

With Gaddafi Dead, Is Libya's Civil War Over?

With Muammar Qaddafi Killed, Is Libya's War Over? -- Dan Murphy, Christian Science Monitor

Muammar Qaddafi was killed today by guerrillas near his hometown. His death dramatically limits the chances of a long-running insurgency in Libya.

The details of Muammar Qaddafi's death are still trickling out of Sirte. While the full circumstances of his killing aren't yet clear, beyond the fact that he appeared to meet his end at the hands of Libyan revolutionaries, a new chapter in Libyan history has been opened.

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My Comment: With Gaddafi dead and his remaining sons also either dead or on the run .... this war is now over. The focus for the new government will be on how to win the peace, and in a tribal society like Libya's .... with a long history of revenge and pent-up hate .... that is not going to be an easy task.

Meet The Ragtag Convoy Of Desperate, Committed Fighters Who Overthrew Gadhafi

The Lightning Advance That Ended Gadhafi's Rule -- Clemens Höges, Spiegel Online

In the end, the fall of Moammar Gadhafi's regime came quickly, after the rebels mounted a lightning advance into Tripoli to finally topple the hated dictator who ruled Libya for 42 years. SPIEGEL followed the ragtag convoy of desperate, committed fighters into the capital.

The man is finally sitting on the fine sandy beach of Tripoli. The sea is calm and the water a deep turquoise blue. He says that he's a very good marksman, and has a black rifle lying across his knees. Now, after all that's happened, it doesn't bother him anymore to shoot black Africans he believes are mercenaries. But shooting Libyans, says Abu Bakr Uraibi, is still difficult for him. And the first time he killed someone was the most difficult of all.

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My Comment: If you have the will, moral high-ground, sense of direction and purpose, and determination .... coupled with a little NATO air support and military aid .... these men proved that anything is possible.

Who Are Libya's New International Friends (And Enemies)

Libya’s Rebels Unhappy with Russia and China -- Michael J. Totten, Commentary

No one is an expert on Libya’s rebels, and we haven’t a clue who the next leader of the country will be or how he will be chosen. (Libya is very much a man’s world so the next leader absolutely will be a he.) Even so, small indications about what to expect from the future government do bubble up once in a while.

The Chinese are trying to ingratiate themselves with Libya’s future leaders after opposing the assistance given them by the West, and they’re meeting resistance. “We don’t have a problem with western countries like the Italians, French and UK companies,” says a rebel official in charge of the Agoco oil firm. “But we may have some political issues with Russia, China and Brazil.”

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My Comment: You can also throw into this mix countries like Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and a whole host of African nations. They were Kadafi's most loyal supporters, and it will take a long time before this is forgotten by the new government in Libya. Russia's RT is (of course) voicing another opinion.

A Few Thought About Gaddafi And Libya

A Few Caveats About Qaddafi and Libya -- Max Boot, Commentary

Muammar Qaddafi’s rule, which began nearly 42 years ago, appears to be in its death throes. Rebels have entered Tripoli, and if news accounts are to be believed, the regime’s defenders are collapsing faster than anyone expected. The “ring of steel” Qaddafi had supposedly erected around his capital proved as formidable as all the defenses Saddam Hussein​ had boasted would keep Baghdad safe from an American-led invasion in 2003. This is hardly surprising: Regimes like Qaddafi’s or Saddam’s depend on fear to survive. They have little love or loyalty to call upon. Once the veil of fear protecting the regime is pierced–once it appears its enemies are ascendant–dictators like Qaddafi and Saddam discover how few real friends they actually have.

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My Comment: I concur with Max Boot's analysis 100%

Is Air Power Enough To End The Libyan War?

Can Air Power End Libya War? -- CNN

It was supposed to have been over in a few days. World powers would go in with fighter jets and the world's most sophisticated precision-guided weapons to render Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi powerless.

But that's not the way things happened.

As NATO's airstrikes crossed the 100-day mark, analysts blamed a host of faulty assumptions, including success based solely on surgical airstrikes, for a protracted war that some fear could drag on for more months.

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My Comment: When the Libyan civil war broke out and Western powers made the decision to support the rebellion, I said in March exactly the same thing that Moni Basu is saying in this CNN post ....

.... "In reality, Libya is divided along lines of clan and tribe, some of whom benefit greatly from Gadhafi, and therefore defend him fiercely," he said. "Any expert on ethnic conflict and intervention could have told the White House that ahead of time."

Libya is a country made up of numerous clans and tribes who do not get along with each other. Gaddafi's genius .... until now .... was that he was able to manipulate and convince these groups that they should support him, and he would then support them.

While Gaddafi has made numerous mistakes, the number one mistake that the Western powers have made stems from not being sensitive to the cultural and social makeup of Libya as well as not being aware that the dissident movement was not capable of overthrowing Gaddafi .... an ignorance that is unfortunately becoming very costly to everyone right now.

In the end .... and the Russians have been saying this since the Libya civil war first started .... Western ground troops will be necessary to not only end the war, but to also prevent the humanitarian disaster that is slowly evolving and becoming a reality in Libya.

What Is Next For Libya?

Colonel Muamar Gaddafi Photo: REUTERS

Tripoli Dispatch: Will Gaddafi Go With A Whimper Or A Bang? -- The Telegraph

There is propaganda on either side, but neither Colonel Gaddafi nor his Nato foes seem to have many new ideas, reports Andrew Gilligan in Tripoli.

At 2am last Thursday, it sounded like curtains for Muammar Gaddafi. Enormous volleys of gunfire broke out across Tripoli, and around the hotel where the foreign press is forced to stay. Armed men charged past in pickup trucks, firing their weapons and wildly honking their horns. Was this the "Saddam statue moment" that Obama, Sarkozy and Cameron have been longing for?

But then it became clear that the flags flying from the trucks were a regime-friendly green, and the pictures taped to the windscreens were of a certain colonel only too familiar to Tripoli residents.

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My Comment: A sobering analysis on what is happening in Libya today. Libya has always been a country made up of numerous tribes that for the past 4 decades has been ruled by a dictator. Through miscalculation and forces outside of his control, Gaddafi now finds himself in the position that he is in. But what has saved him is the weakness of his opponents, and a lack of will among NATO members to ratchet up this conflict to the next level so that there would be enough internal Libyan pressure that would force him out.

Will there be a change in NATO policy this summer .... I doubt it .... and the U.S. has made it very clear that they have no interest to become actively involved in this conflict. My prediction .... this war is going to continue for a very long time, and in the end .... because of this bloody stalemate .... Gaddafi will find himself in a position of weakening strength and influence that he will be quietly pushed aside by his family.

NATO's Role In Libya -- A Commentary

The Muddle at the Middle of NATO's Libya Efforts -- Michael Elliott, Time

When considering the mess that the U.S. and its NATO allies have got themselves into in Libya, it's helpful to remember the old story of the Irish traveller who asked a farmer for the quickest way to Dublin. Came the reply: "I wouldn't start from here."

NATO's actions in Libya are authorized under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973, which, in addition to establishing a no-fly zone, permits "all necessary measures...to protect civilians and civilian authorities under threat of attack." The resolution includes lots of language condemning the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, and identifies the situation in Libya as a "threat to international peace and security," but its objectives are strictly limited: they do not extend to justifying the military overthrow of Gaddafi's regime.

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My Comment: I couldn't have said it any better.

The White House Strategy For Libya (A Commentary)

Inside The Intervention -- Steven Metz, New Republic

There’s a clear logic behind Obama’s Libya strategy—but that doesn’t mean it will succeed.

Strategy is a strange beast. Up close—as it is unfolding—even a good strategy can appear muddled, confused, and indecisive. Its logic only becomes clear over time. President Obama’s Libya strategy demonstrates this. It has drawn howls of criticism from across the political spectrum, most of the “muddled, confused, and indecisive” variant. But, when dissected, it does have an internal logic.

Put simply, Obama’s Libya strategy is designed to avoid the most undesirable outcomes rather than optimize the chances of a desired outcome, to do something without “owning” the conflict, to maintain maximum flexibility as the situation evolves, and to do all of this in the face of powerful constraints. The question is whether this strategy can actually work.

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My Comment: Trying to fight a war on the cheap .... if President Obama can pull this off .... kudos to him. But my gut is telling me that this is a wishful thinking .... that this war .... like most wars .... will evolve into a conflict that will take a long time to resolve, and sap our resources even further than what was originally planned.