Fears are growing of an imminent conflict in eastern Europe as Russia and Belarus carry out snap military drills close to where a migrant crisis is playing out on Poland's border, while Washington warns Putin is preparing to invade eastern Ukraine
Defense One: Belarus Is Laying Tinder for a War. How Will NATO Respond?
The weaponization of migrants shows how gray-zone tactics flummox an alliance set up to deal with conventional or nuclear attacks.
Belarus Is Laying Tinder for a War. How Will NATO Respond?
If you wanted to cause a war, here’s a formula with high odds of success. Send thousands of migrants to your border, have your border force try to push them into a neighboring country, and fire warning shots when your neighbor’s soldiers try to keep the migrants out. In such a tense situation, the other country’s soldiers might misinterpret the shots and fire back. At Belarus’s border with Poland, such an accidental conflict is now a concrete risk. What will NATO do if it comes to pass?
“The potential for escalation is extremely high,” Estonia’s defence minister, Kalle Laanet, told a defense conference on Nov. 10.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: It looks like Belarus wants to escalate this crisis .... Belarus moving more troops to Polish border (Defence Blog)
Update: I have not seen this level of military tensions on the borders since 2014 .... Deadly game of cat and mouse in the skies over Europe: Video shows RAF jet intercepting Russian bomber as it heads towards British airspace as as tensions rise in Belarus amid fears of Ukraine invasion (Daily Mail). More here .... US jets intercepted by Russia as Moscow complains about 'aggressive military activity in the Black Sea region' - and tensions remain high over exercises on the border with Ukraine (Daily Mail).
9 comments:
I figured there would not be a war until late February or early March. Now, I am thing there could be one around Christmas or the month of January. If Taiwan and Ukraine popped off, there is nothing the US could do except ramp up production and start a new Cold War.
I do not know and am using my best guess.
IF Russia could destabilize Poland or Poland and a few other countries, it would give them a free hand in Ukraine. The Poles can fight. The Poles can fight unless they were swamped with refugees courtesy of Erdogan and Lukashenko.
In my view Lukashenko and Putin know their roles. Lukashenko 's role is to play the fool. Lukashenko plays the fool and he gets to lord it over the Duchy of Belarus for another 15 years. Putin is willing to wait. Lukashenko is no more crazy than Saddam Hussein.
Lukashenko is Sydney Carton. He is a jackal, the court jester or a fool.
Putin is Stryver. He is the Lion. Unlike Stryver he is quite capable.
Russia will take the Russian speaking portions of Ukraine plus a landbridge to Crimea. For the time being Putin will forego taking over the Ukrainian rump state. He may give that to Joe as a consolation prize, so Joe can look like a belated saviour and thump his chest like a baboon.
Yes, the risk is if Taiwan and Europe is popping at the same time with a sleepy American President.
You assume the Russians can take Eastern Ukraine based on the old Soviet army not the real decrepit one they have now.
Prior service plus armchair generalship is what I have. So granted I can be wrong. I can be very, very wrong.
Been reading about the first and second Chechnyan Wars. It makes me wonder why I bothered to read the MSM on the topic. During the 1st Chechnyan war training was nonexistent and the Russians went fast. The T-72 took hard hits from RPGs. During the 2nd Chechnyan war the Russian had better tanks, which were more resistant to RPGs.
The Russians in the 2nd Chechnyan war were better trained than during the 1st war. Advancement was more methodical and so the Russians kept their gains and lowered casualties. The Russian taking of Grozny was similar to the Roman clearing Mare Nostrum of pirates.
The Ukrainians have better antitank weapons than the Chechnyans, so it would give a tanker pause. Those antitank weapons are targets themselves from infantry , artillery, drones and other stuff. The Ukrainians also have Turkish drones. Current generation of drones do not do well in a kinetic environment. You need air superiority for drones, which the Russian probably would have. Plus, I would expect the Russians have more drones. Drones would affect the curse of a war for 2 weeks max before they are shot down or retired to be sparingly used?
The Russian insurgents have not made many gains in a long time. Maybe they are on a short leash. The insurgents have had to fight the Ukrainians and the Russians. When things go kinetic expect the Russians to release their dogs and those dogs will be more effective than expected. Those dogs will also get treatment similar to what the Viet Cong received after 1975.
The purpose of the migrant clashes on the Polish border is to take Poland out of any near term conflict. It is also part of a long term thousand cuts strategy to debilitate Western European states. The Western European states are doing fin on their on knocking themselves our, but a friendly shove by Putin would help speed things along would it not? Poland has an army Germany does not. Can Merkel get the helicopter, jets, frigate, subs, armor and infantry up all at the same time without severe material deficiencies? Trump has a point about the Germans and sleepy Joe is not going to put a boot in Merkel's ass. He is napping.
There is a reason the Pentagon measure uptime, operational readiness, or reliability for equipment. HAs the US military behind closed doors got into the shit of German generals and tell them to improve their operational readiness to include petitioning Merkel to WAKE The FUCK UP? The generals should have done that behind closed doors and if there were no results to back Trump when he pressed Germany on the state of the German military. But the general are shit eaters and party circuit courtiers. If Poland and Germany are not going to come to Ukraine's aid that wo9uld leave France and Britain left. They would have to cross central and Eastern Europe to get there. Last I checked those idiots could not cross Austria to take on the Serbs in the 1990s. Things have improved since then?
I think they have. Macron did a photo shoot of hip being gently lowered by helo on to the deck of a submarine at sea. Very MANLY!
Yeah I bet the Russians can take the other 50% of the Donbas and I bet they have secret non Aggression pact with China.
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It will be harder to build production ones in the US during wartime than it was to ship them to China in peacetime.
Especially so, since the Holy cities of Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago have been debased and profaned.
Thanks for the commentary 12:12 but your arm chair war fantasies are the same delusional ideas of most of the older generation in America. You do realize that Trump damaged America's international image so profoundly, while shoving is nose up the asses of the worst regimes in the world, that we are in disarray now? You old orange cult thin blue line waving were born and bred in the era of manufactured consent, always unaware of the filth you support - unwilling to show an ounce of compassion. False patriots following and supporting a cult instead of their nation. Boomers and their kids, born into all the tools and connections, but without the compassion to do some good for their nation. Falsely devout but praying for the end-times, fooled and intrigued by an legit antichrist figure. Can't get any more shitty in American politics than this folks.
First the reference to Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland as holy cites is both tongue and cheek and deadly serious. How two contradictory ideas could both be true at the same time is for theological training, but you are too anti-Semitic to go there.
Rush one day complained he was sick and tired of Ayatollahs and others calling cities like Qom or Karbala holy and therefore sacrosanct (off limits) while threatening to nuke American cities. So he called those major American cities holy. What is real is that holy shit they are knee deep in trouble. Thank you Democrats.
To have a factory to make things like I don' know cars, tanks, computers, airplanes etc, you first need machine tools. If you look at the name plate data on the machinery a lot of it said Cleveland. So if a a machine tool maker went out of business or moved overseas, the hurt and the suck is a lot worse than you think it is going to be. In a way to a techie, Cleveland is or was a "holy" city.
Now how is engaging in a trade war to fight back against China's unfair trade practices, putting the nose up Xi's ass?
Everything I wrote about Chechnya is spot on. Ditto Germany. I gave detail. You gave a bunch of adjective and adverbs, which was nothing other than an ad hominem attack.
Please insert another quarter to play again.
... tongue in cheek ...
Its only personal if you think you are Trump - a fascist may dream I suppose.
But I guess I forgot about what vile thing Rush said(is separation of church and state not real)...or was it that the Boomers sent our manufacturing elsewhere...voted in Trump...so he starts starts with an inauguration lie...then putting family in admin roles...the Saudi magic show...kleptocratic exploitation using hotels...buying Greenland...Flynn clown warnings ignored....cut to pandemic early warning program...anti-Islam videos shared online...largest government shutdown in history...Biden conspiracy for political gain...impeachment...the North Korea disaster...dog whistling...very fine people...tax returns never released...separating migrant children from parents...impeachment...asking for votes from Georgia officials...insurrection...pardons his swamp people...all to what? Collect lawsuits?
I would prefer we stay on point and would love some answers or reflections on the things I'm pointing out.
You see that list above? That's all quarters, I'll keep pointing out the evils of Trump and his cult no matter your taking it as a personal attack or not.
You are fucking bot
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