Bloomberg: Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan (Repeat)
(Bloomberg) -- (This story was originally published in Oct. 2020. It’s being republished to accompany our Big Take on the risks of attacking Taiwan.)
Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the U.S.
In September, People’s Liberation Army aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires any shots. Taiwan announced it would only shoot if attacked.
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WNU Editor: Taiwan is relying on the U.S. for help .... Taiwan Foreign Minister Calls US Help Critical to Deterring War with China (VOA).
6 comments:
Taiwan is severely dependent on oil imports through two oil ports..
Without oil, it'll rely on its strategic reserves, which will last 2 weeks tops
After that, it's military units come to a stand still
China cannot move without oil either. Tankers from the Middle east can be intercepted around India or the Straight of Malacca. The oil pipeline from Siberia can be blown up.
Think that it is unthinkable? If chips for Taiwan are no longer available the US might grind to a halt. Backed into a corner, a strike against a Siberian to China pipeline is very real.
You can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar
The CCP cannot catch Taiwan because of the way it is set up. It could catch it perhaps easily, if it were set up differently. Given a common culture and trade benefits to a union it could happen.
People could turn their noses up and sneer at "perhaps". People wargame (model) war scenarios. The model the climate. They model economic activity. Why not model how to form a union peacefully through trade mechanisms (barriers (e.g. tariffs) and the opposite) and cultural exchanges? You have model you would have percentages.
Or you could be Xi with a hammer and everything looks like a nail.
Last comment, true true but in fact China's model is not everything looks like a nail.. they ARE using US's old model of dollar imperialism, and quite effectively so. On top, in perhaps two generations, 40-50yrs no war will be needed to annex Taiwan as there are more who grow up pro China now
The dysfunctioning democracy in the US, see the last election and how one race is treated differently(see BLM) are a shock to them.. they want none of it
Oil is not going to be a massive deal breaker for them. Their fight will defensive. They are not going to be driving tanks men and supply trucks hundreds of miles across a battlefield.their air force is not making long range bombing runs under fughter escourt.
I feel sorry for you 8:18. Yours seems to a sorry attempt at dissuading people from helping Taiwan. You argue that China does not need much oil to exist.
Chinese planes do not need fuel to cross the straights. Chinese ships do not need oil for a 2 to 4 hour crossing. You assume that once China invades any oil embargo would cease after a few weeks.
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