Sunday, July 20, 2008

Chavez Goes Weapons Shopping in Russia Amid Regional Arms Race

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez was the guest of honor, together with Bolivia’s President Evo Morales for the symbolic indigenous inauguration of Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa.

From Bloomberg:

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow today to shop for tanks, air defense systems and other weaponry as Latin America's arms race quickens amid signs that his regional influence is waning.

Past Venezuelan arms purchases from Russia have strengthened ties with Moscow as its rivalry with the U.S. intensifies over President George W. Bush's plans for an Eastern Europe missile defense system and other issues. Chavez, 53, also plans to visit Belarus, a Russian ally that the U.S. considers a dictatorship.

Chavez ``regularly refers to us as an `empire,' opposes our initiatives in the Americas and seeks out our adversaries as friends and allies,'' Assistant U.S. Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Thomas Shannon said July 17 in testimony to a congressional committee.

Read more ....

More News On South America's Arm Race

Chavez eyes major arms purchases in Russia: Report -- Times Of India
Venezuela hails 'strategic partnership' with Russia -- RIA Novosti
A Controversial Trade: Russia Arms Sales To Venezuela -- Russia Profile
Venezuela is the most Violent Country in South America -- Oped News
New Brazil-Colombia defense cooperation agreement -- Blogging By Boz
Colombia to take part in Defense council Unasur -- Colombia Reports

My Comment: Latin America is quietly entering a phase in which two distinct and hostile political blocs are being assembled. On the one side are government's pursuing a socialist/liberal policy towards economic affairs, but with an anti-democratic agenda (i.e. opponents to the government need not apply). The titular head of this group is Venezuela, flushed with oil money and a certain zeal to influence neighboring countries. Latin American governments that are sympathetic and/or that have been bought are Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina (bribary scandal and a Venezuelan slush fund set up in Argentina is still making news), Nicaragua, and .... of course .... Cuba.

On the opposite side are countries like Colombia, Mexico (to a certain degree), Uruguay, Chile, Peru, and the 800 lb. gorilla in the room .... Brazil. Smaller countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, Guyana, Paraguay are neutral.

Latin American countries have gone to war in the past .... Chile, Bolivia, and Peru in 1879 - 1884, and Colombia/Ecuador/Venezuela came close to going to war this year. Trends indicate that the next conflicts will originate from ideological and economic disagreements, and the use of foreign policy to subdue or quiet dissent at home.

The concern is Venezuela. It is riding on an oil boom at the moment, but it has also pursued a policy of nationalization of industries and the suppression of dissidents (union leaders, church leaders, civil rights organizations) .... this suppression is increasing with time. Once the oil boom ends .... and all booms end .... the economic dislocation that it would cause will severely impact governments such as Venezuela's.

If history is any indication .... dictators with a messianic complex do not keep the peace for long.

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