Commentary: Iran's Nuclear Installations Are Not Going To Be Bombed

US Air Force's new stealth fighters F-22A Raptors fly over Kadena
US Air Base in Kadena town, southern island of Okinawa 18 February 2007.

The following is a summary of some of today's news:
India cautions US against backing Israel in Iran attack -- Daily Times
Iran attack would have 'uncontrollable' effects, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria warns -- The Telegraph
Syria: Attack on Iran Will Have Dire Consequences -- New York Sun

Numerous articles are now exploring what would be involved in attacking Iran. Ralph Peters "What Bomb Iran Really Takes" is today's example. There is also a new Iran assessment from Bill Gertz at the Washington Times -- "Inside The Ring", and Nick Louth from MSN Money writes about consequences in "What if Israel does attack Iran?".

My Commentary

But when you remove all the speculation, warnings, and politics .... it is clear to me that with the present force composition of U.S. and Israeli forces in the Middle East, it is not possible to launch a successful first strike against Iran.

A token bombing raid on a few nuclear installations in Iran will not significantly change Iran's timetable in continuing to enrich uranium. What it will bring is a war situation that will result in an exponential rise of terrorism, unstable governments, and a direct threat against the oil shipping lines. Economically ..... oil will be at $175 or more per barrel, a banking situation crippled, and a recession/depression being the norm until the situation is resolved. In the end Iran will be stronger, and we will be far more weaker. There is no strategic benefit for a minimum strike on Iran.

If an attack on Iran is to be done .... it will have to be done for maximum impact and duration. To cripple Iran's war making and nuclear enrichment capabilities for a long time. To demoralize the Iranian government ..... not to embolden them.

I am confident that if Israel and the U.S. are serious in countering Iran ..... and American policy has always functioned with a long term strategy in the region .... they will do everything to maximize their attack, and minimize any blow back.

Once the green light is given, we are now talking about a massive escalation of Intelligence, Army, Navy, and Air Force resources in the region. U.S. brigades will not be leaving Iraq now, they will be going there. Western Afghanistan will become an armed camp. A minimum of three naval carrier groups will be in the region, and the air force will be positioning their B-2 and other strategic bombing groups at Diego Garcia.

None of this is happening.

Further elaborating, the same preparation that went into the Iraq war will also be the same preparation for going to war with Iran. Once a "green light" is given it will take months to move assets into the region ..... and the sad fact is that the U.S. has limited resources. A major push will also be done diplomatically to prepare the public for war ..... this is also not happening.

President Bush is the only leader who has the will to confront Iran .... but his time is up in 6 months. The Iranians have successfully ran out the clock.

Iran's leaders know this. They have won and are now preparing themselves for the next phase by quickly developing a nuclear deterrent that will be used against their enemies abroad, as well as reinforcing Persian and Shiite nationalism at home. They are now in a position to be the dominant power in the Persian Gulf, and by being the dominant power they will now not only be in a position to control the flow of oil ..... but to also be in a position to influence the world.

The Atomic Scientist's "Doomsday Clock" is going to move closer to midnight next year.