The Evolution Of Savegery In Al Qaeda

From The Belmont Club:

Carl J. Ciovacco has a fascinating article on the evolution of savagery in al-Qaeda. It was surprising to learn that Osama bin Laden was, in the days immediately after the Soviet retreat from Afghanistan, extremely squeamish about shedding noncombatant blood. His reluctance to shed blood was rooted in religious prohibititions. The story of his gradual journey towards unlimited warfare was shadowed by religious doctrinal changes which he himself promulgated in order to justify his new policies.

Bin Laden lifted the restrictions on targeting noncombatants in 1997 — long before September 11 — during the depths of the Clinton Administration, and during the height of optimism about the “End of History” and the triumph of the European Union. In the midst of this self-congratulatory period, Osama bin Laden was declaring war on America. Not the US military, not the CIA, but every man, woman and child in the USA.

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My Comment: Carl J. Ciovacco and the Belmont Club are both accurately assessing ours and Al Qaeda's evolving strategy on how to fight and win. The battle field will now be propaganda, lawfare, etc .... a battle for the hearts and minds.

Quoting the Belmont Club:

While much of the debate over military strategy (especially by Presidential candidates) has dealt with the kinetic battlefields — numbers of brigades in Iraq versus Afghanistan for example — it is possible that the future strategies of al-Qaeda will avoid direct confrontations. Lawfare, proselytization, propaganda, etc may play an increasing role in their strategy and their corresponding means of coercion may evolve to emphasize targeted coercion rather than public displays of terror. Although al-Qaeda may continue its campaign of overt terrorism, a significant component of their activity may move into the background. This has always been the case and may become more so in the future.

Clinton Watts a former US Army Infantry Officer, FBI Special Agent and Executive Officer of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point who has studied how Jihadis are recruited, has observed that much of that effort takes place off the battlefield, in quiet backrooms in Islamic neighborhoods . By far the most effective vector for spreading radical Islamic terrorism are “former fighters”. Watts says,

Radicalization: Fear not what you can see, but what you cannot see. … Worry about the flow of fighters into Iraq. Worry more about the flow of fighters out of Iraq.