Iran Wielding ‘Soft Power’ Against America

Iran FM Mataki and Kuwaiti FM Mohammed Sabah al-Salem's
joint press conference (Reuters/al-Jazeera)

From Pajamas Media:

Tehran's quest to overthrow the existing order and dominate the Persian Gulf region is being cleverly strategized.

“If each Muslim throws a bucket of water on Israel,” said the late Ayatollah Khomeini, “Israel will be erased.” This immortal sentiment, and surreal image, captures the essence of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s public diplomacy campaign these last four years, one of the most effective uses of “soft power” in recent memory.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s threats to destroy Israel have so captured the hearts and minds of the Arab masses that they are too distracted to understand that the Persians are primarily coming after them. And the princes and presidents-for-life who rule the Arabs dare not speak the truth since they have promised for sixty years now to rectify the historical error that led to the establishment of the Zionist entity. With the reflexive Arab humiliation at the failure to annihilate a UN member state, the Khomeinists offer at least hope: if you can’t throw Israel into the sea, then take the sea to Israel — and bring your bucket.

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My Comment: Iran has always looked at the Persian Gulf and its neighbors as part of its sphere of influence. Since the Shah of Iran, this "cold war" between Sunni Arabs and Shiite Persians has been going on with the U.S. and its allies looking over everyone's shoulders.

The situation on the ground has changed since the invasion of Iraq and the successful quelling of insurgent groups (many supported by Iran) in the Shiite areas of the country. This failure by Iran has produced a vocal and increasing growing opposition movement in Iran itself.
To respond to this level of opposition, Iran is trying its best to divert attention to other issues. Its nuclear program and support of Shiite groups in the Middle East are prime examples in this change of policy.

I personally feel that with time the effects of "soft power" diplomacy will start to wane as conditions in Iran start to get worse. Gas lines in a country filled with oil, ethnic tensions and separatist movements in much of the non-Persian parts of the country, as well as U.S. support for opposition and political rights groups in Iran .... these factors are incredibly destabilizing for a government that is increasingly being perceived as illegitimate and weak.

To counter this .... the possibility of an armed conflict will increase. As in the 1980s when Iran first threatened the U.S. and its allies in the Persian Gulf, their actions resulted in an a humiliating defeat at the hands of the U.S. Navy. The same will probably occur again in 2008. But Iran's weak position may make it overplay its hands, resulting in the possibility of a serious escalation that it will not be able to contain. Hezbollah allies attacking American targets in the U.S. homeland, the sinking of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, or attacking critical Saudi Oil installations .... any or all of these actions will result in a war that will involve every major power on this planet.

This is not in anyone's interest, but if soft power does not work for Iran it's options are very limited.