Did Russia Plan It's Georgian Invasion And War

Russian soldiers travel past destroyed buildings in the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. The Kremlin has promised to start withdrawing combat troops from Georgia on August 18 as Western pressure mounted on Russia to quit the ex-Soviet republic. (AFP/Dmitry Kostyukov)

Georgia Invasion 'Planned Since April' -- The National

The Russian invasion of Georgia was not a spontaneous response to what Moscow called “genocide” in South Ossetia but had been planned in detail since April, according to Russia’s leading independent defence analyst.

The plans all but ensured that fighting would break out before the end of August, though the exact timing depended on how readily the Georgian government could be provoked into starting it, Pavel Felgenhauer states in a new analysis of the conflict.

It is generally agreed that the spark for the war was the Nato summit meeting in Bucharest in April at which Georgia was promised eventual membership of the western alliance, in the teeth of opposition from the Russians.

According to Mr Felgenhauer, Vladimir Putin, who was president of Russia at the time but now serves as prime minister, set in motion a range of measures to support the two separatist territories in Georgia – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – and prepare for a military incursion.

Read more ....

Update: Did Russia Plan Its War In Georgia? -- Eurasia Net

My Comment: Both articles present an interesting hypothesis, but there is no smoking gun that reveals that this entire affair originated from Moscow. The fact of the matter is that there has always been turmoil in the Caucasus. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union we have had an Armenian Azerbaijan war over Nagorno Karabakh, a Chechnya war, Beslan school massacre in North Ossetia, Dagestan ethnic strife, as well as continued ethnic strife among the other 20 different ethnic groups that make up the region. Even Georgia itself has had turmoil and rebellion among numerous factions since its independence.

The Chechnyan war guaranteed a large presence of Russian soldiers will always be stationed in the region, and that contingency plans have always been on the table in the event of war getting out of hand. The fact that Russian soldiers were able to mobilize within 24 hours is no surprise to me .... after the Beslan massacre in North Ossetia a large Russian military presence became a permanent fixture.

The problem in the Caucasus is that borders have been drawn that do not take into consideration the ethnic and religious composition of the area. Because of history, this has guaranteed political and social tensions that stem from ethnicity. Until borders are redrawn and this turmoil will only continue.

It is easy to blame the Russians for everyone's problems .... but this ignores the real problem which is that people in the region have never gotten along with each other.